believes Bruce JACKSON
“Does this mean the United States does not take the allegations against Ukraine seriously?”
“These are matters between governments. The US Committee on NATO does not represent the American government in any way. So far we are speaking only of a roadblock.”
“What threats might Ukraine face as a result of this roadblock?”
“This has caused a certain crisis in confidence. Question have arisen of Ukraine’s credibility for Euro-Atlantic system, and the trust that is supposed to exist in the relationship has been tested. There are obviously serious risks to Ukraine’s future. If it is discovered that Ukraine has breached UN sanctions, there could be a serious international problem. In spite of this, we stressed in all our talks with the Ukrainian side that the next three to four years offer this country a historic and highly favorable opportunity to achieve its national objectives. We shouldn’t waste a moment of this valuable historical time.”
“What might happen in these three or four years?”
“We divide this time into two periods. First, the pre-Prague period, before the summit, where we hope to achieve some specific things like intensified dialog and a clear path towards the Membership Action Plan. In the post-Prague period we are looking at 3.5 to 4 years that will divide the early summits of the decade (which are Prague and Copenhagen) from the NATO summits in the second half of the decade which, we think, will be around June 2006-2007. It’s that 42 to 48 months period which will be definitive for Ukraine.”
“What can Ukraine count on at the next NATO summit, joining the Membership Action Plan or maybe membership itself?”
“I think there is only one thing Ukraine can count on — that’s itself, its own reforms. Nothing is going to be promised. In theory, in my view, the MAP stage should actually take place a lot faster than in four years. For instance, the Polish government and political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski believe that even as early as after the Prague summit we should be able to speak about Ukraine approaching the MAP. At least, if not a majority in the West, some people believe that. I think by the end of this decade you should be thinking about membership.”
“What does NATO expect from Ukraine now when our state is in the epicenter of an international scandal?”
“My hope is that the US government can suggest various ways this concerns can be addressed. Many Ukrainian officials have mentioned that they were working on mechanisms for inspections, on disclosure that would remove the American administration’s concerns. Most parts of this mechanism concern increasing transparency and a sustained process of control. This will require a serious and sustained effort from the part of the Ukrainian government to restore the relationship.”
“The American government declared its intention to revise its policy towards Ukraine. Will NATO follow suit?”
“The US government has sent very high level team here. They wouldn’t send all those senior people if they didn’t care about the relationship with Ukraine. This is a big effort and sacrifice in this period of time. Obviously when the US government changes its policy on anything, it will notify its allies and consult them. Our hope is that these issues can be resolved in bilateral format, and there is no change in policy. Everybody in the Alliance hopes for the success of Ukraine’s democracy and that Ukraine will choose its own historical direction.”
“What is your view of Europe after the Prague summit? What role will Ukraine play?”
“Americans think that seven countries will be invited to Join NATO in Prague: three Baltic states, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria. Three countries (Albania, Croatia, and Macedonia) will not be invited. After Prague summit there will be more work to do with the reforming, reconstruction, and reintegration of the former Yugoslavia. Much Euro-Atlantic attention will be focused on the security issues in the Black Sea region. Ukraine has a significant role in stabilization in the Caucasus (human trafficking, drugs trafficking, etc.), which is important for the European security. All our European allies agree that closer and more intimate relations between Europe and Ukraine are one of the highest priorities in the post-Prague period. Presidents Kwasniewski and Havel who have very significant influence on President Bush’s opinion talk about the importance of Ukraine all the time. So I think there is a consensus everywhere that supporting and accelerating Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration is a priority for all countries, not only Ukraine.”
