Is the EU Forgetting about Ukraine?
Kyiv was expecting to host Javier Solana, Secretary-General of the EU Council and High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy. It has now been confirmed that the visit will not take place. Instead, as previously planned, on June 13 Luxembourg hosted a meeting of the Ukraine-EU Cooperation Council, which presented a preliminary evaluation of the progress that has been made on the Ukraine-EU Action Plan. There were no official announcements about Solana’s visit, which is why there have been no announcements that it has been canceled. It doesn’t take a genius to realize that under different circumstances this visit, which was expected to set at least some new accents in bilateral relations, would have taken place, with Ukrainian and European bureaucrats getting together to discuss its results.
However, now that some time has passed since the fiasco of the constitutional referendums in France and the Netherlands, feelings of indecisiveness have overwhelmed the political community of the EU member states and in Brussels. Unfortunately, this is also affecting the climate of Ukraine’s relationship with the EU.
During his visit to Ankara, President Yushchenko stated that Ukraine is not disappointed in the processes underway in Europe, including Europe’s response to the proposed EU Constitution. Interfax Ukraine quotes the president as saying that Ukraine is an integral part of European civilization and that full membership in the EU “is our strategic goal.”
Many of those who consider themselves analysts and experts on the situation in the EU countries commented during the past week that the rejection of the EU Constitution by France and the Netherlands may defer the beginning of Turkey’s and Croatia’s accession to the EU for a long time, and indefinitely delay the very discussion of such a possibility for Ukraine. Observers in Ukraine offer different views of this issue, but no one can trace a direct link between referendums in a number of EU countries and the possibility of Ukraine’s ever being invited to begin talks on EU membership.
During Yushchenko’s visit to Ankara it was reported that Germany’s Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer was insisting on a timely start to the talks on Turkey’s accession to the EU, slated to begin on October 3. As for Ukraine, there have been no statements that carry any significance for our country in terms of its European integration policy. President Yushchenko remains optimistic, and convinced, that the successful fulfillment of all requirements will create the preconditions necessary for the signing of an associate membership agreement between Ukraine and the EU by 2008. Not many EU member states have shown their support for these intentions.
EC Commissioner for Enlargement Gunter Verheugen said in an interview with the Polish Gazeta Wyborcza that there is no political climate for any further expansion of the EU. In his view, “the window of opportunities is closed,” and the EU must only fulfill the promises it has given to Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Turkey. Neither Ukraine nor any other countries are on Verheugen’s list. Six years ago he also said that any talk of Ukraine’s accession to the EU would be as irresponsible as discussions of Mexico’s accession to the US. Subsequently, the commissioner somewhat modified his opinion. There is nothing to indicate that the current, nearly apocalyptical, moods will not change as the situation unfolds.
The fiasco of the first constitutional referendums, discussions of what has happened and what is to be done, and the initial response of currency markets, with the euro weakening against the dollar and the yen, do not indicate a catastrophe. The EU continues to exist, and no country has spoken of a possible withdrawal from the Union, except that discussions of the possible admission of new members have become highly unpopular for now. The Union and all of Europe is simply experiencing another phase of its existence. The first phase occurred in the Cold War period, when it was all about creating a strong center of Western-style democracy in Europe. This center proved attractive, as evidenced by the expansion process that initially involved several neutral states (Sweden, Finland, Austria), and eventually spread to the former members of the rival Soviet camp.
It has now become obvious that public moods that took centuries to form and which deepened in the postwar period are in conflict with the requirements of growth and, quite often, with reality. France and the Netherlands are the first to openly declare that it is unacceptable for the EU to turn into a suprastate with its own president, government, and parliament (under the proposed Constitution), and for all important national decisions to be made outside their borders, in Brussels, by a group of international bureaucrats. Obviously, a percentage of those who voted against the Constitution also voted against any further expansion of the EU. This is true, much like the fact that while the Czechs, Poles, and Hungarians are seen as Europeans in the West, there is a completely opposite opinion about Ukrainians, Belarusians, and Moldovans. According to an opinion voiced at a prestigious forum in Austria this year, Ukraine is not located in Europe but in the former USSR. This shouldn’t be viewed as a tragedy either: 15 years ago the same was said of Poland. The Poles have managed to change this primarily through their own efforts: internal transformations, energetic work in various spheres (politics, diplomacy, nongovernmental sector, opening their borders to business, etc.). However, there is no denying the tremendous role that Pope John Paul II played in this process.
Ukraine will have it both easier and harder. Harder, because the uncertainty of the Constitution’s future is pushing Ukraine further to the back of the Europeans’ agenda; easier, because perseverance should sooner or later trigger a direct answer to a direct question. The direct answer can be either negative — in this case, there is no guarantee that the press in many countries will side with politicians and officials who can give such an answer, since it would constitute a violation of fundamental EU documents — or positive, in the sense that instead of vague formulations, such as “we’ll wait and see,” we will have a clear bilateral action plan that will clearly state the goals, the persons responsible for achieving them, and subsequent phases. It is too soon to speak about this. For starters, Ukraine must get the other side to express its readiness to begin this dialogue.
The latter option does not rule out a period during which there will be “four freedoms” in bilateral relations (free movement of people, goods, capitals, and services across the border), with Ukraine taking part in many EU programs without being able to take advantage of EU funds (the Structural Fund and Cohesion Fund) or directly influencing political decisions — the model that former first deputy foreign minister Oleksandr Chaly proposed several times in recent years.
Today it is obvious that the EU with its 25 members cannot live by the norms that made a comfortable existence possible initially for 6 and subsequently for 12 and 15 members. Likewise, the EU cannot claim to embody all of Europe. Discussions of the fact that a country’s geographical location alone is not reason enough to consider it as belonging to the “political Europe” could take place only in the past. Today they can only lead to new divisions and an inability to respond to new challenges and threats. This realization is inevitable.
Likewise, Ukraine must realize that the Europe to which we aspire to return must first become a reality in people’s minds. Europe should be associated with responsibility, and clear rules and standards for everything. It will take a long time to learn this. Perhaps this is why it makes sense to raise production capacities and create jobs — not at bazaars but in industry and science — and try to offer our specialists better conditions than they can have anywhere else. This would give Ukraine a chance to accomplish a great deal while the “Common Europe” is trying to recover from its first cold shower.
