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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

Crimean Games Within Election Tourney

29 December, 1998 - 00:00

"The Crimean leadership has emerged as a rare political alliance, even
for our underdeveloped democracy. The Crimea's Communist Speaker Leonid
Hrach and Prime Minister Sergei Kunitsyn of the NDP, Ukraine's so-called
party of power, are both representatives of a new generation politicians
capable of steering a middle course even in a hopeless situation. They
have demonstrated this ability in practice after heading, respectively,
the autonomous republic's legislative and executive branches."

This is a an excerpt from one December 17 newspaper with a banal postcard
clichО depicting a pair of doves kissing. This is not meant as an opener
for discussing the damage of armchair punditry, meant to fool the public
with pettifoggery. This quotation is intended to remind the reader that
the peninsula which, thank God, has left the front pages of Ukrainian,
Russian, and foreign periodicals, is still there, and that its developments
should be known to the Ukrainian public.

The Christmas tale about the "rare political alliance" and "new generation
politicians" (with Comrade Hrach racing up the provincial party ladder
from propaganda instructor to first secretary of the Crimean Republic Party
Committee, and Sergei Kunitsyn with brief experience as leader of Krasnoperekopsk
and several months of being Crimean Premier under his belt, ended very
quickly. Not because the term of office expired or in the Crimean constitutional
process (as some analysts pointed out), but because of the nasty Brussels
affair that made headlines the world over.

After a trip to the NATO headquarters when the Crimean Premier's comrades-in-arms
shocked worldly-wise Europe by demonstratively trashing their hotel rooms
- perhaps their way of showing gratitude for the hospitality accorded them
- and being tagged by the local press as the peninsular piss-mongers, the
Crimean leadership displayed a polarized view. Sergei Kunitsyn, who did
not feel much love for the lair of Atlanticism, visited the briefing only,
left the farewell dinner abruptly, overturning chairs in his way, because
the receiving side refused to admit his slack-bladder associates as a sign
of protest against their outrageous conduct. Some battle-hardened analysts
suspect that the Crimean Parliament's passing its constitution bill was
arranged by a secret understanding whereby Comrade Hrach and his fellow
companions on the Brussels trip kept silent while Mr. Kunitsyn and his
people voted for the Constitution, even though it was not entirely to their
liking, realizing that it was the Speaker's custom-made product. In any
case, Leonid Hrach did keep silent while Sergei Kunitsyn fought the media,
finally threatening to take "adequate measures" in an operetta statement
raising the problem of these golden showers of Communist on the Atlantic
alliance to the level of political confrontation. At that point the Speaker
had to respond and disagreed with the Premier's rash conclusions, arranging
for an inquiry by the Foreign Ministry.

While Brussels was being watered with anthropogenic precipitation and
the editorial corrections to the peninsula's draft constitution enhanced
precisely the points which the executive disliked, the Crimean Premier
and Ukrainian People's Deputy sallied forth, publicly accusing the Speaker
of usurping power today to get even more power under the constitution.

This would all look merely banal and rather traditional for the Crimea's
banana republic politics and its tin-pot political figures ranging from
former President Mieshkov to the present-day characters. Except that Leonid
Hrach represents a different cast in Ukraine's political show. Secondly,
the now pacific peninsula (Comrade Hrach says it has come to its senses)
has by no means ceased to be a geopolitical hotbed. It is smoldering and,
given certain circumstances, could instantly erupt in flames.

"The Crimean problem is like a hand grenade with the pin out, and they
have been fooling around with this grenade since 1991," Leonid Hrach declared
at a news conference in Kyiv after the Verkhovna Rada once again shelved
the Crimean constitutional project courtesy of Rukh, NDP, and the Greens.
Of course, this statement could be updated, remembering exactly who started
fooling around with this deadly weapon, what the Crimea did, which forces
backed Mieshkov and the important role played by the Communists, but this
would be a very long story. "After we made ourselves see reason," Comrade
Hrach continued with what could be described as praiseworthy self-criticism,
"and agreed to a maximum compromise, we were once again given our marching
orders. But there is a limit to any compromise. We have reached ours."

Of course, giving the Crimea autonomy was a blunder resulting from Leonid
Kravchuk's 1991 referendum. Another blunder was including in the Constitution
of Ukraine the clause about the Crimean Constitution. Kyiv made both blunders.
At the time such stupidity was referred to as the central government's
tradeoff. What we are faced with now is a matter of consistency. Attempts
to push the autonomous republic below the level of authority vested in
any regional body can hardly be described as normal. The whole thing betrays
the center's vengeful regret, a vague desire to reverse the irreversible.

It cannot, however, be ruled out that the Crimea's current haziness
is most welcome in certain quarters now that the presidential campaign
is picking up momentum. There could be certain political figures in the
crimson peninsula joining the campaign, led by a victorious Comrade Hrach,
who dream of reviving the autonomous republic's old Constitution which
was thrown out by Kyiv. This would make a strong argument indeed. On the
other hand, some strategists would find Kyiv's ignoring Crimean interests
as an equally strong argument (for example, Parliament in Kyiv voting down
the Crimean Constitution bill and Leonid Hrach rushing to the barricades).
The Crimean Speaker must be aware of today's undercurrents, assuming that
he was cautioned to complete the constitutional process before the presidential
race reaches its peak and the Crimean card can be played again. Hence his
periodic threats of taking the field in this campaign or staging a Crimean
referendum.

