Bidzina’s shadow over the new government

On Sunday, the inauguration ceremony of the new president Giorgi Margvelashvili took place in Georgia. At the same time, another event happened in the country: Georgia stopped being a presidential republic and turned into a parliamentary one. Let us remind that Margvelashvili, protege of the now former prime minister, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, defeated the candidate from the opposition United National Movement Davit Bakradze during the October elections.

According to the new constitution, the president has powers and responsibilities, but they are minor in comparison to the ones that Mikheil Saakashvili had.

Margvelashvili, who received a degree in philosophy, is a former dean of the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs. He also occupied the post of the minister of education in Ivanishvili’s government. The philosopher president is the fourth leader of Georgia and the first one to supersede his predecessor in a legal way, without a revolution or a coup, BBC notes.

In his inaugural speech Margvelashvili said that Georgia was going to continue keeping to the policy of rapprochement with the EU and NATO. “A citizen of Georgia as an individual is a European, an integral part of Western civilization,” he said. At the same time, the new president also noted that the country was ready to “deepen the dialog with Russia” and solve problem “on the basis of mutual trust.”

While commenting on the confirmation of his ally as president, Ivanishvili said that “the real democracy came to Georgia” with his inauguration. “We are going to have a truly European president Giorgi Margvelashvili,” Ivanishvili added.

However, journalist Misha TAVKHELIDZE is skeptical about the new president. “It will be hard for him to influence the political situation in Georgia [based on the new constitution. – Ed.]. He does not appoint the Cabinet of Ministers, cannot influence it in any way, etc. Besides, Margvelashvili himself is a weak figure. That is why I would not expect him to perform any vigorous political activity or an attempt to influence the events,” said Tavkhelidze in his commentary to The Day.

Irakli Garibashvili succeeds Ivanishvili to become the new prime minister of Georgia. His candidacy has already been approved by the new president. Garibashvili himself presented the new Cabinet that consists of 17 ministers.

“Our new prime minister is a little over 30. I would say that he is Bidzina Ivanishvili’s puppet,” Tavkhelidze continues. “He will lead wherever Bidzina tells him to. It is not likely that he will make independent decisions. During the last year, when he was the minister of internal affairs, some had an impression it was some sort of a game for him. In reality, Bidzina Ivanishvili will rule Georgia, no matter who becomes president or prime minister.”

Meanwhile, according to Tavkhelidze, there will be no real struggle for Saakashvili’s legacy. “It will be very hard to explain why people have to live worse than during previous years. This struggle will go on the staff level (“old” men will be replaced by new ones). Bidzina Ivanishvili will hardly dare start a criminal investigation against Saakashvili. And he already put to jail the ones he wanted to,” the journalist says.

The Day addressed the political scientist Nika Chitadze (Tbilisi) and the editor-in-chief of Rezonansi newspaper Lasha Tugushi with a question: to what extent will the new Georgian government be influential and independent from Ivanishvili?

“IVANISHVILI WILL STRIVE TO CONTROL THE POLITICS”

Nika CHITADZE, political scientist:

“Margvelashvili’s influence on this stage will be significantly weaker due to the fact that according to the amendments to the constitution, the institute of the president is weakened, while the influence of the prime minister and the parliament grow stronger. I think that the main political weight will be concentrated in the prime minister’s hands. The president does not possess the legislative initiative in the parliament anymore, his role in domestic and foreign policies of the country is smaller. He will need the government’s support for signing various international agreements. So, a new era comes to Georgia, the era of a half-parliamentary model, when a president is chosen in a general election.

“Prime Minister Garibashvili’s leadership will depend on the frequency of Ivanishvili’s interferences with the political processes. Perhaps, he will influence only some of them. If in this case Garibashvili will lead a more independent policy, he will be able to improve the social and economic situation in Georgia. He has Western education and experience of working in the government bodies, in private and state sectors in particular: he was Georgia’s minister of internal affairs. On the other hand, during that time he was under influence of Ivanishvili and it cannot be said that the police was an apolitical body.

“I think that Ivanishvili will try to control the politics, and it will not influence political processes in Georgia and its integration into European and Atlantic structures in a positive way.

“Some pressure is applied to Saakashvili, and the new government will try to influence the political activity of the main opposition force, since the last elections showed that the National Movement is the main opposition force in the country. That is why an information war will be waged in order to lower its popularity. On the other hand, the pressure will not be radical, because Georgia is to undertake certain obligations within the framework of the Vilnius Summit. If it is going to have responsibilities before the EU, the pressure will be weakened, but on the other hand, I expect some problems.”

“WE ARE USED TO LIVING WITHOUT THE BAD LEGACY FROM THE SOVIET UNION”

Lasha TUGUSHI, editor-in-chief, Rezonansi:

“Despite the fact that the new president does not have the powers of the previous one, he is a member of a political team. He is not an ‘old’ player – he came to the government after the rise of Georgian Dream. Margvelashvili was an education minister, and before that – a dean of one of Georgian universities. We can talk about formalities only at the moment, because he does not have any outstanding political past. He will just play in the Dream’s team.

“Ivanishvili has great influence on the prime minister and other members of the team. I would not say that Garibashvili would be a ‘puppet’ prime minister. We need to wait and see how they will work. However, I hope that their work will follow the path of democratization and modernization, because the parliament’s role is consolidated. Its head has already said that the parliament will not just bob its head to the Cabinet’s proposals. I think that the work will continue in this direction and we will have an ability to view the political processes in a more sober way.

“As for Ivanishvili himself, it is hard to say what place he will occupy after the resignation. We hope that the political processes will be open to the maximum. This is the task for the Georgian democracy to decrease the number of backstage games and increase transparency. I hope that the civic society and mass media will play a great role. Despite the fact that this is a new situation for us and we do not have much experience of living in democracy, I hope our society will overcome this. We will develop and move forward.

“One of Mikheil Saakashvili’s achievements is a large and very active faction in the parliament. It includes weathered politicians. Of course, Saakashvili made mistakes and accomplished achievements. I think we are not rolling backwards. His achievements will be preserved.

“During the last year his authority was rather formal, because he handed the actual power over to the Cabinet of Ministers. However, the situation has not changed: when Saakashvili was the president, the police did not accept bribes. It is still the same way today. It can be said that we are used to living without the bad legacy of the Soviet Union. This is the achievement of Saakashvili and his government. I think we made a step forward by changing the government through these elections. Now we see new tasks: intensification of democracy and improvement of economic situation. So far, there are no grand changes in the economy, but I hope the promises Georgian Dream gave before the elections will be kept, as well as the reforms that were promised to the citizens.”