An elaborate staffing policy

Ukrainian politicians have at last chosen the color of the coalition, but they are in for a more serious test — portfolio distribution. They must approve the prime ministerial candidate, elect the Verkhovna Rada speaker, vice-speakers, parliamentary committee heads, and form the Cabinet of Ministers. According to BYuT leader Yulia Tymoshenko, the first act of this staffing epic will take place as early as Tuesday or Wednesday.

The president’s chief of staff Oleh Rybachuk is not so optimistic. “In real terms, I can speak about the prospect of ten days. This is what the president heard today and what he expects from the current participants in the coalition,” Rybachuk said at a briefing last Friday. He noted that next week parliament will elect its chairman (speaker), committees, and then it will take “another week to form the government.”

It was crystal clear from the very beginning of the coalition talks who would become prime minister. The presidential chief of staff believes that the head of state will formally propose Yulia Tymoshenko as prime minister as early as Monday.

The situation with the parliamentary speaker is more difficult. In keeping with a signed agreement, this office is the preserve of Our Ukraine. So far, according to OU faction leader Roman Bezsmertny, the bloc has two candidates: Petro Poroshenko and Anatoliy Kinakh. It is expected that the choice will be finalized by Monday.

What will tip the scales in the OU’s decision — a desire to establish parliamentary checks and balances to the premier or the intention to have a conflict-free environment in the VR? On the one hand, experts claim that the speaker is far less important in the current political conditions than in the recent past. But on the other hand, Poroshenko is a strong irritant for the various factions in the coalition. Should this “unpleasantness” occur, the members of the future pro-Tymoshenko faction will keep an eye on Poroshenko to forestall the likely flare-up of personal antagonism.

“Poroshenko will be in our range of vision for seven or eight hours a day. We will be seeing him all the time,” said BYuT member Volodymyr Yavorivsky last Thursday in an NTN channel program. Our Ukraine denies that Poroshenko is being appointed as a check and balance. For instance, Bezsmertny said last Thursday in an interview with the 1+1 TV channel, “The idea that somebody will be a thorn in one’s side is a thing of the past. In reality, they will be keeping watch over one another.” He also noted that “Mr. Poroshenko and Ms. Tymoshenko can find a common language far sooner than, say, Ms. Tymoshenko and Mr. Bezsmertny.”

Compared to Poroshenko, Kinakh seems to be more of a compromise figure. But in the view of political scientist Borys Petrovsky, Kinakh as speaker will symbolize a compromise not so much with the partners as with the Party of Regions. “The current National Security and Defense Council secretary is ‘the coalition’s Trojan horse’,” the expert pointed out.

It was Kinakh’s idea to establish an inter-faction association, which the “regionals” readily accepted. He is also one of those who spoke out in favor of a coalition with the Party of Regions. Petrovsky claims that Kinakh may play the role of intermediary between the Orange coalition and the Party of Regions. This mediation will be very useful if 300 votes have to be collected to introduce changes to the constitution.

Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko thinks it will take the speaker, no matter who it is, some time to adapt. “I think it will be just a question of different styles of work,” Fesenko told The Day.

But proposing a speaker is one thing, but getting all the coalition partners to support him is another. Thus, according to Bezsmertny, a mechanism is being worked out, which will provide a 100-percent guarantee that a decision will be made: it is a “package vote.”

“I am neither a dreamer nor a pessimist. I just look at things soberly. Past lessons show that if you want to draw a thin line, you have to sharpen your pencil.” Bezsmertny also forecasts that voting on this matter will take place on Tuesday. But when the question concerns the Orange coalition, it is a thankless job to make forecasts.