How Should the Withdrawal Of Our Troops from Iraq Proceed?
It was relatively easy to foresee a decision to withdraw the Ukrainian peacekeeping force from Iraq (especially against the backdrop of attempts to win more electoral votes). Yet it is still difficult to predict all the consequences of this step. It is by no means easier to get the servicemen back to Ukraine than it was to send them there in August 2003. This is quite a cumbersome process that will require consultations with coalition partners (above all, the US and Poland), significant costs, and time. There being various opinions about the date of withdrawal, most experts think it is impossible to pull out the troops in one fell swoop because this involves airlifting a lot of servicemen (almost 1,600) and equipment. All this will require additional security measures, for the long-range relocation of a military column may incur a considerable number of risks, given the rather tense situation in Iraq. A diplomat from a Western European country that is part of the Iraq coalition told The Day ’s correspondent “there would be consultations with the new leadership of Ukraine.” He said he doubted that the new government of Ukraine could change its mind later, but noted that the coalition partners expected a balanced decision. In particular, the diplomat said that by immediately withdrawing its troops, Kyiv would be jeopardizing other countries’ contingents because it would take quite a time to find a replacement for the Ukrainian soldiers. Here are some comments from a group of Ukrainian experts on the withdrawal of Ukrainian peacekeepers from Iraq.
Oleksandr SUSHKO, director; Center for Peace, Conversion and Foreign Policy, Ukraine:
“The decision to withdraw the contingent from Iraq was quite predictable. This issue was raised long before as an election campaign ploy. The election winner in fact promised to pull out the troops, so he is unlikely to reconsider this decision. The question is now about the dates, conditions, and procedure of the withdrawal. Last December the Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution to this effect and then submitted appropriate recommendations to the president. In fact, all political parties favor the withdrawal of peacekeepers for various reasons. Now that there is a certain consensus about the necessity of the withdrawal, the issue is going to be tackled from the technical viewpoint, as it were. There will also be talks with our partners, namely, the US and Poland, as well as with Iraq’s legitimate government, should the latter be elected. So I don’t think it will be done in the twinkling of an eye, within a week or so. There will be a coordinated and, let us say, more or less streamlined process of withdrawal.
“I don’t think this will trigger a very strong reaction on the part of the US and Poland. Clearly, they will be discussing this matter with the new Ukrainian leadership, trying to persuade it to carry out the withdrawal over a long period of time — unlike Spain did last year. We can already draw a conclusion from US politicians’ comments that they understand that Ukraine is determined to pull out its force. Today, in contrast to the days of Leonid Kuchma’s presidency, the Ukrainian military presence in Iraq is not the only way of maintaining normal relations with the US after a protracted crisis. There is going to be more diversified cooperation with the US, and Iraq is unlikely to be the sole, chief issue in these contacts. So there will be other factors that will help us build a friendly relationship.
“Society has reached a certain consensus: approximately 85% of Ukrainians are in favor of the withdrawal. On the one hand, a democratic government can assume responsibility to defy public opinion, but on the other hand, this should only be done out of dire necessity. Still, taking into account the domestic political situation and the fact that almost all political forces support, one way or another, the withdrawal of the contingent, this kind of necessity is unlikely ever to arise. In any case, none of the political forces has dared today to defend or somehow explain Ukraine’s military presence in Iraq. So, in principle, there are no grounds for any debates now. In other words, the only question is when and on what conditions. The first step will probably be a reduction of the contingent’s strength and eventual withdrawal by, for example, the end of this year. But this is the longest possible period. It is more likely that the troops will be pulled out in the summer.”
Yevhen KAMINSKY, Professor, Doctor of History:
“I am convinced that sending our contingent to Iraq did not serve the national interests of Ukraine in the world. This was pure image- building. In my opinion, the situation in Iraq, one way or another, is going to reach the point where the Americans will be the only ones remaining there. The Iraqi elections, which will be held later this month, will enable the countries whose forces are stationed in that country to decide whether it is worth keeping the troops there.
“One must also take into account whether our country is capable of maintaining its peacekeeping force on a proper level, without relying on foreign aid. In this context, I don’t see why the contingent should be kept in Iraq. In my view, the US’s reaction will be calm and balanced, based on an understanding of Ukraine’s domestic situation. The Americans took a very fair view of a similar step taken by Spain. And I do not think this will stop US businesses from boosting their investments in the Ukrainian economy or affect George Bush’s attitude to Viktor Yushchenko.
“It will be very difficult to scrape up the funds for the withdrawal when our current budget has not yet taken shape and we have an interim government. This could only be done at the expense of social programs, but the new leadership will never opt for this. In other words, a quick withdrawal cannot be carried out without foreign assistance. Is this assistance possible? I think not. So I believe this will be a gradual and rather protracted process. After all, everything will depend on what will be going on in Iraq after the elections, on whether the Iraqi people will manage to quell the armed uprisings and unravel the never-ending civil strife and whether the new leadership will manage to consolidate the nation.”
Serhiy ZHURETS, expert, Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies:
“Both presidential candidates stated earlier that our contingent should be pulled out of Iraq, so by and large the problem has in fact been solved. By all accounts, the current situation in Iraq differs radically from when the Ukrainian force was being sent to that country. The contingent has accomplished the political mission of ironing out differences with the US against the backdrop of the Kolchuga radar scandal.
“I think that if the eight Ukrainian servicemen had not died tragically, nobody would be hurrying to make a decision on the contingent’s withdrawal, even though Yushchenko has made a statement to this effect. I believe the withdrawal is fully justified from the viewpoint of strategic interests. We should not forget that late last year Poland also announced that it intended to reduce its military presence in Iraq. The situation in the region is not at all simple. On the one hand, the countries that joined this operation earned no dividends and, on the other hand, they are running greater-than- expected risks. This essentially means that the US side will have to bear the brunt of the whole operation if it fails to find sufficient levers to influence the countries that are downgrading their presence. The US has already said that the decision on withdrawal should be made by the new president of Ukraine after appropriate consultations. This may well create a legal collision. Although President Kuchma makes a formal decision about the withdrawal, this decision in fact falls into a certain legal vacuum: who must give a direct instruction? I think Yushchenko will have to do it, and the dates that [Minister of Defense] Kuzmuk mentioned — the withdrawal of the first battalion in March and the others four months later — may well be reconsidered. I do not think it will be possible to quickly resolve all the problems of replacing the contingent, transferring responsibility, and providing cargo aircraft. The contingent’s withdrawal will cost $11 million over six months. The sooner the withdrawal date, the greater the expenditures will be for this operation.
“As for the coalition partners, the Americans will react with controlled dissatisfaction, the Poles will take a cautious stand, but if they fail to find a viable replacement for the Ukrainian military, both the Poles and the Americans will seek every opportunity to hold back the Ukrainian force as long as possible because somebody must work in this zone of responsibility. Simply “cutting and running” would not be a very nice thing to do with respect to the coalition partners.
“Some people think that we must replace our military presence in Iraq with economic cooperation and participation in social programs. But I don’t quite agree with this, because it is next to impossible to carry out economic contracts in a country with a still unsettled security situation. How can one prospect for oil fields if oil specialists are being kidnapped? It is equally difficult to conduct relief operations when people are being killed right on the street. We cannot talk seriously about any economic projects until military operations stabilize the situation in the region or the elections bring about genuine stability.”
