How will the elections in France and Russia influence Ukraine?
The media differently assess the results of the presidential elections in France and Russia. The Day addressed the experts and asked them to answer two questions: What did the presidential elections in France and Russia have in common? How will their results influence the situation in Europe and Ukraine in particular?
RUSSIA WILL TRY TO CALL UKRAINE TO HEEL AND FRANCE HAS TO UNDERSTAND ITS IMPORTANCE
Yurii KOCHUBEI, former Ukrainian ambassador to France:
“It is very difficult to compare different regimes. It requires large analysis and time. We have to consider the conditions in which they were held. The French election went normally. As I thought, Hollande won. In Russia it was known long ago who would become the president. I think it was known even four or five years ago.
“The election in Russia went with a lot of noise and hubbub. They have already gotten used that the power changes this way and there are no great emotions and passions at the elections.
“It is difficult to predict how the election in Russia will influence Europe and Ukraine. Formally Russia will pursue its policy trying to call Ukraine to heel and keep it in the orbit of Russia’s influence.
“The situation in France is more interesting since there the accents have been shifted. Probably, the new president, as a ‘new broom’ will pay more attention to Ukraine and will consider the importance of our country in the European context. Our country is interesting for Europe but we cannot sometimes prove it and demonstrate it with specific examples. We should do it to make France understand: Ukraine is an important part of the European security structure from the point of its potential and geopolitical situation. It is also important for the global security as well. In my opinion, Ukraine has been playing and will play important role in the structure of the European and global security. France has to understand it. The new president has to reconsider some of the events that had happened before he came to power. Previously Ukraine was not among the priorities of Paris. Let’s hope that we will be there since France plays a big role in Europe’s and global development. However, hope is not enough and we have to work on it.
“Putin has lost his invincibility and Hollande hopes for Merkel’s concessions…”
THE DEADLOCK OF PUTINISM AS AN EXAMPLE FOR THE UKRAINIAN POLITICIANS
Edward Lucas, editor, International section, The Economist:
“Russia did not have a presidential election. “Election” implies choice and uncertainty about the outcome. Both were true of France. Neither is true of Russia.
“Hollande will secure some token concessions from Merkel but I do not think the fundamental power relationships in Europe will change. Germany (along with other solvent countries) has the money and sets the tune. Russia is heading for change. Putin has lost his invincible popularity and the regime’s business model is broken. I doubt he will last his full six years. Russia’s problems exemplify the dead-end of Putinism – corrupt authoritarian rule. That is a good lesson for any Ukrainian politician tempted to copy that approach.”
