Illusion of a Free Hand
While Russian military officers pondered the consequences of a possible US retaliatory attack on the Taliban movement, Aslan Maskhadov’s guerrillas seized the second largest city in Chechnya, Gudermes, and held it for several hours. A missile blew out of the sky a Russian helicopter with two generals and eight colonels of the General Staff (including Anatoly Pozdniakov, first deputy head of the chief operations department) over Grozny.
It would be very dangerous for Russia if its leadership succumbed to the illusion that, following the terrorist attack on the US, the military now had a free hand dealing with the guerrillas in Chechnya. In fact, they are already acting this way, carpet bombing the entire republic. What next? Shortly before the US tragedy, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov declared that the Russian contingent will never leave Chechnya. Naturally, the head of the war department had to keep up morale in Chechnya after President Putin hinted at the possibility of talks “even with Citizen Maskhadov.” Even if he did it in his own special Putin way, adding threats and entreaties, the hint is still there, after several years of assurances that the only place to talk to Maskhadov would be in front of a court martial. This is an encouraging sign for those supporting the idea of peaceful settlement in the North Caucasus. It is also a very unpleasant sign for the military, already accustomed to having the war department’s prestige held hostage to Chechnya.
Be it as it may, the defense minister’s statement implies precisely what he said: there is no end to the war in Chechnya in the foreseeable future. For Russia, the lasting presence of its army in one region on its territory, engaged in real combat operations, is tantamount to defeat. It means that the original mission to restore constitutional order in Chechnya and resume normal life has failed; that this republic will remain a battlefield, with the neighboring regions living in constant fear, because the hostilities could always spill over to their land; it means that there will be a constant threat of acts of terrorism in Moscow and other cities in central Russia, because such acts have become an inalienable component of the Chechnya conflict. In other words, it means that Vladimir Putin’s main promises during the presidential campaign (e.g., restoring law and order in the North Caucasus and upholding security throughout Russia) will never be fulfilled.
The Russian president should heed the statement made by one of his closest associates. By saying that Russian troops will never leave Chechnya, Sergei Ivanov actually admitted that the Chechnya problem cannot be solved by using the army. Officers and men constantly in action can benefit only generals getting promotions and then set off to various regions in Russia to rest on their laurels. All this is a very heavy burden on the federal budget, threat to the future of the Russian political system, and to the taxpayer that has to make constant sacrifices to keep the army on track — sacrificing not only money, but also his children. Sergei Ivanov made a courageous gesture, speaking in Khankala. Unlike his predecessors who would announce withdrawal deadlines after every successful mission, he actually admitted that the Russian army is unable to carry out its mission; that the only way to at least keep the situation in Chechnya the way it is now is to have the Russian contingent remain. Moreover, the latter’s position should be constantly reinforced, turning Chechnya into a military camp. This is truly a war without end, because generations still remembering a peaceful life are being replaced by those raised in a military camp, and these people know no other life but war. The Afghan experience, when hostilities continued until the Soviet troops withdrew, should be a sobering lesson for the Russian military, yet the officers at the Kremlin seem sincerely convinced that the Afghan affair was left uncompleted and that in Chechnya they will finish what they started.
Yet things that generals fail to comprehend are often easily understood by civilians. Sergei Ivanov told Vladimir Putin: never! But the president apparently does not have as much time as his war minister does.