We know from history, both ancient and modern, that wars make some suffer
and others fortunes. It could be that those supposed to be scared by an
explosive situation on the peninsula are eagerly anticipating it. Many
are unnerved by Hrach's statements like, "If they don't let me work normally
I will run in this race." If he did, the Crimean electorate that helped
put Kuchma in office would make all Hrach's serious contenders step down
in the first round. However, no one knows (Comrade Symonenko included)
what would Leonid Hrach do in the second.

As for the complexity of the game to be played in the center, evidence
is found in the Symonenko-Vitrenko alliance (albeit tentative so far),
organized by Serhiy Dovhan. Today this composition looks like the headless
horseman astride the Trojan horse, its bridle held by the Peasant Party
leader acting on Speaker Tkachenko's behalf. It would be premature to predict
what will come out of this Communist-Progressive Socialist-Peasant Party
alliance, with all the objective and subjective factors being considered
on the outside looking in.

Be it as it may, all these intricacies are not for the straightforward
Crimea. Its job is inner resistance against Hrach and the Constitution
on the part of the local executive in the person of Premier Kunitsyn, Presidential
Representative Kyseliov, and several "ex-Crimeans" now and then visiting
the peninsula to give directives. Vasyl Kyseliov, known for his rubber-like
flexibility since Mieshkov's short-lived reign, cannot forgive Hrach his
thrust about the inadmissibility of combining the People's Deputy status
with a government post and the Speaker's interest in his collective farm
affairs. Formally, he had handed his chairmanship of the Friendship of
Peoples Collective Farm over to his wife, but actually, Hrach insists,
he is still in charge, and that he "manages the collective farm in the
morning and serves the President in the evening." The Crimean Prosecutor's
Office received a document from Kyiv, testifying that the collective farm
owes the budget Hr 1 million for fuel supplies, requesting appropriate
measures to punish the guilty parties. In other words, one has hold on
tight to one's law-making status at a time like this. "Kyseliov is a like
a free Cossack," Leonid Hrach told journalists. "If I were President I
might allow a man like him to represent me in Gogol's farmstead near Dykanka,
but not in the Crimea." Mr. Horbulin, however, is rumored to have a different
view.

The Crimean Premier also has problems with fuel. He owes Lukoil Hr 3
million guaranteed by the government, so he will probably have to look
for unconventional (actually very conventional, all things considered)
methods of settling accounts with this serious Russian business. But then
something very curious happens. A tender for lubricant supplies to the
Crimea (known to very few) is won by TER Holding, courtesy of Sergei Kunitsyn.
Great! The Franchuk family, the republic's former masters, are getting
back on stage. Now one has to wait and see whether these tycoons will try
to win back the territory (taken away from them courtesy of Hrach) using
their traditional techniques or maybe the whole thing will blow over. One
thing is absolutely clear: if the extraordinary session of the Crimean
Parliament, being organized by Sergei Kunitsyn, really does orchestrate
Leonid Hrach's retirement, Ukrainian Deputy Anatoly Franchuk will have
surely played first violin. Naturally, the former Crimean premier and real
boss of the peninsula, cannot put up with the loss of his lucrative position
just because Leonid Hrach kept his promise to "rid the Crimea of Franchuk"
if they let him come to office there. In a sense, this is good. By surfacing
again, Mr. Franchuk will allow the analysts to return to the Kuchma-Franchuk
subject which is the last thing the President wants at the moment. As for
the new round of intrigues (they say that Anatoly Franchuk is already handing
out seats and portfolios to the credulous), nobody in the Crimea really
cares. Lev Mirimsky's Union Party is now aligned with Sergei Kunitsyn (Mr.
Mirimsky's heroic role in the epic of electing Hrach and retiring Franchuk
has gone down in the republic's history). There is a sports notion, the
challenge cup. Soviet ideologues adapted it to their needs and came up
with a "challenge prize" or "challenge banner" awarded to the collective
farm supplying the most milk, meat, or whatever to the state, or the mine
producing the most coal. This prize is still valid, except that it is awarded
to he that can make the biggest promises. Arkady Demydenko, Ukraine's Deputy
Ministers of Transport, another former Crimean Premier, flew from Kyiv
to help Kunitsyn heap more dirt on Hrach on behalf of the Crimea, Our Home
Association. Considering all this, trying to refute Comrade Hrach's allegations
that Kyiv's Cabinet and NDP are behind all this starts to get difficult.

By and large, what will happen to the Crimea is one thing. Another thing
is that Leonid Hrach as a politician stood to lose nothing, whatever happens.
With the Constitution enacted, he gets the laurels, and Kunitsyn can only
be sympathized with. Had this not happened, even if he lost or resigned
his post, he would have been welcomed by the opposition, and the barricades
would have got a new ardent leader.

 

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