By Viktor ZAMYATIN, The Day
It has happened. It has so long been the subject of articles, speeches,
and debates. Some shook their fists, others welcomed it, hoping to join
later, still others pretended it had nothing to do directly with them.
One of the dividing lines in Europe drawn by the Big Three in Yalta ceased
to exist when the joining of NATO by Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary
became juridically valid. It was only one line. For, at the same time,
a new, more serious and deeper line with a wall stronger than the Berlin
one is implacably being drawn by joint efforts. Confrontation, above all
political, is the main condition under which the Russian Empire may still
be restored. It is hard for Moscow to lose its clout, which seemed so natural
for so long, over Central Europe. The politicians of yesterday simply cannot
think in other categories, on the one hand, and play on the sentiments
of the masses who also feel pain to lose the role of citizens of a superpower,
on the other. "Yesterday's" politicians also exist in the West: this is
why NATO fails to spell out the main principles of its reform in plain
terms.
In spite of all the talk about indivisible security, the desire to put
up a fence, to draw a line between the well-off and the worse-off is a
reality. Also a reality is the desire to circle the wagons and continue
to divide the world so as not to lose oneself in one's own eyes. It is
an unenviable destiny to find oneself between these two realities, has
happened with Ukraine. Especially, when one tries to carry out true reforms
and create a normal civil society based on a solid, if still nonexistent,
middle class, and not to reduce the common people to the status of a silent
"electorate," if not slaves. There is nobody to follow the suit of the
European Commissioners who collectively resigned, being unable to rebut
accusations of corruption by functionaries, not ministers, i.e., what does
not happen in Ukraine. There is nobody to explain simply and honestly that
if we are to learn anything, it should not be from the East which has mostly
taught us general knavery over the course of centuries.
Under these conditions it is not strange that Kyiv has again hosted
Belarusian President Lukashenka with proposals, eternal as he is himself,
to become a third party in a fraternal union that might give a rebuff to
all those who would encroach on their brotherly unity. As a result, we
cannot but continue to look Moscow in the mouth, while the train of Europe
passes full speed ahead without even slowing down at the station called
Ukraine. It is clear why Moscow studiously revives its confrontation with
the West. It finds the role of feared and respected adversary natural and
even comfortable. It is also clear why Lukashenka feels uncomfortable outside
this line: he has no other field to play on. What is not clear is why Ukraine
needs all this: it is historically bored with being a buffer, a bridge,
or a part of Eurasia.
INCIDENTALLY
In terms of conventional arms, the force ratio between Russia and NATO
in the European theater of war operations is now one to three in favor
of the alliance. And, according to the Russian military, using the airfields
of the new members it is now quite possible for the alliance to carry out
massive air strikes of Smolensk, Briansk, and Kursk even using tactical
aviation, which had been impossible when NATO was 650-700 km. away from
Russia.
On the other hand, Polish, Czech, and Hungarian officials have repeatedly
admitted that there was no need for stationing on their territory permanent
contingents from other NATO members, as well as the Alliance's nuclear
weapons. As for the latter, there were also declarations from the NATO
leadership. The conventional arms of the three nations meet the Alliance's
requirements only partially. The programs for their adaptation and upgrading
have been designed for an average period of 10 to 15 years, after which
the total number of arms will decrease. There is also little use of their
300 airfields, for they cannot receive NATO airplanes due to their navigation
equipment and the flight preparation procedures. And modernizing all those
airfields is a too costly a business to be treated seriously.







