Budapest makes a bad mistake

These days another round of tension between Yerevan and Baku is caused by Hungary’s extradition of Ramil Safarov, an Azerbaijani officer who killed an Armenian officer with an ax in 2004 and who was instantly pardoned in Azerbaijan. Safarov was sentenced to life in Hungary for this murder, but was extradited to Azerbaijan as part of a convention signed by Baku and Budapest that provides for serving a term in the convict’s home country. On arriving home Safarov was suddenly pardoned by President Ilham Aliyev. Azerbaijani news agencies report that Safarov has returned to the army after being promoted to major.

Yerevan was outraged by Baku’s pardon and President Serzh Sargsyan ordered diplomatic relations with Hungary severed. He noted that Budapest had made a serious mistake by extraditing Safarov. There are no diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The Hungarian deputy foreign minister told the Azerbaijani ambassador that Budapest considers Safarov’s pardon to be unacceptable and condemns the decision. The National Security Council’s spokesman, Tommy Vietor, stated on Friday that the Azerbaijani President’s decision is “contrary to ongoing efforts to reduce regional tensions and promote reconciliation. The United States is also requesting an explanation from Hungary regarding its decision to transfer Safarov to Azerbaijan.”

Baku countered that the decision was made in accordance with the law. The President’s spokesman, Fuad Aleskerov, declared that “Ramil Safarov was pardoned in keeping with the Constitution and legislation, with an eye to the convention on transfer of convicts.”

The Day asked experts on Azerbaijan and Armenia for comment.

SEVERE RHETORIC WILL CONTINUE BUT WITHOUT MILITARY ACTION

Farid KAKHRAMANOV, independent journalist, Baku:

“Severe rhetoric will continue, but there will be no military action. The international mediators will not allow it. The OSCE Minsk Group (the US, the Russian, and the French ambassadors as co-chairmen) met with the Armenian foreign minister in Paris on Sunday (these diplomats have been responsible for the settlement of the Karabakh issue since 1992). The Azerbaijani foreign minister has flown to Paris. I hope that the international mediators and world centers of power will do everything they can lest there be military action and escalation on the fronts.”

Armenia’s outrage was predictable, wasn’t it?

“Many in Armenia, including ranking officials, were involved in crimes against Azerbaijani civilians during the hostilities in Karabakh in 1992. A criminal case has been opened and there are the names of high-ranking officials of the Armenian leadership, even the defense minister who was directly involved in the hostilities. As for the transfer of the Azerbaijani officer, it was done in accordance with a European convention.”

Secret arrangements are said to have been made between Budapest and Baku, that the Hungarian government knew about the pardon, and that in return for his extradition the Azerbaijani government would buy Hungarian government shares worth 2 billion dollars.

“These are allegations. There is no formal confirmation. Besides, they wouldn’t have anything to do with this transaction. Azerbaijan is actively investing in former socialist republics that are experiencing financial hardships; also, in Serbia, Croatia, and Montenegro.”

Some experts believe that the new round of tension between Baku and Yerevan plays into Moscow’s hand, considering that Moscow wants Armenia to be a member of the Eurasian Union.

“I don’t think that Russia has some special intentions in this case. Armenia remains independent of Russia and Moscow isn’t likely to need special leverage.”

Anyway, this case isn’t likely to help settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

“That’s right. One can expect mounting confrontation in both societies. On the other hand, the Azerbaijani officer’s extradition may help the general understanding that this dead-ended, frozen conflict is really dangerous, that any wrong move or collision can aggravate the situation. For as long as this Azerbaijani territory is occupied, there will remain the threat of another war. This issue must be settled. The Madrid Principles proposed by the OSCE Minsk Group include the withdrawal of troops from the vicinity of Nagorno-Karabakh and granting it a temporary status until the final solution to the problem is found. The mediators believe this would move the issue off the ground, but Armenia rejects this option.”

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan has declared that his country doesn’t want another war, but that it is prepared to fight and win the battle. Is Azerbaijan prepared to fight to liberate the abovementioned territories?

“Such statements have been made on more than one occasion. Considering that part of its territory is occupied, Azerbaijan is building up its potential. However, its political leadership has repeatedly stressed that peaceful means haven’t been exhausted. Also, compared to 1992, the balance of military forces in the region has changed in Azerbaijan’s favor. Owing to large oil revenues, this country can spend more on its defenses. On the other hand, there is military rhetoric, of course, but Azerbaijan will continue to rely on peaceful means of solving this problem.”

THERE IS LITTLE LIKELIHOOD OF WAR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS

Emil DANELYAN, analyst, journalist, Yerevan:

“Few in Armenia believe that Hungary didn’t know about the Azerbaijani officer’s pardon. Most are convinced that money played its part. Several days before his extradition there emerged information to the effect that Azerbaijan plans to buy Hungarian bonds worth some two billion dollars. The Hungarian prime minister visited Baku two months ago and the Azerbaijani side mentions arrangements having been made. I don’t think that the Hungarian side was sure that the convict wouldn’t be pardoned.”

What consequences can this case have for the bilateral relationships and settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

“Pardoning the Azerbaijani officer will have a negative effect on the talks with the OSCE Minsk Group, even if these talks didn’t stand much of chance anyway. Now this chance has become smaller.

This case can also be bad for the relations between Armenia and the EU, particularly in terms of Eastern Partnership. So far there has been no response from Brussels or from big EU countries. Armenia may find its participation in the Eastern Partnership process frozen, specifically in regard to the Association Agreement that is showing good progress in the FTA sphere, including simplified visa procedures. The [Armenian] government has worked in that direction rather actively, being interested in stepping up the process. And this considering that Russia has been pressuring Armenia for the Eurasian Union membership in the past several months (this union being Vladimir Putin’s brainchild). Even though Armenia was in a delicate situation, its government managed to continue moving in the European direction.

“If the European response disappoints the Armenian government’s expectations, it may fold up its European plans and do a complete about-face on Russia, even Iran. There is a great deal of public pressure in Armenia, so the government has to do something about it. In the absence of response from Europe this situation can have serious geopolitical consequences.”

What do you expect from Russia, considering that it hasn’t made any statements in regard to this case?

“A number of analysts have been wondering about Russia’s silence. It is playing its own geopolitical game and serving its own interests. It would be naive to expect any reaction from Russia in the absence of one from Europe. Few in Armenia expect Putin’s administration to lend a moral helping hand or at least take a purely ethical stand. Europe is where most hopes are being placed, what with humane values and human rights being often discussed there. We believe that Russia is content to watch this situation take its current course because there is the opportunity of Armenia’s about-face on Russia, considering the traditionally strong military and economic ties between the two countries, although our government has been trying to practice differentiated approaches on the international arena, moving in the Western direction, upholding cooperation with NATO and EU. Now the situation can change.”

Your President said his country doesn’t want another war, but is prepared to fight and win. Does this mean that Armenia is prepared for war with Azerbaijan?

“Armenia will never start a war, although tensions on the front may increase. There have been skirmishes and men got killed. Skirmishes may become more frequent, but there is little likelihood of war, even on a small scale, in the next couple of months. But the overall atmosphere will be much tenser.