Crimean Games Within Election Tourney

This is a an excerpt from one December 17 newspaper with a banal postcard clichО depicting a pair of doves kissing. This is not meant as an opener for discussing the damage of armchair punditry, meant to fool the public with pettifoggery. This quotation is intended to remind the reader that the peninsula which, thank God, has left the front pages of Ukrainian, Russian, and foreign periodicals, is still there, and that its developments should be known to the Ukrainian public.

The Christmas tale about the "rare political alliance" and "new generation politicians" (with Comrade Hrach racing up the provincial party ladder from propaganda instructor to first secretary of the Crimean Republic Party Committee, and Sergei Kunitsyn with brief experience as leader of Krasnoperekopsk and several months of being Crimean Premier under his belt, ended very quickly. Not because the term of office expired or in the Crimean constitutional process (as some analysts pointed out), but because of the nasty Brussels affair that made headlines the world over.

After a trip to the NATO headquarters when the Crimean Premier's comrades-in-arms shocked worldly-wise Europe by demonstratively trashing their hotel rooms - perhaps their way of showing gratitude for the hospitality accorded them - and being tagged by the local press as the peninsular piss-mongers, the Crimean leadership displayed a polarized view. Sergei Kunitsyn, who did not feel much love for the lair of Atlanticism, visited the briefing only, left the farewell dinner abruptly, overturning chairs in his way, because the receiving side refused to admit his slack-bladder associates as a sign of protest against their outrageous conduct. Some battle-hardened analysts suspect that the Crimean Parliament's passing its constitution bill was arranged by a secret understanding whereby Comrade Hrach and his fellow companions on the Brussels trip kept silent while Mr. Kunitsyn and his people voted for the Constitution, even though it was not entirely to their liking, realizing that it was the Speaker's custom-made product. In any case, Leonid Hrach did keep silent while Sergei Kunitsyn fought the media, finally threatening to take "adequate measures" in an operetta statement raising the problem of these golden showers of Communist on the Atlantic alliance to the level of political confrontation. At that point the Speaker had to respond and disagreed with the Premier's rash conclusions, arranging for an inquiry by the Foreign Ministry.
While Brussels was being watered with anthropogenic precipitation and the editorial corrections to the peninsula's draft constitution enhanced precisely the points which the executive disliked, the Crimean Premier and Ukrainian People's Deputy sallied forth, publicly accusing the Speaker of usurping power today to get even more power under the constitution.

This would all look merely banal and rather traditional for the Crimea's banana republic politics and its tin-pot political figures ranging from former President Mieshkov to the present-day characters. Except that Leonid Hrach represents a different cast in Ukraine's political show. Secondly, the now pacific peninsula (Comrade Hrach says it has come to its senses) has by no means ceased to be a geopolitical hotbed. It is smoldering and, given certain circumstances, could instantly erupt in flames.

"The Crimean problem is like a hand grenade with the pin out, and they have been fooling around with this grenade since 1991," Leonid Hrach declared at a news conference in Kyiv after the Verkhovna Rada once again shelved the Crimean constitutional project courtesy of Rukh, NDP, and the Greens. Of course, this statement could be updated, remembering exactly who started fooling around with this deadly weapon, what the Crimea did, which forces backed Mieshkov and the important role played by the Communists, but this would be a very long story. "After we made ourselves see reason," Comrade Hrach continued with what could be described as praiseworthy self-criticism, "and agreed to a maximum compromise, we were once again given our marching orders. But there is a limit to any compromise. We have reached ours."

Of course, giving the Crimea autonomy was a blunder resulting from Leonid Kravchuk's 1991 referendum. Another blunder was including in the Constitution of Ukraine the clause about the Crimean Constitution. Kyiv made both blunders. At the time such stupidity was referred to as the central government's tradeoff. What we are faced with now is a matter of consistency. Attempts to push the autonomous republic below the level of authority vested in any regional body can hardly be described as normal. The whole thing betrays the center's vengeful regret, a vague desire to reverse the irreversible.

It cannot, however, be ruled out that the Crimea's current haziness is most welcome in certain quarters now that the presidential campaign is picking up momentum. There could be certain political figures in the crimson peninsula joining the campaign, led by a victorious Comrade Hrach, who dream of reviving the autonomous republic's old Constitution which was thrown out by Kyiv. This would make a strong argument indeed. On the other hand, some strategists would find Kyiv's ignoring Crimean interests as an equally strong argument (for example, Parliament in Kyiv voting down the Crimean Constitution bill and Leonid Hrach rushing to the barricades). The Crimean Speaker must be aware of today's undercurrents, assuming that he was cautioned to complete the constitutional process before the presidential race reaches its peak and the Crimean card can be played again. Hence his periodic threats of taking the field in this campaign or staging a Crimean referendum.

