Behind the screen of Minsk accords

We are likely to lose the entire Ukraine just as we have surrendered the Donbas

People went to the polls in the so-called “elections” held by the “LNR” for fear of starvation. There is no way one can blame them anymore, because each of them is now convinced that the Ukrainian government was not even going to liberate them

Writing about the Donbas now is akin to removing a bone stuck in one’s throat, or worse still, to pulling a rusty nail out of one’s chest. How does hope die? First, they take away your ability to leave the city. Then you may not walk around the city as well, and later still find yourself confined to your dwelling. They then turn off power, followed by telecommunications failing. The tap water is no more. The neighbors look at you suspiciously and discuss something behind your back increasingly often. You are already at the stage when every knock at the door of your home means trouble. To save your life, you run away from your home, your city, your region. But hope is still alive. Some people sitting around wide tables are arranging your destiny and you think that you just cannot fully understand what is happening. Suddenly, the gangsters who have driven you out of your land become a “party to the talks.” The president says your homeland is still enjoying peace somehow, and all who think otherwise are aggressive “clowns.” It turns out that simple official non-recognition of the realities is seen as enough to have them vanish, and all others have to just start believing in a virtual reality created by a handful of “negotiators” and officials.

Your question to one powerful person is cut off the air as not politically correct, because it refers to the fact that no peace does exist. It becomes clear now that someone has betrayed you, and hundreds of thousands of your countrypeople as well. Someone thinks you are not a citizen, someone just fooled you talking about national interests, while pursuing only his own financial interests. He keeps smiling at the camera as if nothing is happening. His smile, like an ugly evil creature sitting on the grave of your homeland, is destroying the very hope.

We certainly can make fun of the so-called “elections” in the Donbas which were held on November 2 and had elderly locals thronging the polls, just as we made fun of the “referendum” held on May 11. We can be ironic about the military “parade” held in the central squares of Luhansk on November 1, as we were on May 9. But over the nearly six months, it came to long queues replacing thin human streams at polls in Luhansk, and an old T-34, which roamed the region’s capital in May, has been replaced with whole columns of rocket launchers and ranks of well-equipped soldiers marching through the city.

Of course, residents of Luhansk were queuing less to cast a vote and more to get a social card and artificially cheap potatoes and cabbage, costing just one hryvnia per kilogram on the election day. We need to understand that these people are not just venal, it is their way to survive. People are afraid of hunger, because winter is coming. There is no way one can blame them anymore, because each of them is now convinced that the Ukrainian government was not even going to liberate them. They have been abandoned to their fate and will be called traitors hundreds of times – they, not those who gave the orders from Kyiv to surrender their hometown. People will laugh at them, not at those who are cynically smiling on TV. “Did not they want the LNR to win, after all?” the people will say. We can call a hungry grandmother, who survived the summer amid whistles of exploding mines, a homo sovieticus to our hearts’ content, but she is a citizen of Ukraine. She had never seen Oleksandr Yefremov, allowed into politics by Leonid Kuchma. Now, hunger drives her to this voting station because she will be given food there at least. Humiliated, she listens to a song by Vika Tsyganova and thinks of only one thing, it being her survival.

REUTERS photo

Try proving to the world now that the Donbas wants to stay with Ukraine. It is difficult to argue with pictures. Even if these elections were more like a vegetable market held at gunpoint and the number of voting stations was small, resulting in the dense queues, but the queues themselves have been recorded, even in Luhansk, which could be liberated back in August, and that orgy of criminality prevented from progressing! Suspiciously, the high command did not give the orders to attack then, as if waiting for the arrival of enemy reinforcements from Russia and then actually putting the Ukrainian soldiers in harm’s way. They were beaten then in Khriashchuvate and Novosvitlivka, in Stanytsia Luhanska and Vesela Hora. They were beaten by fresh forces from the occupied Luhansk which had not been liberated, maliciously so (I stress this!), before. If only it had, there would be no pseudo-elections and there would be no LNR with their dumb “prime ministers.” Instead, we went to sign the traitorous Minsk Agreements, which became the basis for surrendering the Donbas. Those negotiations were not about peace, but about guarantees – personal guarantees. Somebody had to preserve their power and wealth at the expense of the “peace,” which ended forever, in fact, on the day of the annexation of Crimea. “Peace” has become a screen hiding partition of our country and providing for the individual interests of the powerful. So, we should not blame Luhansk grandmothers, as they are only tools and victims, like all of us.

