How Can We Clear the Logjam of “Successes?”
A new cabinet will be formed within a week. As a result of last Friday’s meeting between the president and the leaders of the various parliamentary factions, Viktor Yushchenko gave acting premier Yuriy Yekhanurov one week to hold consultations in the Verkhovna Rada about the ministerial candidates, and asked parliamentarians to effectively cooperate with the new cabinet. Attending the meeting were Yuriy Yekhanurov, Anatoliy Kinakh, presidential chief of staff Oleh Rybachuk and his first deputy Ivan Vasiunyk, the president’s permanent representative in parliament Serhiy Sobolev, and representatives of all parliamentary factions except for the SDPU(O) and the Communists. At least it is now clear whom the current government considers its implacable opponents.
This post-crisis situation has given rise to the intriguing question of whether this “narrow circle” of oppositionists will be enlarged at the expense of Yuliya Tymoshenko’s bloc (BYuT). Last Friday the BYuT faction demanded an immediate meeting with the president to hear from the Ukrainian leader why “those who fought for the Maidan’s ideals were put on the same shameful line with those who betrayed them.” Faction leader Oleh Bilorus noted that the BYuT “has not yet worked out a pattern of conduct in the new conditions but it is not going to be in opposition to the people, the state, and the government.” This caution may be explained by the fact that during the seven months of Ms. Tymoshenko’s premiership her political force quickly acquired the signs of a “party of power.” One of these is the influx of business people, who are not exactly bursting to see their pro-governmental party slip into the opposition.
In all probability, Tymoshenko’s fellow party men will not enter the new cabinet. Incidentally, last Friday a Web site showed a forecast of the future government’s lineup “based on information obtained from sources close to the Secretariat.” According to this forecast (which looks like another attempt by certain individuals to hype themselves a bit), at least half of the members of Tymoshenko’s government will retain their seats. Yet, Interfax-Ukraine quotes Mr. Yekhanurov’s spokesman Valentyn Mandriyevsky as saying that his boss “ is not currently considering candidacies for the new Cabinet of Ministers,” and the Internet list of new ministers “is clearly at odds with elementary logic.” “We must first of all work on the structure and the functional principles of the government. The main thing is the budget,” said Mr. Yekhanurov’s spokesman. Still, it is a distinct possibility that the new cabinet will not be entirely new.
What is beyond any doubt is the president’s intention to propose to parliament Mr. Yekhanurov as prime minister. Ukraine’s State Secretary Oleh Rybachuk also confirmed this at a Friday press briefing. It should be recalled that in order to be confirmed as prime minister, the candidate must obtain at least 226 votes in parliament. On February 4, 2005, 373 MPs — an all-time high — voted Ms. Tymoshenko into office. Analysts are also quite optimistic about Mr. Yekhanurov’s chances of being approved by the Verkhovna Rada.
Even now it is practically certain that the second post-revolutionary cabinet will be Yushchenko’s, not Yekhanurov’s. Experts unanimously agree that the Yekhanurov cabinet will be a caretaker government that will exist for seven “pre-election” months and focus on keeping the economic mechanism running and tackling day-to-day problems. It is unlikely that any radical reforms will be carried out in the time left before the elections. The new cabinet will probably be far less politicized: unlike his firebrand predecessor, Mr. Yekhanurov has never laid claim to leadership in a big political bloc, let alone the presidency in the 2009 elections. His cabinet will be free of political “jealousy” or rivals, which is undoubtedly a plus.
The epicenter of the political struggle will thus shift once again to parliament and pre-election debating corners.
