A Diplomatic Revolution
The EU has begun serious discussions about market-economy status, a free trade zone, and a simplified visa regime with Ukraine.
“The Orange Revolution has placed Ukraine on the political map. In the medium-term perspective, i.e., within 3-4 years, Kyiv may get a clear schedule of negotiations on European Union membership,” an unnamed European diplomat told The Day.
Recent statements by EU representatives of various ranks indicate that Brussels is energetically discussing the quality of future relations with Ukraine. There are at least two opinions about the format of cooperation with Kyiv. The first is that Kyiv should be given essential support for implementing its European choice, even including the announcement of a concrete date for the beginning of EU membership talks. The reasoning is that the Orange Revolution has confirmed the democratic nature of Ukrainian developments and, hence, the aspiration of our citizens to embrace common European values. Until recently, the snail’s pace of democratic processes in Ukraine was the main obstacle to Kyiv’s European integration. Representatives of the EU’s “pro-Ukrainian” circles also note that while Brussels is conducting negotiations about admitting Turkey, it should not deny Ukraine this opportunity. The opponents of Ukraine’s membership are still searching for a proper rationale, which until now has boiled down to declarations that democratic processes are being hindered in Ukraine. However, those who oppose giving Kyiv clear signals claim that the EU will be unable to sustain a sizable, new enlargement. Representatives of this group likewise criticize the admission of Turkey. They fear Ankara because of its alleged “non-Europeanness” (namely, the Muslim religion). As for Ukraine, it can inflict economic losses on EU businesses (primarily in the agricultural sector). Which of these views will win out? European diplomats point out that Ukraine should in any case prove its European choice in deed, not only in word. The rapid pace of reforms is what will allow Ukraine to obtain concrete deadlines and the launch of EU membership negotiations.
Can Ukraine afford to wait three to four years for some clear signals? The Day’s anonymous interviewee stresses this is unlikely to happen before the EU countries ratify the new European Constitution. This being a serious factor, one should not forget that in the current situation, time may be playing against Kyiv. Implementing reforms and achieving positive changes inside the country is primarily the goal of Ukraine, not of other states. Quite clearly, the new government will try to implement the changes that will fully meet the Copenhagen Criteria, which is indispensable for EU membership. It may well happen, though, that in time Brussels will forget its current calls “to work and work, and only then talk about being admitted,” which rang out during the wave of general rapture over the events in Kyiv, and instead will say that admission is just not on the agenda. Ukraine is unlikely to be able to hold orange revolutions every year in order to prove its adherence to European values.
Among the positive signals that have been emerging lately have been the European Parliament’s discussions of the “Ukrainian question”, which was the subject of a resolution passed by a vast majority vote, urging the European Commission to formulate the basis of a new type of relationship with Ukraine. European parliamentarians (especially the Poles who, more often than others, draft pro-Kyiv resolutions) are calling on EU commissioners to spell out clear-cut prospects for Ukraine’s integration. They suggest, in particular, launching a dialogue on simplifying the visa regime and recognizing Ukraine as a market-economy state.
The Day has been informed that these proposals are being considered quite seriously by the European Commission. It has not been ruled out that they will be discussed in the nearest future with the newly-formed Ukrainian government. The harshest critic of the EU’s policy toward Ukraine is Vice-Speaker of the European Parliament Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, Poland’s former longtime minister for European integration (The Day recently published an interview with him). According to Radio Liberty, when he was addressing parliament on behalf of the largest faction — the European People’s Party — he said, “We must offer Ukraine at last the prospect of membership. This will encourage Ukraine to continue and intensify the course of reforms.
This is in our best interests and the interests of democracy in Eastern Europe as a whole.” The European People’s Party has invited Viktor Yushchenko to visit the European Parliament “as soon as possible.” The European Liberal Democrats also support Ukraine’s admission to the EU. A member of this faction compared the Orange Revolution to the fall of the Berlin Wall, while MEP Elmar Brok, who chairs the EP’s foreign affairs committee, called the current programs of EU-Ukraine cooperation “modest crumbs.”
