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The choice has been made. Reforms should start now

Ukraine is entering a new stage of its historical development. Over the coming years, a new generation of young people will be the defining force in the national politics
28 October, 10:20
Photo by Ruslan KANIUKA, The Day

The election has ended, the polls have closed, and the vote counting has started. Cards are on the table, and the showdown is ongoing. This is despite the fact that everything or almost everything was clear even before the vote. The only intrigue left was the size of the gap between parties which were to clear the electoral threshold. Kyivites confidently asserted that the Communists would fail to enter the new Verkhovna Rada, and they proved to be right. The Communists themselves, who long played with superficial things, are now used as the magician’s cloth, which the latter employs to conceal the hare… or rabbit. The people’s attention may be distracted in this direction, as Lenin statues have fallen, and the Communists have not been allowed to re-enter the Rada. The Party of Regions has gone even further, having dissolved into new names and blocs. The president took particular care to emphasize this point, despite forgetting to explain the reasons for it. Why will the Communists be absent from the Rada? Is it due to the success of Petro Poroshenko’s team? Are we to thank the evolution of society’s consciousness for it? Or was it bought by surrendering eastern areas, disguised as truces and peace deals? Voters are happy. They feel like abandoning the Donbas is not the too high price for it, especially as we have allegedly won the war, rather than abandoned the Donbas. Such words are sometimes heard from the president too. We have achieved peace! This means that there will be no draft any time soon, and you can safely shout “Glory to Ukraine!” in cheerful halls at celebrations, and not in the trenches.

Yurii Lutsenko believes we have stopped Russian aggression. Such remarks in speeches, believe me, are hurting worse than anything else. It was Odesa and Kharkiv, Dnipro­petrovsk, Zaporizhia, civic and military volun­teers who stopped Russia, not “we.” Who are these “we”? Are they corrupt officials or ge­nerals lacking understanding of the realities of the war? One can understand use of diplomatic and careful wording, but there is no justification for outright bluffing. Lutsenko paints the truce as the necessary delay that purportedly allowed the army to get back on its feet. Successful raids by volunteer batta­lions, which were offset by incompetent command, are said to have stopped Russian troops. I saw General Valerii Heletei, with his nervous smile, running around a hall at the Mystetsky Arsenal. I strongly wanted to ask him a straightforward question, but it would be swearwords rather than journalism. There­fore, on accidentally bumping into journalist Pavel Sheremet, I asked him, as a man with deep knowledge of Russia, whether actual constructive dialog between the Kremlin and the Ukrainian government, which looks likely to be now totally controlled by Poroshenko, is even possible? Sheremet was skeptical. Hardly anything good could be expected from the Kremlin, he said, for Vla­di­mir Putin will continue to gnaw at Ukraine, even though he is now in a position where any decision will worsen it.

When I asked Lutsenko whether the new parliament, should the coalition agreement be signed, would be inclined to continue freezing the conflict in the Donbas via “truces” or turn to more decisive action, he responded that decisive action was needed, but it should be in line with the reconciliation course. This is, so to speak, eating one’s cake and having it too. Lutsenko said he was generally informed about what was going on in the Donbas at least as well as myself, because he had his son doing volunteer work there. How could I argue with such a decisive statement? Poroshenko’s associates’ responses are identical with those of their patron. Poroshenko took the office when the nation had no real army, they say. The truce provided the cohesion to our forces and allowed for a successful breakthrough. Scary stories about the fate of Luhansk residents will go nowhere, for they know everything and saw everything, because it turns out they have their own children serving in the warzone. I would disagree. The army was there before Poroshenko was sworn in, and it still is! It has had a fine fighting spirit as well. The liberation of the Donbas was undermined by presidential appointees. Residents of Luhansk and Donetsk want to feel like citizens of a country that is able to protect them wherever they are and whoever they are, for the state is, first of all, its citizenry. Otherwise, it is just a quasi-space, which can be destroyed at some point in time, sometimes a quite unexpected one.

Photo by Mykola TYMCHENKO, The Day

The president has made it clear that the formation of a coalition in parliament will be dominated by his block. Lutsenko even hastened to say that they would start signing an agreement with “the Euromaidan forces” immediately, but then retracted his statement while surrounded by journalists, saying off-record that “I do not know when it will happen.” Of course, the best cards, despite the insignificant difference in the votes won by the Poroshenko Block and the People’s Front, are in the hands of the president. Anyway, the coalition will come to exist. Poroshenko refuses to reveal who can be offered as an alternative to Prime Minister Arsenii Yatseniuk. Having gotten to Kyiv despite formidable obstacles, Yevgeny Kiselyov asked in vain Lu­tsen­ko and Poroshenko about a possible candidate for the post. They kept silent, but hinted that should the need arise, there were no irreplaceable people. This will depend on whe­ther Yatseniuk will be ready to endorse the “single reform plan.” Of course, no one will instigate such incidents. It is not profitable and not needed by anyone. After all, Poroshenko is now in full control of the country. Frankly, I would not see anything wrong with it amid such a crisis and during such a war. A vertical of power must be strong in such times. I am scared by other things, like the president continuing to talk about peace, which in reality does not exist, and still enjoying the victory over the Communists and the Party of Regions, who have not actually went away, for their remaining resentful electorate is still there. The president and his team repeat as a mantra the boring word “reform” mixing it with the word “Maidan.” It has been making me even sicker. Moreover, it causes creepy, disgusting, and painful feelings in me. It hurts, especially when you look Mustafa Dzhemilev in the eye, who looks doomed despite the fact that he is a winner of the election. “Me and Refat Chubarov have become personae non gratae in Crimea,” he said, and these words hit me like electric shock, because I cannot go back to my hometown as well.

