Dietmar STUEDEMANN: “The Europeans underestimated Moscow’s blunt blackmail approach to use Kyiv’s desperate situation”
Recent events, in particular Ukraine’s refusal to sign the Association Agreement and it signing bilateral agreements with Russia instead, have undermined the Eastern Partnership’s effectiveness. Experts have begun to talk about the failure of this initiative which aimed to promote European convergence of six countries covered by the partnership. Instead of it, Armenia and Ukraine refused to sign their already prepared Association Agreements. The Day asked former German Ambassador to Ukraine Dietmar STUEDEMANN to comment on the situation.
“I do not share your view that the project of the Eastern Partnership failed though it is in troubled waters. President Yanukovych failed to live up to the agreements, finalized a year ago. Internally every word was put before the Presidential Administration and approved. To blame now the negotiators of having acted against Ukraine’s interest is out of any logic.
“Political, financial, and social mismanagement led Ukraine into that trap, which offered Moscow the chance to drag the country into the Russian orbit. I would not exclude that President Putin has won a Pyrrhic victory. The Orange Revolution already caused a big trauma within the Kremlin. The massive, well organized protest these days differs greatly from the 2004 protest. For the first time a new generation supported by the disappointed revolutionaries of 2004 not only directs its protest against a political class, but also has a specific goal, integration into the European Union. This outburst of a Ukrainian consolidated civil society must be still more dangerous for the Russian leadership. The Kremlin counts basically only on President Yanukovych, whose power basis seems to erode.
“Europe never argued with its projects against Russia. Our policy never meant to be ‘either EU or Russia.’ We always made it clear, that Ukraine had to balance its relations with Russia. There was substantial support from the EU, Washington, and most of all from the IMF. Mr. Azarov declared on various occasions that Ukraine could and would do without the IMF. A big mistake! To get a standby agreement up to 15 billion dollars at a rate of 3 percent with conditions oriented at the desperately needed and unavoidable structural reforms would have been far more favorable, than what President Yanukovych in the end has to pay to Russia.
“The Tymoshenko case was never the main stumbling block. The up and downs of the Cox-Kwasniewski mission revealed that very clearly.
“The Europeans underestimated Moscow’s blunt blackmail approach to use Kyiv’s desperate situation. The way President Putin acted contradicts European standards. This opinion unites all Europeans. But Moscow’s policy might hit back in the end, because it does great damage to Russian-European relations.
“However, to blame is the Ukrainian leadership, which led the country into this disastrous situation. The way out will be difficult. The minimum is a new government that is able and prepared to reset relations with Brussels, European capitals, and Washington by starting substantial talks, how to proceed further.”