Someone obviously did not want to fight for the Donbas. Someone threw passionate Ukrainian patriots against a well-armed armada, giving them only small arms. Someone used “armistices” from the very beginning to send a message to the Kremlin that he was ready to leave an uncomfortable region in return for certain guarantees, but could not do so openly. Therefore, it was necessary to negotiate and fight a little, thereby getting rid of the dangerous layer of revolutionary-minded Ukrainians, and delimit the spheres of influence. Anyway, Kyiv never influenced the Donbas. Over 23 years of independence, who and what did it ever influence? Kyiv has always been a bazaar, not even a market, where some people have nicely traded territories, resources, positions, national interests, and so on.

Now is the time X and Vladimir Putin the global racketeer is torturing us. We have, pardon my Donbas expressions, turned to be just goofy victims who consumed pot instead of going to gym and now simply cannot fend for themselves. Now, Ukraine, while talking about the cheap coal from South Africa, will actually be buying it from the gangsters while paying kickbacks to the Kremlin. It is a regular case of racketeering and robbery, happening at the time when our president is successfully running his chocolate factories in Russia.

NOVEMBER 2, 2014. KYIV. SLOGAN READS: “THE DONBAS IS PROTESTING THE OCCUPATION INSTEAD OF VOTING IN SHAME ELECTIONS!” / Photo by Ruslan KANIUKA, The Day

Moreover, this racketeer Putin has made it clear to the world that he is ready to fight. His nuclear-capable Tu-95 bombers are not just buzzing under the noses of Russia’s neighbors. This is a racketeer’s knife, sending the message: “Do not approach me and do not interfere, because it is my area and I will rob it myself.” And now, Helmut Kohl (who, like Kuchma, is seemingly irrelevant, and so may say anything) regretted the sanctions against Russia. He is not the first former German chancellor who is so concerned about the economy of Muscovy. Helmut Schmidt and Putin’s friend Gerhard Schroeder condemned attempts to establish economic isolation of Russia as well. No, the world is not just apathetic on the issue of Ukraine. They just have long understood that Kyiv is a false capital, and so Ukraine does not behave as a state. So, helping a patient who would still sell their pills to buy cigarettes in their dying hour makes no sense. The world does not believe that this is the World War III and a large-scale aggression by Putin. It does not believe in our statehood either. We have volunteers, heroes and born soldiers, but unfortunately, we are only being born as a political nation and the neighbor obviously does not want our birth to end successfully. If Putin fails to destroy us now, the world will see a nation emerging in central Europe in the 21st century that proves its strength despite its bloody losses, poverty, and betrayal. Thus, sooner or later, we will have an adequate president and a people’s parliament rather than an auction. We will become a full-strength player then. That is why Putin will not stop. He will use all means at his disposal to destroy us, and the world will be watching and hiss with some perfunctory sanctions.

Are we ready for the next round of Putin’s aggression? A “Cossack” taken prisoner in Luhansk said that a strong thrust deep into Ukraine would start from November 4. Some say the same about November 5 or 6. The military situation in the east was described in minute detail by Facebook users. According to the InformNapalm group, and its data is confirmed by many other sources, Russia has been increasing its military presence in the Donbas. Videos with columns of Russian military vehicles entering he territory of Ukraine are everywhere on the Internet. The headquarters of the Anti-Terrorist Center told the press: “The early estimate is that most of the Russian army forces that were on the border with Ukraine, that is, near areas controlled by the militants, have entered the Donbas. They number thousands of soldiers and hundreds of vehicles.”