Photo by Oleh NYCH

However, who needs our problems when there are pushpins and toys that our puppeteers have learned to play with so well? They have beaten the Communists and composed new designs, appropriated labels of volunteer batta­lions and issued calls for unity and reform, which no one has seen in 23 years of Ukraine’s independence. As you can see, the theme is still alive. With much effort, they have managed to get enough turnout and votes for their parties. The turnout was still fairly low, Lutsenko’s justifications notwithstanding. The people were very reluctant to go to the polls, and this fact is worth considering. People do not take seriously the cards they are being shown. They do not want to vote because they know it is all just a deception exercise. Apathy and frustration are harbingers of the storm. It is also worth consi­dering that the so-called “opposition” politicians have not gone anywhere, while MPs from single-member constituencies are politically faceless altogether, despite their seemingly concrete personifications. This game, the last game where our country is up for grabs, is being played now, and some players have been too excited by their victory. This casino has walls co­vered in mirrors and no windows, so it looks like someone has stopped to sense the time they live in, the time which is running out.

COMMENTARY

John HERBST, former US ambassador (2003-06) to Ukraine:

“If the exit polls accurately depict the voting in the parliamentary elections, including the constituency seats, the outcome is a stunning victory for reform and a pro-European orientation. It suggests that Ukrai­nian voters do not want a single, strong leader pushing reform. It is also a disaster for Mr. Putin and direct result of his aggressive polices that have removed from the Ukrai­nian electorate those voters most skeptical about a turn toward Europe.

“The top three parties in the race ran as European-directed reformers. In addition, Mr. Tiahnybok and Ms. Tymoshenko’s parties also made it into the Rada, together with the other reform parties making up roughly 2/3 of the votes in the election. Mr.Boiko’s Opposition Front made it into the Rada, but Mr. Tihipko’s party did not, nor did Mr. Symonenko’s Communist Party. This means that there will be little push back to policies aimed at synchronizing Ukrainian policies with Europe.

“The results are also disappointing for President Poroshenko, who had spoken for months about achieving a parliamentary majority and who as recently as last week was polling at 30 percent. Adrian Karatnycky and I just spent three days in Ukraine, meeting with officials, party leaders and journalists. Most people were talking about President Poroshenko establishing a coalition in which Mr. Hroisman would be Prime Minister. Such a strategy would only work if Mr. Poro­shen­ko’s party decisively outperformed Yatse­niuk’s party. But with the People’s Front fi­ni­shing just a few percentage points behind the President’s party, Mr. Yatseniuk has a strong hand to claim the Prime Ministry.

REUTERS photo

“From various sources we understood that Mr. Putin was aiming for two objectives in this election: 1) a significant minority in the Rada that would serve as a brake on policies moving Ukraine toward the EU and 2) a Prime Minister not associated with the events last winter on the Maidan. The exit polls indicate that he will achieve neither. The only party making it into the Rada that might oppose on balance European-minded polices is the Opposition Front. While Hroisman was not associated with the Maidan, Mr. Yatseniuk was.

“By making clear that a strong majority of Ukrainians favor reform and the turn to Europe, the election raises a new dilemma for Mr. Putin. Several times since February, when disappointed by internal developments in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s response was to take a new aggressive step. So, this latest setback gives him an occasion to seize Mariupol, where his troops are still massed, or to go well beyond that port and establish a land corridor to Crimea. Such a move would solve the problem of supplying Crimea with consumer goods – shortages have already appeared and will only get worse in the winter – as well as water and electricity, which come from mainland Ukraine.

“But Mr. Putin also has reasons for caution. The Russian army is tired and oil prices are down sharply, and with it his government’s income flow. More directly, he suffered a diplomatic defeat in Milan last week when Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande made clear that a real ceasefire would establish the Ukrainian government’s control over the areas in the Donbas taken by Russian-led, financed and armed forces, and enable Ukraine to control its border with Russia. Anything less would not be a real ceasefire that could lead to an easing of sanctions on Russia. Given the principled European stand in Milan, Mr. Putin knows that if he sends regular troops a second time into battle stiffer sanctions are likely to follow.

“We do not know whether Mr. Putin will stage some new provocation to demonstrate his unhappiness with the election results. We do know that, if his track record holds, the vote is tempting him to do so.”

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