GUUAM Gets Second Wind

Judging by the importance of the decisions made and special attention paid by the US, the latest GUUAM summit held July 3-4 in Yalta stands out against the backdrop of all preceding ones. US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Steven Pifer, former US ambassador to Ukraine, who is well aware of this country’s problems, announced the US did not need to join the organization as an observer “because we are already here.” However, out of the five chief executives of GUUAM member states only the summit’s host Leonid Kuchma and President Eduard Shevardnadze of Georgia, the organization’s current president, arrived in Yalta this time. Azerbaijan was represented by Prime Minister Artur Rasi-zade, Moldova by the first deputy minister of foreign affairs, and Uzbekistan by the president’s state counselor. And, were it not for the seriousness and importance of the decisions made, this summit might as well be considered as a prelude to the long-predicted natural death of the organization. Observers claim the new decisions can give GUUAM a new lease on life and the organization can get its second wind before going on to face significant opportunities. Pres. Kuchma said in his welcoming speech that “GUUAM’s organizational stage is at last over.” The result is a clearly shaped organizational structure capable of “implementing specific projects.”

The participation of the US, which shows a lively interest in GUUAM’s development so that the member states could foster closer European and trans-Atlantic ties (the US has allocated about $1 million to implement the projects for a virtual center to combat terrorism and to further develop trade and fuel transit), along with the participation of other countries and international organizations, attaches new worldwide importance to the association of five countries.

The GUUAM-US joint statement passed by the summit notes considerable progress of the organization in developing democracy and promoting steady economic growth, in which connection “the US side welcomes GUUAM’s desire to receive the status of observer in the UN General Assembly” and will render assistance at the beginning of this process, viz., in drawing up and presenting the necessary documentation to the UN Secretariat. Both Mr. Pifer and US Ambassador to Ukraine Carlos Pascual stressed in a Yalta interview they were satisfied that the summit managed “to reach a new level of work and get down to implementing concrete projects.” The latter comprise a virtual center to combat terrorism to be opened as early as September 1, 2003, in Kyiv and in Baku and such important projects as cooperation in the field of transportation, culture, inter-parliamentary affairs, customs, border security, emergencies control, and establishment of a free trade zone. In their words, this will only help Ukraine and other GUUAM countries join international organizations. As Mr. Pifer said, if Ukraine manages to solve many other problems indispensable for NATO membership — democratic development, political and military reform, etc. — then even the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s base in Sevastopol will not be considered an insurmountable obstacle to this country’s accession to NATO.

The summit also touched on the domestic political situation in Ukraine. Ambassador Pascual said that Steven Pifer and he had told President Leonid Kuchma about the widespread impression that the main objective of combined parliamentary and presidential elections is to extend the incumbent president’s term of office. According to the ambassador, Mr. Kuchma retorted that when he mentioned that for the first time, addressing Verkhovna Rada in February, he said that “such joint elections could be held in 2014”, and he stressed during the meeting that “now it is not the right time to take this step.”

Then the journalists specified, “How will the US react if Mr. Kuchma changes his mind, holds elections in 2006, and thus extends his term of office?” Mr. Pifer answered that President Kuchma made himself very clear on this issue. “In America we are closely watching the democratic development of Ukraine, for it has a great impact on the relations of Ukraine with the United States and NATO, taking into consideration the NATO summit to be held in 2004,” Interfax-Ukraine quotes him as saying.

In all, nine documents were signed last Friday in addition to the final communique and a joint GUUAM-US statement, namely, an agreement on establishing a virtual center to combat terrorism, organized crime, drug trafficking, and other offenses; a memorandum of mutual assistance in trade and transportation; intergovernmental agreements on cooperation in the prevention of emergencies, in customs matters, and in the field of education; protocols on border security cooperation and collaboration among the member states’ Academies of Sciences. This will allow the parties to speed up the solution to such problems as transit corridors, cooperation in the oil industry, combating international crime, as well as humanitarian problems. The tasks are very important. As Pres. Kuchma noted, the GUUAM states “have not so far been able to establish an effective full-fledged free trade zone”, it is necessary to “redouble efforts to ensure the effective functioning of transit corridors” and include the latter into the European and worldwide fuel transit systems. In his opinion, the GUUAM states “must not drop the ambitious plan of establishing an East-West southern transit corridor based on pan-European transit corridor No. 5 which is to be extended eastwards and connected with Eurasia-bound corridors.” In his view, implementation of the Eurasian Oil Transit Corridor project is now assuming strategic importance. This means Europe will find it more attractive and, moreover, realistic to finish construction of the Odessa-Brody oil pipeline. The president of Ukraine also pointed out that after the Yalta summit GUUAM will have rosy opportunities for cooperation with the OSCE to implement the free trade zone project, as well as with the European Union in the field of energy supply. In fact, the transit of Caspian oil to Europe was considered one of the main reasons why GUUAM was formed, but this business can only get to a flying start if the EU acknowledges the strategic importance of the Odessa-Brody pipeline. It is noteworthy that the Yalta summit did not discuss any reverse-mode operation of the pipeline.

As the concluding communique states, the next GUUAM summit is to take place in 2004. Eduard Shevardnadze said he would be pleased to hand the GUUAM presidency over to Ukraine.