Complexity of the Opposition Makes Dialogue Difficult
Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine Yevhen Marchuk announced on March 30 that the authorities and the opposition are now holding consultations on the possibility of negotiations. According to the NSDC secretary, “Even now it is becoming clear this is going to be difficult... The consultations, initiated by representatives of the leadership and some FNS (Forum of National Salvation — Ed.) activists to explore the possibility of negotiations, have shown that the latter might fail to materialize through the FNS-opposition’s fault.” Mr. Marchuk noted the preparatory stage is being complicated “by the FNS’s ultimatum- like preconditions, attempts to blackmail the leadership with new public campaigns, and offensive gibes at their opponents,” Interfax-Ukraine reports. The NSDC secretary pointed out that some FNS members have made a number of statements recently “from which it is clear that they are not interested in negotiations, for negotiations are less effective for election campaign hype than torchlight processions or street clashes with police.” Mr. Marchuk especially noted that “participation in the talks of the Forum of National Salvation-affiliated far Right youth groupings, which took part in mass actions, does not make it possible to even start the preparatory stage.”
The NSDC secretary opined that the Forum of National Salvation “cannot hold a monopoly on the whole opposition in Ukraine,” because more than ten million Ukrainian citizens voted for the “leader of the well-structured Left opposition” in the 1999 presidential elections. “It is for this reason that the authorities cannot ignore the Left opposition. Their leaders can also take part in the talks if they wish to,” he said. In Mr. Marchuk’s opinion, the Forum of National Salvation “is aware that the absence of a law on the opposition and parliamentary majority creates favorable conditions for utmost irresponsibility should they renege on the agreements achieved and the commitments taken... In addition, this kind of situation allows some FNS members to be in the opposition, in the parliamentary majority, and in governmental structures at the same time.”
Mr. Marchuk notes that the Forum of National Salvation “has many internal problems of its own, for it includes both Right and Left- wingers soon to be torn apart by the parliamentary elections... The FNS has oligarchs of its own, both overt and covert, with serious financial interests.” The NSDC secretary also pointed out the FNS “has also disclosed the existence of quite open foreign assistance that does not quite correspond to Ukrainian law.”
Answering the question if the situation concerning negotiations can be regarded hopeless, Mr. Marchuk said, “All difficulties can be overcome if both sides really wish to hold such talks. The authorities have displayed an initiative like this and are sure that negotiations is the only way to reach a compromise.” Commenting on the critical view that as a participant in the talks he is unacceptable to the opposition, Mr. Marchuk said, “This is again the question of preconditions, the FNS’s political heterogeneity, the problem who is leading the forum and the consistency of actions by its members... Not long ago, some national patriotic-minded members of the FNS condemned me for participating in the Kaniv Four group because it included Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz. Now the same people are in the same political entity together with Mr. Moroz and absolutely don’t care that he is speaking on their behalf. They forget that Mr. Moroz has a brilliant experience of bringing down political alliances at the crucial moment.”
Meanwhile, the largest segment of Ukrainian citizens looking on support a peaceful way of settling the political situation in Ukraine and think the president should begin negotiations with the opposition. This opinion was voiced by from 37% (in Odesa) to 45% (in Lviv) of the participants of a call-in conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) on March 14-16 in Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, and Kharkiv. A total 1600 people, 400 in each city, were polled. Fewer, about 20% on the average, support a strong-arm solution of the crisis, considering that the president should “put things in order,” by using “the police and security forces within the framework of the law.” From 23% in Kyiv to 35% in Lviv believe the president should resign.
Sociologists note an especially telling factor that even the overwhelming majority of those who favor the president’s resignation support exceptionally legal ways to settle the conflict. Answering the question “What kind of actions should be taken if the president refuses to resign?” put only to those who favor the president’s resignation, almost two thirds said that his removal should be accomplished only through parliamentary impeachment, with only one fifth opting for a continued mass campaign similar to those already held. About 6% of all those polled in the four cities favor the continuation of mass campaigns.
