Chiasinau warning
The unrest is over, but Ukrainian politicians should still remember about it
If protest actions against the government lead to its downfall, it is a revolution, but if they fail, it is a rebellion. This is what the anticommunist revolution in Moldova ended up in. Now the government tends to refer to participants in the past few days’ events as rebels and looters. Actually, protests against the authorities very often take precisely this shape. No one will claim that the crowd that was storming the Bastille was guided exclusively by the love of freedom and the intention to free the languishing inmates among whom, incidentally, there were no political prisoners. What incited the mob were rumors about incalculable royal treasures in the main French prison’s basements. Having found no gold, they chose to dance on the remnants of autocracy.
According to Lenin, a revolution is possible if the upper classes can no longer defend the government and the lower classes do not want to further tolerate the latter. The leader of the world proletariat failed to spell out the sufficient conditions for a revolution to triumph. And, as the experience of our neighbors shows, no success is possible without this.
You may accuse President Vladimir Voronin and his party as much as you can of rigging the election and using the administrative resource. Undoubtedly, all this did take place — no CIS government can do without this. But there is no escaping the dry fact that rural Moldova (according the 2004 census, 61.4 percent of the population live in the countryside) opted for no other than the Communists. What caused them to do so may be open to debate, but “facts are stubborn things” and nobody has so far denied the truth of this phrase said by the second US President John Adams. Besides, the turnout was about 53 percent, with large cities showing sluggishness. This is why the opposition parties, which derive stronger support from city residents, failed to upstage the Communists in parliament. And they have nobody else to blame but themselves for the failure to properly carry out their election campaign.
At the same time, we cannot deny that the Communists have largely exhausted their resources and are unable to enlist sufficient support among young people and the most active part of the populace. As Moldova has long been in need of changes, many believe that the victory of Voronin’s party will only conserve the existing regime and, hence, the existing problems. Moldovan society is divided along not only geographical but also ethnic and religious lines. Unfortunately, the ruling Communists and their right-wing opponents focused on the ethnic question, in spite of its explosive nature. Instead of debating on how to beat the crisis and reform the country, they concentrated all attention on the Modovan — Romanian axis. It is difficult to devise a more destructive position and method of conducting an election campaign by all participants in the race. The hysteria whipped up by all the parties and independent candidates spilled out on the streets of Chi in u and other cities.
It is quite possible that the opposition parties caused people to take to the streets in order to demonstrate their strength and thus reinforce their bargaining power in the likely negotiations with the Communists. But the opposition showed very poor management: rightwing party leaders proved unprepared for a likely and easily-predictable provocation from the government. They were clearly at their wits’ end when disturbances began. Now some of them are wanted by the police, and Ukraine is being requested to extradite those who are allegedly hiding on our territory. It is easy to imagine that many followers of the opposition will think twice in the future whether to entrust right-wing party leaders with ruling the country if they failed to cope with a far simpler problem. We can put the blame on provocateurs and the government, but this will not improve things. Nobody has ever promised “hothouse conditions” in the struggle for power, and the former interior minister and the incumbent president Voronin is a dab hand in this matter, for he received good training in the Soviet era. Besides, instead of analyzing the situation, the opposition leaders resorted to such a customary thing as mutual accusations.
What is going on in Moldova has an international dimension. And we, the nearest neighbors, are not at all indifferent to how events will be unfolding. All the more so, there is a frozen conflict near our border, which may involve Ukrainian passport bearers. One should not blindly believe the version that the Communists are pushing around — that all the events is handiwork of the Romanian secret services. Revolutions are not the handiwork of foreign agents: the above-mentioned leader of the world proletariat once poured heavy scorn on this conspiracy mania. Foreign interference can make things easier for a revolution, but it can never replace the preparedness of a society for radical changes.
Lenin and his comrades-in-arms seized power with German support but there are ample grounds to believe that they could have done this without it. Before that, in 1905, no Japanese financial infusions could help, and the Bolsheviks still remained a small radical sect of Russian Social Democracy. It is quite possible that Romania rendered some help because Russia, too, was not indifferent. But the Communists polled the majority of votes not only thanks to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Moscow’s spin masters. The support of Voronin by Moscow touched off quite a bitter debate in Russia’s capital. Interestingly, IA Regnum published a very sharp article by its West section editor Sergei Kolerov under the eloquent headline “In Moldova the Russian Government Has Fallen Hostage to Its Own Illusions.” The author calls for discontinuing the support for Voronin and starting a dialogue with the Moldovan opposition. Given IA Regnum’s adherence to the official line, the publication of this article cannot be accidental. In the struggle with his opponents, Voronin is now playing the anti-Romanian card as much as possible, but this is a temporary thing. He may find it easy to make a U-turn.
The Moldova events ought to be a serious warning to those Ukrainian politicians who are ready to follow the 2004 example and gather crowds on city streets without any reason. This is acceptable when it is confined to speeches, concerts, and a large number of flags. But the borderline that separates us from repeating our neighbor’s unrest is rather thin. This country is 15 times larger in terms of the population, so it is very dangerous to play with public rallies that comprise a large number of people. There is enough explosive material and there are hosts of those who would like to cash in on this.
Secondly, Moldova’s pro-Russian as well as pro-Romanian course is not in Kyiv’s interests. Relations with Bucharest being lukewarm, a likely rapprochement of Moldova and Romania, with eventual reinforcement of the latter, by no means fits in with our interests. Moreover, any territorial transformations will inevitably produce an undesirable echo in our well-known separatist regions.
Thirdly, we should be clearly aware that the “Romanization” of Moldova will inevitably strengthen those circles in Bucharest and Chi in u that are already laying territorial claims to Ukraine. There are active and almost open preparations underway to revise our borders in Odesa and Chernivtsi oblasts. Moldovan and Romanian newspapers are actively broaching the mindless idea of giving Transnistria to Ukraine in exchange for northern and southern Bukovyna (to become Romanian territory) in order to restore “historical justice.” It is a talk of political mavericks for the time being, and it is better to turn down these “Greek gifts.”
Fourthly, the stepping up of Romanian efforts in Moldova is directly linked with Ukraine’s internal weakness and lack of a clear-cut policy in this very sensitive region. Some of our neighbors would like the repetition of what happened in 1918. Yet we must look for culprits in our own ranks, not abroad. Wishing to “drown” a political rival, our politicians forget that there can be no political vacuum. They have unbalanced the Ukrainian state, and there will always be those who will try to take advantage of this situation. Official Bucharest is not making territorial claims, but no one can guarantee that this will not happen in the future. We know only too well that there are more than enough revenge-seekers set on revising “unfair” borders. What can prevent this is a stable and strong Ukrainian state. This is what Ukrainian politicians ought to do (if they can) before taking people to the streets, obstructing parliament, and unbalancing the government.
Ukraine is interested in a stable Moldova which would pursue a pro-European, not pro-Romanian or pro-Russian, course. Europe is our common home and a place for stable and prosperous Ukraine and Moldova.
