How will the “second ceasefire” end?

So far, it looks like the second so-called ceasefire may repeat the fate of the first. The Ukrainian side suffered around 30 soldiers dead and many more wounded then. The terrorists fired at positions of our security forces and destroyed the infrastructure of the region. As a result, the anti-terrorist operation was resumed and the army started to liberate occupied Ukrainian cities. How will the “second ceasefire” end? The latest news: the Russian military presence in the Donbas is on the increase; militants shelled Debaltseve; Donetsk heard the sounds of volleys again; Russian soldiers in Ukrainian uniforms fire at Donbas militants... We see that the militants and Russian troops keep up their campaign of attacks and provocations. What may its consequences be? Who will benefit from another so-called ceasefire? Looking for answers, we talked to military expert at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation Ihor KOZII.

“Everyone knew in advance that the so-called ceasefire would not hold. I think the issue is that the Ukrainian government is now trying to create conditions enabling us to strengthen the national defense. One may recall the first ‘ceasefire’ that brought no results and we had to begin active hostilities. I would like to emphasize that the internal aggression and danger is much greater than the external one. I think the president senses it, and that is why we have the so-called ceasefire and they fail to implement certain laws.”

What do you mean when you speak about the internal danger?

“First of all, this is the ‘fifth column.’ Many of our MPs are members of the Party of Regions or Communists... Former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili once said: ‘Corrupt people will always find a common language with Putin.’ Such people do not care in the slightest about the state of the nation, as they prioritize their fortunes and lust for power.”

The point is that even after the election of a new president, there have been no radical changes in uniformed services. Why it is so?

“Our still unreformed defense sector is the result of corruption in the system. It is difficult to conduct reforms when there is no stable pro-presidential majority, and the judiciary continues to work according to the old rules. Yes, I am also unhappy that we have not been able to get rid of traitor generals in six months, or to do a complete investigation regarding the tragedy in Volnovakha or the IL-76 shoot-down...”

With the annexation of Crimea and the aggression in the Donbas, Ukraine has lost 20 percent of its defense industry. Who should be held to account for it?

“To purge personnel one needs a functioning military counterintelligence. It has not yet been rebuilt. The structure has been destroyed, and there are no qualified personnel for it to be rebuilt. However, we still have to work in this direction.

“Unhealthy party competition is detrimental for the war effort too, as it brings the ‘quota principle’ into play, which has led to mediocre people getting important offices.

“The president is now trying to find a consistent force which would help him reform the country. People in uniform should be non-partisan, but it is military counterintelligence, now absent in Ukraine, that should ensure it.”

However, we understand that Russia is also preparing and regrouping.

“Yes, but they do not have a ‘fifth column,’ and their resources are much greater than ours. We must contribute to the emergence of a strong enemy of Russia, as we will not make it on ourselves.

“Russia clearly understands that the elections may turn their ‘fifth column’ into minority in the Verkhovna Rada, and they will then totally lose their control over Ukraine. We should remember also that the winter is coming, which will complicate the Crimean peninsula’s situation, as Russia will not be able to supply everything necessary for Crimea. Hence, the Russians strive to establish a land connection to Crimea along the coast. The Russian aggression will expand.”

What future developments do you expect? How will this so-called ceasefire end?

“I hope that the efforts of the Foreign Ministry will pay off, first of all with regard to looking for allies who will strengthen Ukraine in military and political terms. We do not necessarily need shells and bombs, it would be enough to transfer technologies and supply equipment, to replace massive Russian theft of it from Donetsk and Luhansk regions. This raises the question: why had nobody thought to resolve these issues in time, despite there being a clear threat?”

Some experts point out that the Minsk agreement will make a “second Transnistria” out of the Donbas. What is your opinion on it?

“I do not rule out this possibility. It depends on how conscious or unconscious are all the moves made by the Presidential Administration. It is Valerii Chaly and Pavlo Klimkin who are responsible for it. If we waste the so-called ceasefire, then their approach will be pro-Russian rather than befitting responsible statesmen’s. On the other hand, if this time is used to strengthen the defense capabilities of the state, their approach will deserve our respect.”