EU Membership Premature for Ukraine but Not for Others

The visit by the Ukrainian delegation headed by Premier Yanukovych to Brussels for the EU — Ukraine Council session marked the first such high-level meeting in a quite long time. Significantly the European Commission and EU Council submitted to the European Parliament a document outlining the concept of relations between the enlarged Europe and new neighbors only the week before last. The visit did not justify the high hopes of the Ukrainian delegation at least on one point. Contrary to expectations, the EU has not granted Ukraine market economy status. However, as part of the visit a bilateral protocol on access to the goods and services markets was signed, and this is considered essential for Ukraine’s accession to the WTO. On the whole, the Ukrainian delegation seemed satisfied.

European Commission President Romano Prodi — who said last fall that even New Zealand could claim to have European traditions — was quoted by Interfax-Ukraine as saying that the document submitted the week before last will provide more instruments to deepen the relationship and that we must make stronger efforts to strengthen economic and political cooperation. Mr. Prodi further stated that Ukraine and Europe are not only friends but also strategic partners, that it is too early to raise the question of Ukraine’s membership in the EU, but every effort will be made to deepen the relationship within the framework of the existing agreement on partnership and cooperation. Such rhetoric is pretty much what we have heard before. As for Ukraine’s prospects, according to Mr. Prodi, “We are not building an enlarged European Union merely to shift borders. We are ready to move full speed ahead and not make small steps.” In his view, we should work to strengthen our relationship primarily in the spheres of gas transport, investment, and communications. Moreover, he added, the EU and Ukraine have agreed to hold a forum in Brussels to determine where we stand on the Odesa-Brody-Gdansk pipeline project. This will be possible only if the Ukrainian and Polish governments reach an agreement to build it. Premier Yanukovych also stressed EU’s interest in creating an international gas transport consortium.

Commenting on the EU decision not to grant Ukraine market economy status, European Commission representative Diego de Ojeda told the BBC that Ukraine has not done everything required of it, and EU representatives listed five points that still need to be addressed. “The points that need to be addressed include the Tax Code, corporate management, and elimination of state interference in corporate management. At best, we would like to complete this work before the EU-Ukraine summit this fall. According to the most realistic scenario Ukraine will be granted market economy status next year,” one of the meeting participants told The Day.

Commenting on the talks, Foreign Ministry state secretary Oleksandr Chaly told The Day, “We have ascertained one essential thing: the discussion of the document on the future relationship will last at least until the end of the Greek chairmanship in the EU. Everybody tried to convince us that Ukraine’s European prospects and the possibility of EU membership are not ruled out but can be discussed only in the long term. As for short-term prospects, we’ve been told that neither we nor they are ready for this.

“Among the positive indications that we received is a new concept of cooperation mechanisms. EU representatives have at last used the word integration with respect to Ukraine. We wanted to see a new concept of technical assistance developed, and this issue is being addressed through the creation of a program of cross- border cooperation and combining the TACIS and PHARE programs. We wanted to involve the European Investment Bank in Ukrainian projects. This issue is also being considered. We wanted to secure a visa-free travel regime for diplomatic and service passport holders. This issue is also under discussion as well as the issue of relaxing the visa regime as a whole, considering the growing demand for cheap labor in the EU.” Thus we can say that, except for a structured political dialog and joining the institutions, the EU is discussing with Ukraine a possibility to move as far ahead as possible.

Moreover, a bilateral protocol on access to goods and services markets has been signed. This is an essential part of Ukraine’s process of accession to the WTO. In addition, according to Mr. Chaly, great importance is attached to the Odesa — Brody pipeline within the context of EU energy security. Mr. Chaly also gave information about European Foreign Affairs Commissioner Chris Patten’s plans to visit Ukraine this spring.

As for the general background against which the EU and Ukraine are holding discussions, Ukrainian diplomats believe that, if anything, the EU is already feeling the first negative consequences of enlargement at a time when the EU is divided on the Iraq crisis, and this problem is a cause for great concern for them.

Premier Yanukovych tried to convince the Europeans of Ukraine’s “calm” attitude concerning its future in the CIS. Meanwhile, the first Western reaction to reports on the plans to create a single economic space of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan was one of mild bewilderment. Moreover, recently Russian Premier Kasyanov explained to Yanukovych without mincing words that such a space could work only according to Russia’s rules, while no reference was made to the WTO in their discussion. However, they talked of a common currency. Incidentally, cooperation within this space on WTO terms is a popular thesis in Kyiv.

COMMENTARY

Olha ALEKSANDROVA, researcher, Science and Policy Fund, Berlin

Why, in your opinion, is the EU devising new approaches instead of using the same instruments that have been successfully used in EU relations with the Central European states with respect to new neighbors?

“It’s clear why. They don’t want to create new problems for themselves. As far as I can judge, the EU decided that following its first wave of enlargement it will not welcome new members in the immediate future. However, at the same time they understand that it would be bad manners not to react to Ukraine’s constant knocking on Europe’s door. That’s why they start making up excuses. After all, when Gerhard Schroeder spoke in Kyiv about the possibility of Ukraine’s associate EU membership he must not have fully understood what he was saying, because he has never mentioned it again.

“Unfortunately, EU politicians have selected precisely this line in their relationship with Ukraine. And from now on it will be increasingly hard to discuss the future relationship.”

Are you saying the present uncertainty, with Ukraine not getting a definitive answer, will continue?

“They will never say yes, but they can’t say no either. That’s why they are offering Ukraine a new neighbor status. However, on the eve of EU enlargement the issue of this new neighborhood initiative will be relegated to the background. Against the backdrop of recent events and Chirac’s statements concerning Poland and Hungary, the situation can only get worse.”

Why, in your opinion, has the EU refused to grant Ukraine market economy status?

“Objectively, the European Commission could well have decided differently. The decision they’ve made is evidence of the fact that Brussels is applying very strict criteria to Ukraine. To some extent this is a signal to President Kuchma and his entourage. If they really want recognition, they should embrace reforms. Otherwise, problems will be unavoidable.

“Why was Russia granted such status? Because the US decided to give it to Russia in return for certain concessions. Under such conditions the EU found it difficult to make a different decision. As for Ukraine, the Americans are only discussing this issue.

“Moreover, the Kolchuga affair has given Ukraine a black eye. The Americans, of course, will not forget this business.”

Thus, for the time being we can forget about European prospects?

“I can’t say that Ukraine has no prospects. Everything will depend on what happens in Ukraine’s domestic politics. Speaking about the attitude of the EU toward Ukraine, we have to admit that the processes underway in Ukraine give little cause for optimism. Nobody has any illusions about those in power in Ukraine. And if the present government stays, this can only cause more problems.”