The center-right look set to make a comeback in Bulgaria

The political pendulum swung to the right again in Bulgaria, as shown by the results of the early general election just held in this country with a population of 7.5 million, which is considered one of the poorest and most corrupt in the EU.

The opposition center-right party Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) won most votes in the early election held in Bulgaria on October 5. After counting the votes, it has been revealed that 32.66 percent of voters supported the party of the former head of government Boyko Borisov. The Bulgarian Socialist Party, in power until this July, came second with 15.41 percent. The Turkish minority liberal party Movement for Rights and Freedoms got 14.83 percent. Four more parties cleared the electoral threshold of 4 percent, them being the Reform Bloc with 8.92 percent, the Patriotic Front with 7.30 percent, the Bulgaria without Censorship with 5.69 percent, and the Attack with 4.53 percent.

However, such an outcome was hardly a victory for the center-right party. Indeed, Borisov has said that given the election results, it will be difficult for him to form government. “I am ready to do everything possible to avoid the worst case scenario, which is a failure of the coalition talks. If we fail to form a new government for this nation, we will have to hold another election that will be a major defeat for Bulgaria,” the former prime minister stressed. He also called on other parties to come to the negotiating table and find a solution. It seems, however, that other parties that have entered the parliament are not inclined to look for compromises with him. In particular, according to Reuters, one of the leaders of the Reform bloc, seen as a possible ally in a GERB-led coalition, said that his party did not see Borisov as the next prime minister. A representative of the Socialist Party went further by calling the results “a great debacle.” Therefore, as noted by political analyst of the London School of Economics Dimitar Bechev, “it will be difficult to form a government with a fragmented parliament, and its stability will be an issue as well.”

Let us recall that the government created by the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the Turkish minority party Movement for Rights and Freedoms suffered a serious blow after the defeat of the Socialists in the European Parliament elections this May. Following it, the Cabinet resigned, and the Bulgarian Parliament was dissolved. It is well-known that two Bulgarian governments had to resign over the past 26 months as a result of mass protests. One of the reasons for the resignation of the socialist government was the bankruptcy of the country’s fourth largest bank, Corporate Commercial Bank AD.

By the way, the previous Cabinet led by Borisov, a former security guard, was forced to resign due to austerity measures. The fact that the socialist government was also forced to resign suggests that “socialist” (that is, populist) recipes have also failed to bring the country out of the crisis. Experts are already talking about default of Bulgaria.

The poorest country of the EU suffers from corruption and unemployment. The conflict in Ukraine had a negative impact on the situation as well. Bulgaria is almost totally dependent on Russian gas. The new government will have to decide the fate of the South Stream. Gazprom has expressed hope that the pipeline construction will resume shortly. Let us recall that due to pressure from the EU, Bulgaria officially suspended construction of the South Stream this June, the pipeline set to deliver gas to Europe bypassing Ukraine’s territory.

One can hardly expect, however, that Borisov will act to resume construction of the pipeline on taking the office of prime minister. It is especially unlikely after President of Bulgaria Rosen Plevneliev criticizing lately Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive leadership style, fit for a 19th century imperialist. “In President Putin’s world, it is still the 19th century when there were the great powers and then their smaller neighbors which had to submit,” said the president of Bulgaria. He suggested that Russia “learn to have partners, not vassals and subordinates.” Indeed, why would Borisov act in Putin’s interest as prime minister under such conditions?

He will need to deal with other things as well, including the eradication of crime, which is perhaps the most important issue in Bulgaria. Political analyst Evgeniy Daynov stressed in an interview with Deutsche Welle that corruption was one of the greatest threats to the nation. “The only solution to this problem is to rebuild those state institutions that are now hostages to personal interests,” he said. According to legal expert Tihomir Bezlov, amount of bribes received by public servants from Bulgarian citizens reached the highest level since 2000 last year. His colleague Todor Yalamov argues that the level of corruption in the public sector increased by half since 2009. Oligarchic structures that govern the country have completely undermined public confidence in government institutions, Yalamov maintains.

After the country’s accession to the EU in 2007, the crime rate began to decline gradually. Yalamov explains this by saying that both organized groups and many small-time criminals “partially shifted their activities to the West” then. The opposite trend has been in evidence over the past few years, though, due to the economic crisis and improving methods of fighting crime in the EU countries, Yalamov states. He alludes to the fact that reforms in law enforcement have stalled. “Bulgaria leads the EU in the number of police per capita, but police are almost invisible on the streets, even though the administrative apparatus is fantastically bloated,” the expert explained.

He said that the control mechanisms of the EU had pressured the Bulgarian government for some time into somehow trying to implement the reform of judiciary. However, after the accession of Bulgaria to the EU, these mechanisms have lost their previous importance. “Bulgarian politicians have realized that criticism from the EU does not lead to any critical consequences. In some cases, financing from EU funds was stopped, but nothing more was done,” Yalamov noted.

To determine the likely policies of the new government of Bulgaria based on the parties’ election manifestos is a really hard task. Political scientist Daniel Smilov believes these programs to be just “an attribute of the election” which is neither taken seriously by politicians nor read by voters. “Nationalist-populist parties especially like this, competing with each other, pushing for more and more fantastic proposals,” Smilov said, “like nationalizing energy suppliers and urgently creating two million new jobs.”

Favorite themes of the populists’ agitation are lowering energy prices, easing fiscal policy, and improving access to health services. They are almost unachievable, however, experts warn. Energy prices in Bulgaria are already the lowest in the EU. Reducing the single 10 percent income tax is not an option, because redistribution of the tax burden will strangle the economy. The health care industry, in its turn, is beset by corruption and lack of funds, harming a large number of low-income patients. Therefore, reforms and unpopular measures are the only way ahead, and this requires courage. As a former bodyguard, Borisov should have enough of it, so finding partners is now of utmost importance for him.