The impression is that debating Ukraine’s European prospects is one of the “most prestigious” issues in Brussels. Politicians and diplomats are competing to “grab” the right to be called Ukraine’s best friend. It is quite likely that Kyiv and the EU will soon begin a sort of “honeymoon” in their relationship, exchanging visits of varying levels and results. Today, very few question the necessity of modifying the Ukraine-EU Action Plan that was drawn up with the outgoing Ukrainian government. Brussels bureaucrats maintain that this document contains proposals that differ essentially from those made, for example, to North African countries. European diplomats also stress that Ukraine occupies a pivotal place in the European Union’s neighborhood policy. It is quite possible, however, that the current version of the Action Plan may delay Kyiv’s integration into Europe because even though this is a joint document, it includes too many pledges from Ukraine and too few from Brussels. Naturally, what is crucial is not the paper on which this document is written but the way the plan is being implemented. Moreover, Brussels is utterly determined to build a new relationship with Kyiv. This involves a long list of issues: signing the agreement on a free trade zone, granting Ukraine market-economy status, negotiating a simplified visa regime, making European Investment Bank loans available for Ukrainian projects, etc. But we shouldn’t forget that the bureaucrats in Brussels tend to be pedantic, remembering only too well other people’s declarations but not always their own ones. So Kyiv should insist right now on clear and well-documented messages.
Ukraine’s advantage is that a considerable number of EU countries, especially the newest members, are siding with Kyiv. For instance, the foreign ministers of Poland, Austria, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovenia met in Warsaw last week to discuss further cooperation with our country. Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Adam Rotfeld, emphasized that the Ukraine-EU Action Plan adopted last December did not take into account changes in the situation. “Without a doubt, this is the minimum that Ukraine can do. We are going to make the EU offer Ukraine something more attractive,” Mr. Rotfeld said, adding that there can be no question of admitting Ukraine to the EU now. However, his opinion may well change, if only because of the influence exerted by Poland’s President Aleksander Kwasniewski, who enjoys considerable authority in Europe, including the EU, and favors giving Ukraine clearer membership prospects. In his latest interview with the Polish weekly Tygodnik Powszechny he emphasized that the European Union should fix a date for the beginning of negotiations on Ukraine’s EU membership. The EU’s action plan for Ukraine “must be bolder and include a date for launching talks with the Ukrainians on the subject of likely membership,” said the president.
The first EU official to visit Ukraine this year will be Benita Ferrero-Waldner, European Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighbourhood Policy (this former Austrian foreign minister was quite well disposed toward Ukraine when she visited Kyiv in this capacity). She plans to visit Ukraine at least two times in the nearest future: to attend the inauguration ceremony and to make a routine visit. Last Friday Ms. Ferrero-Waldner sent greetings to the president-elect of Ukraine. In her optimistic-sounding letter she writes, “The events that recently occurred in Ukraine have confirmed its place on the map of Europe. We have no doubts that these events will become a cornerstone in the history of not only Ukraine but also of relations between the EU and your country. The European Union and Ukraine have a common interest in further strengthening our political, economic, and cultural ties.”
There may be even more optimistic hopes. Everything is pointing to the fact that the new leadership can win a sizable credit of trust not only from inside the country, but abroad. Whether it will be able to use this credit for Ukraine’s benefit will become clear very soon, when the new president makes his first ministerial appointments.
The new leadership obtained this credit above all from Ukrainian citizens, to whom it is ultimately responsible.
INCIDENTALLY
Ukraine welcomes the European Parliament’s January 13 resolution on the Ukrainian elections, said Kostiantyn Hryshchenko, Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs. Quoting Mr. Hryshchenko, the foreign ministry’s deputy spokesman Dmytro Svystkov said, “The call by members of the European Parliament to intensify relations with Ukraine, including revising the Ukraine-EU Action Plan, which will take into account the new political situation in this country following the presidential elections, as well as resolving such urgent problems as granting this country market-economy status, simplifying the visa regime, and supporting Ukraine’s entry into the World Trade Organization, fully meets the interests and aspirations of Ukrainian society.” The acting minister put special emphasis on the European parliamentarians’ call to the European Commission and the EU Council to propose other forms of integration with Ukraine outside the framework of the European Neighborhood Policy, which would entail clear prospects for Ukraine eventually obtaining EU membership. On its part, Ukraine is determined “actively and persistently to follow the elected course toward European integration and to implement its strategic political choice by taking practical steps,” Mr. Hryshchenko said.
