The German-French context

Ukraine’s accession to NATO’s Membership Action Plan (MAP) this December at the meeting of the alliance’s foreign ministers depends, to a significant degree, on Ukraine itself. It also depends on France and Germany-the two countries that are skeptical of Ukraine joining NATO-who have a negative attitude to Russia’s inadequate actions in the Caucasus.

This is the opinion of a group of Polish officials and experts, who recently spoke to Ukrainian journalists. They emphasized that the events in the Caucasus have improved Ukraine’s chances of obtaining the MAP. Olaf Osica of the NATOLIN European Analytical Center in Warsaw said that Ukraine would have fewer difficulties in joining NATO if there were agreement among the Ukrainian political elites on the question of joining the alliance and the idea had more public support. He added that a lot depends on the evolution of the German and French positions and the West’s assessment of Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili’s actions during the Russian-Georgian conflict.

«If Russia’s claim that the conflict was provoked by Saakashvili prevails, this will not only worsen Georgia’s chances for getting the MAP, it will also threaten Saakashvili’s hold on power. Since Ukraine and Georgia are in fact tightly bound together, Ukraine’s MAP prospects will also be impaired,” the Polish expert said.

At the same time, Osica emphasized that the conflict in the Caucasus has changed the context of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations as seen by two of the leading EU countries-Germany and France. Paris’s position is determined by two factors. France is skeptical about Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO, fearing that their accession may aggravate the conflict between the EU and Russia. The more acute a conflict, the harder it is for EU structures to operate on those territories.

Explaining the logic behind the French government’s activities, the Polish expert said that the temperature of relations is at stake. If Ukraine joins NATO, the temperature will go up. If Ukraine joins the EU, the temperature will go down. Moreover, France has ambitions regarding the increase of EU influence in the region. The competition for influence between EU structures and NATO as an Atlantic structure began in the 1990s.

In the NATO context, Ukraine’s accession to the MAP in December depends on Germany, which has not made up its mind yet. However, Polish experts say that Merkel was greatly displeased by Russia’s actions in Georgia and Moscow’s recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Osica thinks that Merkel’s speech in Tallinn is proof of the evolution of Germany’s position. Polish experts and officials note that Ukraine must give a clear signal about its willingness to join the MAP. The nature of the parliamentary coalition in Ukraine is not important. «NATO will never risk experiencing a failure in Ukraine. They want to be sure that the Ukrainian government’s intentions will not change with the change of coalition,” the NATOLIN expert said.

In their talks with Ukrainian journalists the Polish experts and statesmen noted that giving MAP to Ukraine will be a political decision, just as it was during the previous waves of NATO expansion.

This was emphasized by Mariusz Maszkiewicz, deputy head of the Eastern Policy Department of Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who reminded his listeners that political considerations rather than defense issues were taken into account when the decisions about Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and the Baltic countries joining NATO were made.

«We have to convince our NATO partners that giving Ukraine the MAP has to be made in December,” said Maszkiewicz. His colleague Tomasz Lenz, the head of the Polish-Ukrainian parliamentary group, noted that, unlike the situation in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the Ukrainian public’s attitude to NATO has not changed: the alliance is still chiefly considered as an enemy, and Ukrainian politicians have become hostages to prevailing public opinion.

As for the prospect of Ukraine’s EU membership, Polish experts and officials are convinced that the accession process will take a long time. At the same time, they emphasize that Ukraine does not need to talk a lot about its accession prospects or wait for a signal from Brussels, but it must do its best to come closer to the EU step by step. As Maszkiewicz noted, it is more important for Ukraine to enjoy visa-free travel and a free trade zone, and to implement economic reforms aimed at joining the EU imperceptibly.

He also mentioned the state building factor. According to him, the events in the Caucasus showed the weakness in the functioning of the Georgian state.

Maszkiewicz said that within the framework of its Eastern partnership Poland will do its best to help Ukraine become a powerful state. In private talks the Polish experts confessed that officials are beginning to feel Ukraine-fatigue because there is a lot of talk in Ukraine but no action.

Therefore, Ukrainian officials and politicians need to start listening to their EU and NATO partners to prove their dedication to the course of integration into European and Atlantic structures by means of actions, not just declarations.