A bit of realism…

Ukraine continues watching the premier-cabinet saga unfold. This is actually a drama with a cast and plot, with the most disgusting part of the plot being the ongoing political crisis and haggling, when people die under enemy fire almost every day, when Ukrainian servicemen and public activists are in Russian prisons (although the Savchenko theme appears to have faded from front pages while the intrepid young woman is on a lethal dry hunger strike). All this spells numerous risks and losses for this country.

Events “upstairs” have taken a swift course. Yatseniuk’s resignation seems to have given a fresh impetus to the talks in parliament and the process has become continuous. On Monday everybody expected to hear about Volodymyr Hroisman’s appointment as the next head of government, but toward the evening there appeared information about the man having refused the post, to be refuted several hours later when several MPs from various factions said the matter was still being discussed by members of the Petro Poroshenko Bloc and People’s Front – and most importantly, by Poroshenko, Yatseniuk, and Hroisman.

“All this was a well directed political show meant to demonstrate that Volodymyr Hroisman is an independent political figure,” a PF parliamentarian told The Day on condition of anonymity, adding, “Poroshenko tasked Kovalchuk with monitoring Hroisman and the man must’ve been chagrined. Anyway, Kovalchuk is de facto First Deputy Prime Minister.”

As it is, the Verkhovna Rada can’t put a new government to the vote before having a new coalition. To have this coalition, a new tactic has been adopted of late, with two factions, PPB and PF, putting together this coalition without the Samopomich, Radical Party, and Batkivshchyna. The possibility of joining either of the two factions has been negotiated with various MPs. On Monday, Deputy Speaker Parubii declared that from now on, two ex-Svoboda MPs, Yurii Bublyk and Serhii Rudyk, Volia Narodu’s Andrii Nemyrovsky, and the unaffiliated Serhii Mishchenko would be members of the Poroshenko Bloc. In other words, the current regime is enacting the good old tushka/turncoat scenario that proved its worth during Kuchma and Yanukovych’s presidencies. Using this tactic, both factions have increased their total membership to at least 226 MPs.

Photo by Mykola TYMCHENKO, The Day

Various sources offer varying information concerning the next Cabinet and VR leadership. The latest, offered by Hroisman, has it that Vitalii Kovalchuk will be First Deputy Prime Minister; Pavlo Rozenko, Deputy Prime Minister for Humanitarian Matters; Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration, and that a new post, Deputy Prime Minister for ATO and Occupied Territories, will be instituted, to be occupied by Volodymyr Kistio. Oleksandr Saienko will be Minister of the Cabinet of Ministers; Lilia Hrynevych, Minister of Education; Maksym Nefiodov, Minister of Social Policy; Oleksandr Danyliuk, Minister of Finance, with the seat of Minister of Economy remaining vacant for the time being. Oleksandr Reva will be Minister of Health; Volodymyr Omelian, Minister of Infrastructure (there is as yet no candidate for the portfolio of Minister of Fuel and Energy); Ostap Semerak, Minister of Ecology; Pavlo Klimkin, Minister of Foreign Affairs; Stepan Poltorak, Minister of Defense; Taras Kutovy, Minister of Agro-Industrial Complex; Yevhen Nyshchuk, Minister of Culture.

Below MPs comment on the latest trends.

HROISMAN WANTS NEW CABINET TO BE HIS TEAM

Oleksandr CHERNENKO (Petro Poroshenko Bloc):

“I see no conflict between the PPB and Hroisman in regard to the Cabinet membership. There will be the post of first deputy prime minister come what may, considering that the head of government won’t be able to cope with all problems by himself. However, there is a personal aspect. While assuming full responsibility for the government’s work, Hroisman will want to have people whom he knows and can rely upon. He doesn’t want to head a government whose members he doesn’t know in the Cabinet seats. He knows he will have to answer for each Cabinet failure, so he wants that Cabinet to be his team, because he’ll be able to accomplish more that way. Hroisman is a politician and he has to bear in mind his political future. We have agreed that the Cabinet membership will be finally adopted on Tuesday or Thursday. The president has promised to submit a candidate for the post of prosecutor general after consultations.”