NOVEMBER 2, 2014. DONETSK OBLAST / REUTERS photo

Immediately after the national election, we witnessed attacks on the Ukrainian soldiers in several directions. It was a sort of reconnaissance in force. The frequent humanitarian convoys, which actually provided bribes for voters in the LNR and the DNR, began regular service on the Donbas route. The gangsters have been gradually replaced with regular military for a month. Currently, Ukrainian troops are flanking Luhansk from Shchastia and Stanytsia Luhanska. To get rid of them, the enemy is preparing a powerful attack via Bakhmutivka and Slovianoserbsk, which means that there is a threat of encirclement for our soldiers in these areas. Beyond Luhansk, the risk of attack exists in Debaltseve, Mariupol, Berdiansk, and Popasna. This implies that the Donbas, after the “elections” held on November 2, will be not just a separate area, completely free of any influence from Kyiv, but also a powerful springboard for further progress of the Russian offensive deep into Ukraine. Everyone is talking about the “corridor” to Crimea, which Putin allegedly wants to hack through. This geostrategy has another explanation as well. While Putin will beat us, we will pay up and surrender – pay for gas and surrender our lands and resources. We will negotiate with the torturer as a racketeer’s victim – with clenched teeth and being ready to give up anything. Meanwhile, the “elections” just held in the Donbas, with their broad photographic record, will serve as a proof globally that this region is entitled to act as a separate entity and, accordingly, formally ask for help from other countries, that is, Russia. The government in Kyiv still will not recognize the DNR, LNR and their “referendum” and “elections,” but will pay up and pay a high price all the same, with our money and with the Ukrainians’ lives, for it still does not know where it is going, just declaring some general directions. The actual steps towards NATO, made since the 1990s, have been frozen. The issue of Ukraine’s accession to the alliance, which would become a guarantor of our security, is not on the NATO agenda for... Ukraine has not filed a request for it. NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that it was decided in Bucharest in 2008 that Georgia and Ukraine would join the alliance some day, but Ukraine has not decided to apply since. Why would it? The defined course means defined criteria to be followed, and thus reduces the gap for bargaining. So, despite all the declarations, we actually plan to stay in the intercontinental cleft as an eternal victim. Someone probably finds it easier to negotiate with the Kremlin, to pay his bills at our expense, at the price of our lives.

By Valentyn TORBA, The Day

COMMENTARIES

Susan STEWART, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin:

“I do not see that there is much the US, the EU or its member states can do regarding the so-called elections in the Donbas. They will not be recognized by these actors, and the efforts to achieve implementation of the Minsk Protocols will continue, even if the elections were a violation of these protocols. I do not see another way to deal with the situation since any kind of military intervention by the West has been ruled out, and it is difficult to see how ‘the facts on the ground’ can be changed in the short term with other methods. At any rate, the ‘Contact Group’ under the auspices of the OSCE has already de facto accepted some of the separatist representatives as interlocutors, so it is unlikely that the elections will make a significant difference to the current negotiation formats. At the moment neither Ukraine nor the West appears to have an interest in the ceasefire ending, so any kind of radical action regarding the Donbas is unlikely, unless there is a serious escalation by the Russian/separatist side.”

John HERBST, former US ambassador (2003-06) to Ukraine:

“The ‘elections’ in the LNR and the DNR were a farce. No reputable observers or process. Plenty of Kalashnikovs. They are a violation of the Minsk process and are not considered   legitimate by the government in Ukraine, the EU, the OSCE or the UN. By recognizing the ‘elections,’ the Kremlin is violating its commitments under Minsk Protocols. A large armored column, reportedly with weapons, arrived in Donetsk this weekend from Russia. There are credible reports that Moscow intends for the forces in the LNR and DNR to take by arms the rest of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.

