It has begun
President Viktor Yushchenko’s statement about the need to consolidate the three megaparties — the Party of Regions, Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko, and Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense — has sparked various reactions. Whereas the prime minister’s comrades in arms immediately set about cooking a coalition porridge with the most exotic ingredients, the BYuT and representatives of the propresidential bloc have no intentions of improvising in the coalition kitchen. They want to cook their coalition dish according to one BYuT + NU-NS recipe. But there are exceptions to every rule. The democrats would not mind adding some spice to their dish in the form of Lytvyn’s bloc, says Yurii Lutsenko, the number-one member of the propresidential bloc.
The coalition saga of 2007 has begun, and things are not going smoothly. Proof of the fact that the coalition cauldron is not boiling on schedule is that the promised deadlines have already passed. Yulia Tymoshenko said she would meet with the president on Monday to discuss in detail all the architectural nuances of the coalition project in the BYuT + NU-NS format. Today is Saturday [the day this article was written — Ed.] and the coalition wagon is still there. When the election campaign was going full blast, Viktor Baloha, head of the NU-NS election headquarters, had assured the public that it wouldn’t take longer than an hour to form a democratic coalition. Well, no comment here, as they say.
The impression is that the propresidential bloc does not have a single decision-making center. This situation is causing serious complications. Whereas leading NU-NS party functionaries, like Yuri Lutsenko and Viacheslav Kyrylenko, keep talking about siding with the BYuT, the people on Bankova Street are either keeping mum, biding their time, or hinting at a broad coalition. The BYuT’s Volodymyr Yavorivsky was probably right when he declared that in order to avoid repeating past coalition mistakes a big statue of a garden rake should be unveiled in downtown Kyiv.
Despite the fact that the coalition process has just begun (let’s hope it does not turn into another political saga), one can clearly see another Ukrainian-style coalition tradition emerging: backstage groping in the dark. Negotiations are being conducted on all fronts, with orange and white-blue talks being held behind tightly closed doors. Where there is no transparency, there is always room for bluffing and maneuvering. Therefore, it is very difficult to predict the coalition results in 2007 in the presence of this predictable unpredictability.
There are a few results, however. The Regionals recently met with representatives of the Lytvyn and communist blocs. According to Raisa Bohatyriova, certain tentative arrangements have been made. The majority’s principle will be Ukraine’s unity. Volodymyr Lytvyn, leader of the bloc named after him, agrees with this. The communists also support this slogan, provided there will be no BYuT or propresidential bloc people in this coalition. Raisa Bohatyriova, Volodymyr Lytvyn, Adam Martyniuk, and, for some reason, the socialist Yaroslav Mendus spent some time holding talks behind closed doors. Lytvyn was the first to speak with journalists. “I regard the president’s proposal for a broad coalition as the correct stand. All the rest means a sequel to instability. There is no ruling out new early elections. Our country will not endure them.” The fourth Verkhovna Rada speaker emphasized that he is not interested in occupying posts, including the speaker’s seat, so he is calmly holding talks with the Party of Regions and the BYuT. Still, he hasn’t made up his mind about siding with either of them. Prime Minister Yanukovych’s comrades in arms want to bring everyone together. The maximum is four political forces.
The blue-whites say in no uncertain words that the success of the consolidation operation will largely depend on the stand taken by the Guarantor of the Constitution. Bohatyriova assures the public: “We are not enemies, we were just opponents. Today, we are participants in the negotiating process. We are not going to sacrifice anyone, and we believe that this very term is humiliating in regard to our possible partners and possibly our opponents.”
There is talk in the corridors of power about Bohatyriova getting the speaker’s seat if the foundation of the coalition structure turns out blue-white.
