Gulf: Scouting with War Looming on Horizon
President Leonid Kuchma reached the “equator” on his Gulf voyage Monday, December 20. He had visited Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and was on his way to Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
It is the first such visit of the Ukrainian head of state and its key objective is to resume trade and economic relationships severed by the collapse of the Soviet Union. “I can feel that we are welcome guests here. I think that our talks will be quite fruitful, also in terms of economic cooperation,” stressed Mr. Kuchma, adding that Ukraine had, until recently, “looked mostly to the West and to Russia.” Ukrainian-Saudi commodity turnover has been noticeably on an upward curve over the past three years and now it is “practically three times that with Canada and certain European countries.” Interfax Ukraine quotes Leonid Kuchma as saying, “I believe that we must figure out where Ukraine’s economic — and consequently political — interests are [best served].”
The Ukrainian president’s tour of the Gulf region was a priori in the shadow of Iraq. The leadership of the countries Mr. Kuchma is visiting is not likely to pester him with questions about the possibility of Kolchuga sales to Iraq, but it is very likely to expect from him a clear statement of the Ukrainian stand in settling the problem of Iraq. This stand is practically a mirror reflection of that taken by all the Gulf countries he has visited. Ukraine insists that Iraq must be an open country and the same time does not support a military solution to the problem, preferring a political and diplomatic approach. During his last year’s tour of the Middle East, Leonid Kuchma dared make public a plan of settling the Arab-Israeli conflict. The world media did not seem to notice the Ukraine leader’s peaceful initiative, but Israeli and Palestinian diplomats did notice them. The former were not pleased by the proposal to dispatch a peacekeeping force to the region. Hopefully, Mr. Kuchma’s current peace planning will not result in a similar misunderstanding. Viktor Nahaichuk, special envoy of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, interviewed by The Day prior to President Kuchma’s trip, said that the leaders of the Gulf states would “be acquainted with our peaceful initiatives in detail,” that there would be an exchange of views on Iraq. “By this visit, at this time, Ukraine demonstrates its preparedness to uphold stability and security in the region,” stressed the diplomat.
Some experts do not rule out the possibility that the Ukrainian delegation will also discuss military-technological cooperation (the delegation includes Valery Shmarov, head of the Ukrspetseksport), although Ukraine does not stand much of chance in this realm. The countries Leonid Kuchma is visiting have long been buying armaments from the United States and US units are stationed in their territories. The notorious Kolchuga early warning system remains the only trump (even if not a very strong one) when negotiating the possibility of such cooperation in the Gulf.
Ukraine seems to stand a better chance in the economic sphere. The Gulf states have enough with which to buy Ukrainian goods and to invest in the Ukrainian economy — and this includes a variety of sectors, ranging from the space to construction industries. Kuwait is interested in railroad and aircraft construction. Ukrainian Transport Minister Heorhy Kirpa says that Ukraine will also bid in the tender for the construction of a railroad in Saudi Arabia. Foreign Minister Anatoly Zlenko made it known that Kyiv is interested in Persian Gulf oil. Of course, this interest is nothing new, although oil cooperation between Ukraine and the gulf states is not likely to become a reality in the near future. First, it takes working out transportation routes. Second, the question why Ukraine needs Gulf oil remains unanswered. Domestic consumption? Ukrainian experts insist that this oil is no good for the domestic refineries. Further transportation to Western Europe via the Odesa-Brody pipeline? A pipe dream unless the line is laid all the way to Poland.
In addition, Riyadh and Kuwait want to know the Ukrainian president’s views on Middle East settlement and the Iraq crisis. Here Ukraine practically shares the Arab states’ position: peaceful settlement in Iraq and last year’s Saudi Crown Prince Abdallah’s solution to the Arab-Israeli problem.
