Bruce JACKSON: “If you have a problem, solve it at the elections in 2015”

President of Transitional Democracies Project Bruce Jackson often comes to Ukraine and his visits often coincide with crises in our country. We started our conversation with him with the disparities between Maidan in 2004 and current Euromaidan.

“The crisis in 2004 was essentially a theft of an election. So, the protests had legitimacy, because people were denied a democratic outcome. So, there was a crime against democracy and demonstrations on the Maidan were completely political. You had political leaders on all the stages, they organized the political movement. And they were clearly about going back to free and fair election. So, the protests were constitutional in their nature.

“That’s not what occurred this time. There was no theft of democracy. There was rather a failure of the government to make the right decision. It’s regrettable, but it’s still constitutional. The demonstrations on the streets were considerably smaller. And for the first week or two they had no political leaders. So, it’s not obvious that they anticipate the next election. They are more against bad decisions of the government than they are for things. So, I guess that the big question at the moment is whether this is going to become a political movement and who in the opposition is going to emerge as the credible alternative to the current government. So far that is not clear. And there’s a lot of going back and forth between the possible candidates. Rather unexpectedly Yulia Tymoshenko is a distant memory. The crowd does not seem to be interested in her. And there’s clearly another generation: Klitschko, Yatseniuk, Poroshenko, who are competing for leadership.

“In 2004 there was a clear cause – illegal activity in the second round and there was a clear remedy – a new election and the third round. And they were very closely connected. This crisis has passed through multiple incarnations in a week. First it was the crisis of Europe and Vilnius, then there was the crisis of the street, then there was the crisis of violence and repression. There was a choice between revolution and repression, neither of which was democratic. Then the United States reacted in a big way. And now Ukraine: this is the crisis between Russia and America. And that’s not good for Ukraine either. So, this crisis has been changing every day. Now the question is that now the non-violent protest becomes politics. I think the American ambassador and the American representatives have clearly said that the future of Ukraine is within the constitutional boundaries of Ukraine, which means if you have a problem, solve it in 2015 elections, both sides. And the question is when this begins.”

What can you say about the statement of British journalist Edward Lucas, who said in his commentary on the failure of the summit in Vilnius that Europe did not understand that there is a geopolitical war for Ukraine between Russia and Europe?

“Some of the statements in the Maidan have been too extreme in revolutionary sense. And many of the statements in the West have been too extreme in intellectual sense. I don’t know why people get so excited, maybe because of too much Christmas brandy.

“There is clearly a crisis with Europe. Europe worked for 4.5 years for policy and it got very close to the policy for the East, but it failed.”

Why did it fail?

“The Eastern Partnership was both too much and too little. Too much for Russia and too little for Ukraine. I think the idea at the end – Ukraine was forced to do two-thirds of the entire acquis communautaire to get very little. And the EU did not seem to notice that this was a financial crisis, not a crisis about Yulia Tymoshenko. And there was no money in the package for Ukraine.

“It will be correct to say that Russia wanted more than Europe. Europe was very tentative about all this. So, I think some of the best thinkers in Europe recognized, when it got to Vilnius, that they had a wrong package. We should have gotten visa liberalization to the young generation here two or three years ago.”

But it is the current government that should be blamed for not fulfilling needed conditions for implementing visa-free regime. For example, we don’t have any biometrical passports yet.

“We’ve had 27 visit from presidents Cox and Kwasniewski who talked about Yulia Tymoshenko. How many visits did we have to talk about biometric passport? Zero. They weren’t working on some of the issues that were most important. And they were so proud to give Ukraine provisional application of DCFTA. Ukrainians did not want provisional application of DCFTA. They needed to defer it, because they have trade wars with Russia this year. And it turned out that at the end the AA and DCFTA were very rigid, not flexible.

“I agree. Ukraine was not doing the reforms as fast as everybody wanted. But the EU was slow to understand that and adjust.”

Adjust its policy to give the prospect of membership?

“Some of these could be stretched out. For instance, if you do all three conditions for IMF, I’ll give you 15 billion dollars. How about if I do half of one, you give me one billion? Europeans should have made these things easier rather than say, we will give you all or nothing.

