Godfathers’ wars

A two-day conference organized by the Bronislaw Geremek and Jerzy Giedroyc Forum recently took place in Vilnius to discuss Ukraine’s future. The Day asked Lilia Shevtsova (she chairs the Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center and she attended the conference) for comment.

“For some reason we mostly debated the relationships between Putin and Yanukovych. These relations appeared to be a decisive factor in what has been happening of late, including the stoppage of the process of signing the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU. In fact, there are three aspects to this saga and, of course, the Putin-Yanukovych tandem is the decisive one. They know what kind of game they’re playing. This game can be best described in a novel entitled ‘The Godfathers of Ukraine and Russia.’

“For them the main thing is not to let anyone trick them. Naturally, the main thing for Yanukovych is to get financial support from Putin while not letting himself be taken on a leash, like Belarusian President Lukashenko. He has very little room for maneuver. If he gets anything from Putin, he will find himself in the same status as the Belarusian leader.

“The main thing about this tandem is the attempts of both heads of state, Putin and Yanukovych, to use intergovernmental relations between Russia and Ukraine for their own survival. It is perfectly clear that for Putin Ukraine is the strongest pillar of the Eurasian Union as the foundation of his political power. It is also absolutely clear that for Yanukovych Putin and Russia are the financial purse. The question is: Who will win this game? The way I see it, there will be no winner. Even now, as we say that Ukraine and Europe have lost and Putin won the game, Putin’s victory is rather questionable, considering that even the pro-Kremlin propagandists are somewhat restrained, saying Putin has won this round of the game. Russia will have to pay for Putin’s attempts to suppress Ukraine and have it on a leash. Next year Russia will have to part with 10 billion dollars. This means lower gas prices and various customs duties. And this considering that Russia is already in a state of recession and crisis, and now has to worry about falling down that abyss. Apart from Belarus, such an appendage as Ukraine will further worsen the Russian economic situation, and Putin has no guarantees that Yanukovych will remain on a leash.

“Kremlin propagandists figure out that after Yanukovych takes money today, he will win the 2015 presidential campaign and will then start flirting with the West. Putin is aware of this and so he is playing that godfather’s war game. From what I know, Putin hasn’t promised Yanukovych any money. Putin is not likely to make any serious promises to Yanukovych, least of all in terms of financial aid.

“Putin’s promise of 15 billion dollars is a myth. Putin is no fool and he will give Yanukovych money batch by batch, trying to hook Ukraine the way a junkie gets on the needle. However, it is important to see the third player outside this tandem. I mean Europe.

“It is necessary to ask this question: Has Europe done everything possible for securing Ukraine against Russia’s embrace or at least for lessening the losses sustained by official Kyiv and mitigating Yanukovych’s doubts? I don’t think so. Europe has not done what it did when the Baltic States were joining NATO and the EU. There is an explanation: Europe is living through a crisis and is preoccupied with its own problems. America isn’t interested in what is happening in Europe, least of all in Ukraine. Only several countries campaigned for Ukraine, among them Poland, Sweden, and Lithuania, but their efforts did not suffice to create a powerful European impulse that could convince Yanukovych to make the final decision without a doubt. There is yet another player in the field: Germany. It was also lazy. Of course, Merkel is in the process of forming a Cabinet. I would say that Europe hasn’t played an active mobilizing role that would make Ukraine’s European choice easier. The Eastern Partnership failed to exert a mobilizing influence on Ukraine because its principle was not to irritate Russia. Europe hasn’t had its say in Ukraine’s European choice. As regards the Vilnius Summit on November 29, my conclusion is that Poland, Lithuania, and Sweden will, of course, keep campaigning for Ukraine, to leave the door to the Association Agreement open for Kyiv. In fact, this door is open, although I don’t see how Brussels and separate European capitals can dispel all of Yanukovych’s doubts. There are two factors that can prompt Yanukovych to make a certain decision five minutes before the New Year. First, the European rally on the Maidan, if it continues. Second, if the Ukrainian oligarchs and business elite finally realize the danger of Ukraine returning into Moscow’s embrace.

“It is very important that the Yanukovych-Putin talks, what Putin is doing to Ukraine, sleeping a noose round its neck, all such doubts finally launched the Maidan. It is possible that this wave will be hard to stop. The European rally on the Maidan is also a thorn in Russia’s side. Putin had his share of fearful experience after the first Maidan in 2004. This Maidan will doubtlessly teach the Russian opposition, Russian civil society a lesson. I think the Kremlin is only too well aware of this.”

Do you think Europe will learn the lesson of the European Maidan and dispel Yanukovych’s doubts about the Association Agreement during the time left until the summit?

“I think you should know this better than I do, I mean whether or not Yanukovych sees his rescue and survival in Putin’s financial aid – or whether he sees Putin as a guarantee of his survival. I don’t understand this kind of psychology. Ukraine turning towards Europe may well be the end of Yanukovych, so he must be figuring out his options: Putin’s aid or the European Union’s promise of assistance, along with requirements that are actually undermining Yanukovych’s power. One thing is obvious: Unless Mrs. Merkel focuses on Kyiv and calls in artillery by pressuring Ukraine, along with financial aid, certain financial commitments, and requirements; unless the United States steps in with influence resources (no sign of this so far), I can see no factors capable of forcing Yanukovych to take on the challenge of new trade wars with Putin.

“I don’t understand how Yanukovych will make a decision in Europe’s favor without being heavily pressured – not by Brussels, no one takes Brussels seriously as it is clearly weakening and can no longer be a serious political factor – but by Berlin and Washington where serious politics is being made.

“I find it hard to visualize Europe consolidating its influence and power, suddenly becoming attractive to the Ukrainian political elite. I’m not sure the European Maidan will suffice to influence Yanukovych. Apart from the Maidan, this would take strong European, Western influence. The question is whether Europe and America will concentrate this influence during the days [left before the summit in Vilnius].

“There is also a psychological factor, I mean how much Yanukovych fears to become another Lukashenko on a leash. If Yanukovych feels that Putin is not to be trusted, that Putin is afraid of being tricked by Ukrainians and Yanukovych, that Putin’s support will be accompanied by many commitments on the part of Yanukovych, then this factor may sway his uncertainty.

“There is no uncertainty concerning Putin or the intentions of the players of the game. Most importantly, the myth about Ukraine turning into a bridge between Europe and Russia is absolutely ungrounded. This is impossible. Russia has faced Ukraine with a hard choice and dispelled all illusions about Ukraine being able to continue Kuchma’s policy best described by the saying that the affectionate calf udders of two cows. Ukraine must make up its mind.”