We know from history, both ancient and modern, that wars make some suffer and others fortunes. It could be that those supposed to be scared by an explosive situation on the peninsula are eagerly anticipating it. Many are unnerved by Hrach's statements like, "If they don't let me work normally I will run in this race." If he did, the Crimean electorate that helped put Kuchma in office would make all Hrach's serious contenders step down in the first round. However, no one knows (Comrade Symonenko included) what would Leonid Hrach do in the second.

As for the complexity of the game to be played in the center, evidence is found in the Symonenko-Vitrenko alliance (albeit tentative so far), organized by Serhiy Dovhan. Today this composition looks like the headless horseman astride the Trojan horse, its bridle held by the Peasant Party leader acting on Speaker Tkachenko's behalf. It would be premature to predict what will come out of this Communist-Progressive Socialist-Peasant Party alliance, with all the objective and subjective factors being considered on the outside looking in.
Be it as it may, all these intricacies are not for the straightforward Crimea. Its job is inner resistance against Hrach and the Constitution on the part of the local executive in the person of Premier Kunitsyn, Presidential Representative Kyseliov, and several "ex-Crimeans" now and then visiting the peninsula to give directives. Vasyl Kyseliov, known for his rubber-like flexibility since Mieshkov's short-lived reign, cannot forgive Hrach his thrust about the inadmissibility of combining the People's Deputy status with a government post and the Speaker's interest in his collective farm affairs. Formally, he had handed his chairmanship of the Friendship of Peoples Collective Farm over to his wife, but actually, Hrach insists, he is still in charge, and that he "manages the collective farm in the morning and serves the President in the evening." The Crimean Prosecutor's Office received a document from Kyiv, testifying that the collective farm owes the budget Hr 1 million for fuel supplies, requesting appropriate measures to punish the guilty parties. In other words, one has hold on tight to one's law-making status at a time like this. "Kyseliov is a like a free Cossack," Leonid Hrach told journalists. "If I were President I might allow a man like him to represent me in Gogol's farmstead near Dykanka, but not in the Crimea." Mr. Horbulin, however, is rumored to have a different view.

The Crimean Premier also has problems with fuel. He owes Lukoil Hr 3 million guaranteed by the government, so he will probably have to look for unconventional (actually very conventional, all things considered) methods of settling accounts with this serious Russian business. But then something very curious happens. A tender for lubricant supplies to the Crimea (known to very few) is won by TER Holding, courtesy of Sergei Kunitsyn. Great! The Franchuk family, the republic's former masters, are getting back on stage. Now one has to wait and see whether these tycoons will try to win back the territory (taken away from them courtesy of Hrach) using their traditional techniques or maybe the whole thing will blow over. One thing is absolutely clear: if the extraordinary session of the Crimean Parliament, being organized by Sergei Kunitsyn, really does orchestrate Leonid Hrach's retirement, Ukrainian Deputy Anatoly Franchuk will have surely played first violin. Naturally, the former Crimean premier and real boss of the peninsula, cannot put up with the loss of his lucrative position just because Leonid Hrach kept his promise to "rid the Crimea of Franchuk" if they let him come to office there. In a sense, this is good. By surfacing again, Mr. Franchuk will allow the analysts to return to the Kuchma-Franchuk subject which is the last thing the President wants at the moment. As for the new round of intrigues (they say that Anatoly Franchuk is already handing out seats and portfolios to the credulous), nobody in the Crimea really cares. Lev Mirimsky's Union Party is now aligned with Sergei Kunitsyn (Mr. Mirimsky's heroic role in the epic of electing Hrach and retiring Franchuk has gone down in the republic's history). There is a sports notion, the challenge cup. Soviet ideologues adapted it to their needs and came up with a "challenge prize" or "challenge banner" awarded to the collective farm supplying the most milk, meat, or whatever to the state, or the mine producing the most coal. This prize is still valid, except that it is awarded to he that can make the biggest promises. Arkady Demydenko, Ukraine's Deputy Ministers of Transport, another former Crimean Premier, flew from Kyiv to help Kunitsyn heap more dirt on Hrach on behalf of the Crimea, Our Home Association. Considering all this, trying to refute Comrade Hrach's allegations that Kyiv's Cabinet and NDP are behind all this starts to get difficult.

By and large, what will happen to the Crimea is one thing. Another thing is that Leonid Hrach as a politician stood to lose nothing, whatever happens. With the Constitution enacted, he gets the laurels, and Kunitsyn can only be sympathized with. Had this not happened, even if he lost or resigned his post, he would have been welcomed by the opposition, and the barricades would have got a new ardent leader.