“The West should prepare new sectoral sanctions to be imposed if forces from the LNR and DNR seize more Ukrainian territory. The Obama Administration should reverse its strategically naive prohibition on defensive weapons sales to Ukraine. Such sale would make it harder for Moscow and its surrogates to take additional Ukrainian territory.”

 “RUSSIAN AND TERRORIST TROOPS HAVE FINISHED FORMING FOUR STRIKE BATTLE GROUPS”

Dmytro TYMCHUK, coordinator of the Information Resistance (IR) group:

“Over the past day, we observed a marked decrease in the activity of militants and Russian troops in the Donbas, linked to the so-called elections held by terrorist organizations known as the LNR and DNR. We have recorded the grand total of about 15 cases of shelling of the ATO forces’ positions and one terrorist attack committed at a checkpoint near the city of Mariupol.

“The total count of ceasefire violations committed by the Russian and terrorist forces since the signing of the Minsk Agreements is approaching 2,400.

“Over the past day, the hottest spots of the ATO area were Stary Aidar (four cases of shelling), Krymske, and Pavlopol (two cases of shelling each).

“The Russian and terrorist forces also fired on the positions of the ATO forces near Orlovske, Debaltseve, Cherevkivka, and Donetsk airport.

“At the moment, the Russian and terrorist troops have finished forming four strike battle groups:

— the Luhansk one (stationed in the area of Pervomaisk, Luhansk, and Stanytsia Luhanska);

— the Horlivka and Donetsk one;

— the Volnovakha and Telmanove one;

— the Novoazovsk one.

“These groups, as estimated by the IR group, include about 14,000 to 15,000 Russian mercenaries and regular soldiers of the Russian Federation, as well as 10,000 to 12,000 militants from local gangs.

“The groups are equipped with:

— 110 to 115 tanks;

— 250 to 280 armored fighting vehicles such as BMPs, BTRs, and MT-LBs;

— 80 to 100 cannon and rocket launchers;

— approximately 500 motor vehicles, ranging from the Russian army’s armored Kamazes and tankers to improvised gun trucks.

“The ‘re-forming of militia’ is continuing in the earnest. With the active assistance of Russian experts, the DNR and LNR’s leaders are conducting ‘amalgamation’ of gangs to create ‘line units and subunits.’ Currently, this process meets little success due to the extremely low level of discipline in the ranks of terrorists and their unwillingness to obey a single command.”

“IS IT THE MILITARY RESULT OF THE MINSK AGREEMENTS? WE KNOW THE POLITICAL RESULT ALREADY”

Yevhen MARCHUK:

“It is nice to see that Dmytro Tymchuk at least keeps informing the public on important issues. I think not only soldiers understand the subtext of his latest report. However, since the authorities are not providing any explanations or at least comments so far, many people, especially those not in the military and not engaging in politics, are trying to understand what the facts set forth in this report mean, and to understand in general what was happening over the past few days in and around the Donbas. Can it be that nothing much is happening, are these really just routine developments? This report prompts such loaded questions.

“Is it the military result of the Minsk Agreements? We learned the political result on November 2 already. It would be nice if there was more information on all engineering structures erected by the militants, especially those appearing after the Minsk Agreements’ signing, on all the newly installed systems and strong points of their anti-air defense, on the dynamics of radio broadcasts in their controlled area, especially coded ones, etc. etc., and on the new and highly efficient techniques created with Russia’s assistance to motivate the militants and their families. How can the region now be called, in military terms, following its evolution after the Minsk Agreements? What mean now these activities which we shyly call ‘Russian humanitarian convoys’ to this Ukrainian region, which have already become a kind of a scheduled service following the Minsk Agreements? Naturally, there are many questions of a technical nature as well. We now need some comments at least and an honest assessment of what is happening to be released by the authorities. People have already begun to do this without the authorities’ input. This is bad.”