Empty threats

The agreement with the US on the anti-missile defense system and problems with its ratification in the US Congress have strained relations between Washington and Moscow. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in his statements to the western press, and then President Dmitry Medvedev in his message to the Federal Assembly, spoke about the new arms race. In his interview with the famous CNN host Larry King, Putin stated: “It’s not our choice. We do not want it. But this doesn’t depend on us. We simply say that this will happen if we disagree with general efforts in this sphere.”

Medvedev also threatened that “we will have to make decisions on placing new offensive means.” He didn’t specify which exactly, but experts know that, as a rule, this refers to the Iskander missiles, which the Russian authorities from time to time promise to place in the Kaliningrad oblast, in response to the American anti-missile defense system in Poland.

In addition, in his article in the German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung Putin also threatened Europe with energy supply problems if the Energy Charter come into force (already formally in place), and if it doesn’t take into account Russia’s interests. In other words, if Europe really wants energy independence, it will initiate confrontation with Russia, for which it will be to blame.

The timing of such an abrupt shift, from a balanced dialog to open threats, is connected with a number of events both inside and outside Russia.

The internal tension is growing in Russia. The 12 murders [of the Akhmetov family and friends –  Ed.] in the village of Kushchevskaya, and the behavior of local and central authorities, have bolstered discontent in other regions. The self-organization of the dissatisfied and advancing political requests is especially frightening for the government, and a typical of Russia. So far it only concerns the resignation of local corrupt authorities. Yet it shocked authorities and thus created an urgent need for another topic to appear. So the government turned to foreign politics. Fortunately for Russian propagandists from the government, overseas interim elections have passed, where mostly opponents of concessions to Moscow won. Thus the long-cherished reset between Russia and US became endangered. One cannot say that Moscow is very much concerned with this, quite the contrary. The lightning conductor, which was recently lost as a result of another attempt in the lessening of tension, appeared again. But in public they pretend to be extremely puzzled.

This situation gives a possibility to start the old legend about underhand plotting of enemies and hostile environment again, and make the unfriendly West guilty of everything. Hence, the threats of a new arms race and redeployment of missiles closer to NATO’s borders is more ostentatious, The Wall Street Journal writes. Naturally, Mikhail Margelov, the head of the committee for international relations of the Council of Federation of Russia, denied it right away.

Maybe some naive people in Russia will believe the tales about the new arms race, but one can hardly fool Washington or European capitals so easily. What arms race can Moscow talk about, if even the technically outdated complexes C-400 were produced only for two battalions, and they stopped there. How can they compete with the US? Missiles? Do they mean the projects of the late 1980s, Bulava, which became outdated long ago? In aviation? With avionics of French and Israeli make? Otherwise these aircrafts’ fighting characteristics are worth nothing. In tanks? But the most up-to-date Russian tanks are at least a generation or even two generations behind the machines of any probable opponent. The same goes for everything else. And one more crucial question: where shall one get money for such an arms race? In this case a mere decision of the politbureau is not enough. Since, as international financial structures predict, there will be no money in the Stabilization Fund and other funds next year. Though there will be problems with the budget, the Finance Minister Kudrin already warned about it and demanded increasing taxes. Just like in Ukraine. One should pay attention to this synchronization as well. Such coincidences are rarely occasional. 

So, there are no reasons to suppose Russia will really start a new arms race. Though there will be many talks about it. Some costs for “cleaning out” by the vertically integrated state corporations will be allotted, parades will be held, etc.

At the same time, there is some sense in the voiced threats. However, it is not in the obstacle race, which they will not be able to overcome, but in something else. Russia is quite able to complicate life to the West in secondary but rather important directions, especially in Central Asia, the Near East, and in relations with Iran, although the possibilities for maneuvers of Russian diplomacy are very limited on the latter. The controversies on the issues of delimitation in the Caspian Sea and confrontations in the South Caucasus are too significant. In addition, Moscow cannot ignore opinions of the Arab countries adjacent to Iran. However, Moscow can cause some problems for Washington and Tel Aviv, as well as problems on the Korean peninsula. (Though China will hardly welcome Russian activeness there.) There is also a friend, Hugo Chavez: one could send some amount of weapons for oil dollars. But all this is simply for show.

Most likely, the demonstration of cruelty, going up to threats, is a factor of internal struggle for the future all-Russian throne. Let us pay attention once again to the synchronized statements of premier and president on one topic. If someone thinks it’s a demonstration of unity, he or she is mistaken. In fact, it is a year-and-a-half-long race and an attempt to pull ahead so far that the rival will not be able to catch you. Care for security is demonstrated to people, external danger is pointed out, and the choice of who takes care of it best.

The fact that both “twin peaks” now spoke on one topic is incidental. Very soon they will act on chosen fields again. And one shouldn’t expect confrontations between them. Their intensity will be determined by the current moment and social-economic situation. However, the recent speech of Parfyonov and others show that the parties are getting ready for serious clashes, in the information sphere as well.

The aggravation of relations between Moscow and Washington will be inevitably reflected on the CIS territory. In view of many reasons, Kyiv will feel it first of all. That is when the consequences of the Kharkiv Agreements will appear. And not only. So, one should get ready for more complicated times in our bilateral relations, which are not perfect even now. The question is whether Ukrainian leaders are aware of it. It looks that the Tax Code and connected with it intrigues of groups of influence in the Party of Regions covered everything.