To the European Union in 15-20 Years
The Ukrainian Minister for Economics Oleksandr Shlapak said in his speech at the public readings on European integration in Dnipropetrovsk that “one of Ukraine’s major geopolitical tasks” is obtaining associate and then full membership in European Union. This subject is mostly discussed by the political beau monde of Kyiv rather than by ordinary people in the regions. To correct this imbalance, the Ministry of Economics and European Integration, supported by various international organizations, is conducting a series of public readings with the participation of public representatives, local authorities, and the mass media.
“Today the European Union is a model of a way of life for Ukraine,” said Mr. Shlapak. “While the post-Soviet space was falling to pieces, the EU demonstrated successful economic development and integration.” This example is enviable in many ways, even if only because an average European has an annual income of $23,000, while for the average Ukrainian it is $700-800.
Naturally, said Mr. Shlapak, the EU lays down rigid criteria for both full and associated membership of it, which are rather hard to meet. It is necessary to have stable prices, and to fall within certain limits for the public debt, budget deficits, inflation, and economic growth rates. Ukraine, being the first CIS country to sign an agreement On Partnership and Cooperation with EU as early as in 1994, in the Minister’s opinion, has achieved much towards this goal. For instance, in the last three years it has demonstrated highest growth rate in Europe, tamed inflation, and actively developed its trade with European countries. While in 1996 Ukraine’s foreign trade turnover was only $4,100,000, in 2001 it reached $7.2 billion, 19.2% more than in 2000. This year commodity circulation increased by 11.2% and service turnover by 9.3%.
According to the data quoted by the minister of economy, in recent years Ukraine has seen a significant improvement in many other indicators. Bank deposits from the population have grown rapidly (36.1% in 2001 and 40% in 2002). The domestic exchange reserve has increased by 25%, while foreign debt does not exceed the parameters established by the EU. In general, Mr. Shlapak believes that today Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators either answer EU requirements or their growth rates are big enough to reach necessary level by the time when the question of full or associated membership [in the EU] arises in reality.
However, the minister made no secret of the fact that the population’s active income leaves much to be desired, to put it mildly. For Ukraine, in its striving for EU membership, there are “two biggest problems”: the level of its economical development, which does not allow to secure a European standard in the social sphere (welfare, education, health care, culture, etc,) and its unpreparedness for real competition and the opening of borders. Answering questions from journalists and the readings’ participants, the minister complained that in certain sense Ukraine suffers an artificial isolation from Europe. “In recent years our country has proved itself better than the common opinion on it,” he noted.
However, in the minister’s opinion, Ukraine has a big enough chance of meeting the deadline for its European integration plan, i.e. to enter the WTO by 2004, become an associated member of the EU in 2007, and full member “in the next 15 to 20 years.”
Speaking about the need for broadening the integration process and involving into it industrial ministries and local authorities, many experts pointed to the backwardness of the integration infrastructure and lack of an information campaign in Ukraine capable of familiarizing ordinary people with the advantages of and need for the European choice. It appears that due to a lack of financing most European laws have not yet been translated into Ukrainian, while there are quite few civil servants and entrepreneurs speaking foreign languages in Ukraine. An enviable example of the “counter-integration” was given by head of the Center for NATO Documentation and Information in Ukraine Michael Duray who delivered his speech in Ukrainian, greeted with applause from the audience.
Be that as it may, according to statistics from sociologists of the Dnipropetrovsk branch of the Academy of State Management, in the last five years a considerable change has taken place in Ukrainians’ public conscience. Now as many as 51% of them support the European choice and EU integration, compared to the earlier figure of 20%.