PPB MUST PROVIDE VOTES REQUIRED FOR COALITION

Andrii TETERUK (People’s Front):

“After the People’s Fronts sees [that events have taken the right course], we’ll add our 81 votes plus that of Andrii Parubii and continue to work consistently in parliament. We will make every effort for this parliament to pass bills that will bring Ukraine closer to Europe – as we have been doing every day. It is thanks to the People’s Front that the situation in Ukraine remains controllable; we can see that several factions that first undertook to build Ukraine’s European vector of development, as set forth in the Coalition Agreement, are unable to do so; they’re making all kinds of statements, even about early elections, and all this proves their irresponsibility. I don’t like the way the PPB is negotiating the new Cabinet. I believe that changing power in time of war is dangerous. There is the risk of early [parliamentary] elections and some of my colleagues want to play out a scenario when they’ll vote for Yatseniuk’s resignation and won’t vote for the new prime minister. We seem to forget that our country is in a state of war and that our enemy is considerably stronger, launching terrorist attacks, firing at our military positions, trying to make the government respond to this factor.”

DISCUSSION RE CABINET STRUCTURE, NOT MEMBERS

Oleksii HONCHARENKO (Petro Poroshenko Bloc):

“During a meeting of our faction Tuesday morning, we discussed the agenda of the day: Arsenii Yatseniuk’s resignation. We have admitted a new member, Serhii Mishchenko, so now our coalition has 226 votes in parliament. We’re planning a meeting of the coalition and will submit candidate Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman for the president’s approval. In fact, the president has promised to return our statement [with his signature] other than by means of Ukrposhta, so Mr. Hroisman can be appointed as head of government forthwith. After that Prime Minister Hroisman will present his Cabinet team, we will interview the candidate ministers and put the Cabinet membership to the vote.

“What we discussed with Mr. Hroisman was the Cabinet’s structure, not members. Among other things, he didn’t think the post of first deputy prime minister was warranted while our faction regarded it as a necessity. Finally, we persuaded him and he suggested Mr. Kovalchuk. We held consultations, including with our foreign partners, concerning the Cabinet membership proposed by Volodymyr Hroisman and we see no problems there.”

HROISMAN ACCEPTS KOVALCHUK, THE BALL IS RUNNING

Oleksandr KIRSH (People’s Front):

“The way the coalition is being formed in Ukraine is shoulder to shoulder, side by side on the one hand, while on the other, it is by gritting one’s teeth, keeping one’s eyes and mouth shut, plugging one’s ears. Before Yatseniuk’s resignation, the PPB had 228-230 votes, Hroisman, and Lozhkin. After his resignation, no such votes, no Lozhkin, but problems with Hroisman. On Tuesday, they could hardly scrape up 226 votes. Whom were all those Poroshenko’s messages – “Do it now,” “In one day…,” etc. – addressed to? The People’s Front isn’t throwing any monkey wrenches in anyone’s work as all our requirements concerning the Cabinet members have been met. PF will still have Avakov, Petrenko, possibly Kyrylenko, also Hrynevych as Minister of Education, and Semerak as Minister of Ecology. However, the requirement of various PPB groups turned out to be much harder to meet. Finally, they came to terms and only several Cabinet seats remained disputable. Assuming that Hroisman has agreed to Kovalchuk, the ball is running.

“In fact, both Hroisman and Kovalchuk are Poroshenko’s men, but they’re also aiming in different directions. As far as I can see, Hroisman is Vinnytsia-affiliated, the way Yanukovych was Donetsk-affiliated. The Vinnytsia group isn’t that close to Poroshenko and there are certain differences there, but not antagonistic ones. All things considered, the new government will be formed quickly and I don’t rule out the possibility that they’ll even vote for overruling the negative assessment of the Yatseniuk’s Cabinet. Otherwise, it would be inconsistent, I mean the negative assessment and the People’s Front’s quota not decreasing but increasing.

“Apparently, the issue of the new prosecutor general has much to do with all this. I would very much want this candidacy discussed and agreed upon. If it’s Yurii Lutsenko, then the law will have to be amended. But if we start adjusting laws to certain political figures, one day we will want to have a law adjusted to a dancer. We have been through this, when [Lenin said that] every cook could rule the state, when the head of the National Bank of Ukraine had been in charge of the obshchak criminal community’s fund in a Bolshevik penitentiary. All this is history, so whoever becomes the next prosecutor general must have a law degree, even if received after studying by correspondence.”