“The European Commission got the idea that Ukraine is not serious about Europe and so now they have stopped. But it’s only a halt. It’s very unfashionable to say at the moment that there’s always can be a relationship with Russia, between Ukraine and Russia; the idea of pushing Russia back is absurd.

“Frankly, we don’t have the money to fix Ukraine. We don’t have the trade relationship that we need. We definitely need Ukraine to have a serious trade relationship with Russia that will be stable and reliable for both parties. And if Russia wants to lend some money to Ukraine, along with the IMF and the EU, it’s good.

“Those who say that everything that is going on between the US and Russia is about Ukraine is wrong. We may have differences with Russia between ourselves. That’s true. But we aren’t fighting over Ukraine. If America starts fighting with Russia about things, we will forget about Ukraine. The EU should not have said, either Russia, or Europe. There is not an ‘either or’ discussion. This got to be a ‘both’ discussion.

“There should be a mechanism between Russia and Europe to talk about this, so that neither of both sides made mistakes, which both sides made. Both sides hurt Ukraine in the end. But the question now is how do we get back to what is normal.”

After the beginning of Euromaidan, the American presence has been felt quite well in Ukraine. Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State John Kerry have expressed their opinion concerning the events in Ukraine, and Victoria Nuland has visited Ukraine twice, in particularly, the Maidan. And senators John McCain and Chris Murphy have recently visited Ukraine as well. Can it prevent Ukrainian government from using force against peaceful protests?

“Americans like to think they are responsible for the sun coming up in the morning, as if we cause everything to happen. It’s not exactly true. I think everybody, including the president of Ukraine, was shocked at the violence on December 1. And everybody agrees there can be no violence.

“I think senator McCain spoke very precisely in favor of peaceful protest, solidarity with the people of Ukraine. All US representatives were clearly talking that popular protest leads to democratic elections.

“I think America can help a lot with the IMF relationship, because the US is the largest shareholder in that bank. But it’s not a private bank of American citizens, there are other shareholders. I don’t think we are the right people to discuss Ukraine with Russia. I think the best outside relationship that is the most important to Ukraine is the European relationship. You have a close history with Europe, you have more trade. America is too far away. The United States is a junior partner to Europe in this.”

How this “poisoned triangle of Ukraine, Russia, and Europe,” like James Sherr put it in his article, can be made healthy?

“I think what happened in Vilnius, the most important star was Europe, and the least important was America. And Russia was not really upfront. What happened in this crisis period turned the triangle upside down. Obviously, Europe is hurt and disappointed. I think when we look at the triangle upside down, it’s pretty ugly. And we will feel much better if we get it the right way up again. I hope we will can get back to that as soon as the new year begins. Assuming we have no violence today, assuming we don’t do anything stupid, and assuming that politics picks up the issue of protests. Then I will think the election campaign will be started by both sides by February. And this campaign will last for a year, like we do in the United States. It will be a long campaign.”

The EU says that the Association Agreement cannot be changed, only signed, and the Ukrainian government says about the need of reconsideration of this agreement. What can be a way out?

“EU High Representative Catherine Ashton said that. Never say never in politics. I understand the Europeans are very angry because they spent 4.5 years for a document. They are ready to sign it, but the other party walks out. But in the end of the day there is going to be a relationship in Europe. And efforts need to be made to define that relationship. This Commission has five more months until the European elections. But really they will be hanging on until November. Clearly, Commissioner Fuele is the most excellent person in Europe on these issues. If anybody looks at making changes, it should be Stefan Fuele. At the moment the Europeans need assurances from the government that they are committed to this process.

“But I would prefer not to wait for 15 months till a new government gets the redrafting process started. This is the first time the EU’s written a treaty of this nature. I am sure you will have to appeal to the EU Council of Ministers and ask for permission to get the redrafting process started. So, we need to get both processes restarted in January, in particular the negotiations with the IMF, involving the EU. And the first thing that is needed is stability and predictability in Russian relationship, what will the agreements with Russia be, what will be the gas discounts. Ukraine has some inside work to do. In particular, the Ukrainian government needs a rotation to be made, certain officials should not be working. These decisions have to be made. The protesters have to find their own candidates. So everybody has some work to do.”