EVERY FOURTH UKRAINIAN WANTS TO EMIGRATE

The total population as of January 1 each year is assessed on the basis of birth and death records maintained by the relevant bodies (family status registration offices and village councils), as well as information on foreign migration (from internal passport offices). These may include some shortcomings (through no fault of the committee). Only some demographers might know. The point is that in some areas for various reasons the authorities may not record the death of a certain elderly person (who had no passport, the village council was too far away, relatives forgot to notify the administrative bodies, etc.). Migrations present special interest as far as population reduction is concerned. Let us examine this in greater detail.

Only in the late 1980s did it become possible for Ukrainian citizens to migrate abroad to such destinations and on such a scale as now. In addition to the well-known emigration (leaving this country for permanent residence), such a thing appeared as temporary migration to the West to look for temporary work. In Soviet times, the public at large was familiar with looking for better pay somewhere in the Russian north. No one knows how many of our citizens are abroad legally or illegally. In 1995 Russia's Ministry of Labor made public the figure that 1.5 million citizens of Ukraine were working in the Russian Federation. According to polls conducted by the Institute of Strategic Studies in 1996 and the poll of Ukrainians on the Western frontier conducted in 1998 with the aid of the International Migration Organization, about 1-1.5 million adult citizens of Ukraine regularly travel abroad for work. Here we should also distinguish between two types of such jobs: work (civil construction, mining, baby-sitting) and shuttle trading. Hence we can suggest that if a census was held in Ukraine this year as earlier planned the actual population would be 48-49 million. Other data can also be added to justify this figure. Using the European Union's Eurostat reference books, we can see that the number of our immigrants coming to some European countries is in fact greater than that of those leaving Ukraine according to official statistics. Thus there are other than official ways to go abroad permanently.

Referring again to sociological studies, this time conducted by Socis- Gallup which carries out annual nationwide polls together with the Democratic Initiative Center, we learn that in the latter half of the nineties about 20-24% of those surveyed, i.e., approximately 8-10 million adult citizens of Ukraine, expressed a desire to emigrate from Ukraine. Of course, this does not mean they will put their intention in practice, but the figure gives food for thought, the more so that a Socis-Gallup poll in April this year found a 30% rise in the number of those wishing to emigrate. As we see, the emigration potential is still quite high, which means more people will be leaving and diminishing the population in the future. Let us try to examine these trends and processes.

The citizens of this country have the right to emigrate. On the one hand, this testifies to a democratic governmental policy regarding the freedom of its citizens. On the other hand, under conditions of unemployment job vacancies frees up housing which has to decline in price; relatives (often jobless) and family members are sent hard currency, people acquire new languages and skills. But let us not indulge in wishful thinking. Those who leave are primarily young able-bodied people, many of them with higher education and academic degrees (brain drain). Immigration to Ukraine is far from being able to make up for these losses. Moreover, the plight of our workforce emigrants abroad is not conducive to a favorable image of Ukraine and a positive attitude toward our citizens. To illustrate this, let us quote Britain's popular weekly, The Economist , of May 8-15, 1999, «...wearing rags, these are no Mexicans, these are Ukrainians... Sometimes beaten corpses of Ukrainians are dumped in front of the Ukrainian embassy in Prague... They sleep right here on benches... 40-50 year old Ukrainian women service drivers along the road...» and so on. Perhaps it is no accident that our European neighbors are inclined to introduce visas. The same applies to our citizens in the East, in Russia.

What is to be done in such a situation? Of course, closing the frontier would be the simplest and worst way out. The problem of diminishing the intensity of the emigration of high- skilled personnel and that of illegal labor migration requires a solution on the level of the national government. It would be worthwhile to set up special sections at the embassies of the countries with the greatest concentration of our illegal emigrants (Greece, Italy, Poland, Russia, the Czech Republic, etc.), which could give legal and social information, aid, protection, and job counseling. To those who moan about the lack of funds, let me say that we are losing both the health of our compatriots and them themselves.