EU Expansion: Good or Bad?
The European Commission has made public its conclusions that the simultaneous admission of ten new members, planned for 2004, would be the best option for the European Union. Accordingly, very little time is left for us to prepare, in psychological terms as well, for having not only Poland, Hungary and Slovakia but, above all, the European Union as our neighbors with all that this implies. As the conference, EU Expansion: Influence on Ukraine, held by the Razumkov Ukrainian Center for Economic and Political Research (UCEPR) and the Adenauer Foundation, showed, experts and society assess this phenomenon in very diverse ways. Expert research showed above all that neither the state nor society are so far prepared to accept this. Government bodies have not carried out any full-scale study of all the likely consequences of EU expansion, especially on the micro level (particularly, in border regions). Individuals are sure to suffer from the necessity to obtain visas for visiting the neighboring, hitherto open countries, which is likely to seriously affect small business and accordingly increase social tension.
Experts point out the positive factors of the EU coming closer to the Ukrainian borders, such as increased stability, lower tariffs, learning from neighboring countries’ experience, an opportunity for a deeper involvement in common European processes and the proliferation of European standards throughout Ukraine, and a more active presence on EU markets. At the same time, they forecast reduction in the quantity and quality of ties, especially in the border regions, bitterer competition, the loss of traditional markets, and the invalidity of free-trade agreements with the Baltic states as well as perhaps a constant lag in development and separation from the common processes. What could cause the greatest pain is illegal migration, a problem that is already making itself felt, not only due to the operation in Afghanistan.
Incidentally, it is not only Ukraine that could suffer from EU expansion. For example, about two-thirds of small and medium businesses in southeastern Poland depend today on the trade with Ukraine and could incur serious losses if brought into line with EU requirements. Moreover, from the comments of high-ranking officials it follows that nobody in Warsaw has yet seriously thought this over. The same can also apply to labor markets in the countries bordering on Ukraine.
In general, according to a Razumkov Center survey, most of the Ukrainian population take a positive attitude toward EU expansion.
Oleksandr Chaly, Ministry of Foreign Affairs State Secretary for European Integration, noted, as he had earlier done in a Day interview, that Kyiv is today concerned most of all over EU plans to tighten border and visa regulations in order to address illegal migration. According to Mr. Chaly, Kyiv cannot agree to such measures being taken against Ukraine because the latter is not a source of terrorism or illegal migration. The diplomat believes that it is the right time to apply the experience of the Polish-German border settlement to the Polish-Ukrainian border with EU assistance. Now is the time to furnish protection to Ukrainians abroad in accordance with the standards of conventions and agreements. Now is the right time to turn to Brussels for making a concerted effort to prevent Ukraine from becoming a nesting point for migrants. In addition, as he put it, Ukraine should be more persistent in trying to get EU associate membership. Moreover, it is obvious that Ukraine itself should pursue a public, rather than accelerated, European integration policy.
Ukrainian policies lack transparency in general and in what relates to movement toward the European theater of operations in particular. There is neither a broad public debate on the pluses and minuses of both the EU expansion and the possibilities of Ukraine’s admission nor awareness of the fact that European integration means, above all, the implementation of European norms and standards in our domestic life.
This enables Ukrainian and Western experts conclude that the EU is unwilling, not least thanks to Ukraine itself, to radically change its policy about Ukraine, continuing to keep it at bay and deny it even a theoretical chance of being admitted on the crest of another wave of expansion. In principle, this is not a hopeless situation. But, so far, EU expansion only reinforces Ukraine’s peripheral status.