The communists do not like the idea of getting all the players of the parliamentary game together under one coalition roof. Their leader, Petro Symonenko, offers his own formula: PR + CPU + Lytvyn’s block. If there aren’t enough votes, Symonenko says they may reinforce their position through BYuT and NU-NS defectors. In fact, this defector maneuver may well prove to be effective, since the imperative mandate bill has not been passed. In the event of a broad coalition, the communists will work hard to master the science of being in the opposition. Symonenko says: “Proceeding from the ideological differences that we have with Our Ukraine, this is impossible and I said so from the outset.”
On the opposite side of the political spectrum is a totally different concept of the coalition mosaic. The propresidential bloc has no intention of binding itself by any coalition commitments to the Party of Regions — only with BYuT for reasons of love. After a recent meeting with President Yushchenko, Lutsenko, the number-one Orange man, gave his assurances that the NU-NS and BYuT will have a majority in the Verkhovna Rada. He also hinted that the democrats’ coalition doors are open for Lytvyn.
The ex-interior minister insists, “We reject any other provocative statements concerning the formation of a broad coalition, which would be a continuation of dirty games.” He added that it is too early for talks with the Regionals. Once a democratic coalition is formed, then we will meet with the PR as the opposition. So far the BYuT + NU-NS coalition can count on 228 seats. President Yushchenko says that “there are enough votes to form a government, but this will not resolve the issue of political stability.” Indeed, what with several MPs reporting sick, there will be no required 226-vote majority. This is why Bankova Street needs Lytvyn to reinforce the coalition, and he is only too well aware of this. The ex- speaker says: “I want the country to live in peace and quiet; I don’t want to have 226 MPs compared to 224, or 228 compared to 222.” Obviously, this is why he is desperately bargaining and in no hurry to play his trump cards too cheaply.
Another thing that must be considered is that it would not be advantageous to Yushchenko to dispatch Tymoshenko to the opposition. Even the hypothetical PR + CPU + NU-NS + Lytvyn bloc would have 294 votes. Amending the constitution requires 300 votes. (The president said that 2008 would be dedicated to a new constitutional process and adopting a new wording of the Fundamental Law.) Also, given this alignment of political forces, in the event of a broad coalition, there is a risk that some Our Ukraine’s leaders, with Lutsenko and Kyrylenko topping the list, will support the “core” faction. Therefore, a coalition with Lytvyn is the optimal option for the BYuT, NU-NS, and the head of state.
However, there is not much time left for reading Ukraine’s political tea leaves, since (fortunately) the law sets out clear-cut deadlines for the formation of a majority in the Verkhovna Rada, submitting candidates for the post of prime minister, and other tasks. In other words, even if the new MPs decide to keep playing at the endless coalition roulette, it won’t work for them. Under the law, the next parliament will have to form a coalition by Dec. 15.
The fact remains that by the deadline all the coalition game players without exception can be suspected of cheating. None of us have forgotten the scandalous 2006 coalition, and it is hard to predict who will pull the joker out of his sleeve and force the collapse of parliament at the very last moment.
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Section 1, Article 96 of the Law of Ukraine “On the Election of People’s Deputies of Ukraine” states that the Central Election Commission must establish the election results and draw up an appropriate report no later than on the 15th day after the election (i.e., no later than Oct. 15, incl.). Article 97 of this law states that the CEC must publish these results in the newspapers Holos Ukrainy and Uriadovy kurier no later than the 15th day after the results are determined (i.e., no later than Oct. 30, incl.). The official announcement of the election results provides grounds for dismissals from posts, which cannot be combined with an MP’s mandate, and for passing decisions about the curtailment of another mandate. The MPs must submit a note to the CEC, confirming their retirement from such posts or the waiving of their mandate no later than the 20th day after the publication of the official election results. This provides grounds for registering a member of the Ukrainian parliament. The CEC must issue him/her with a temporary MP ID card within seven days.
The first session of the Preparatory MP Group is to be held no later than 10 days after the official announcement of the election results (i.e., no later Oct. 25). The first session of the newly elected parliament must take place no later than 30 days after the official announcement of the election results (i.e., by Dec. 14). After that, the MPs have 60 days (i.e., by Jan. 18, 2008) to form a government.
EXPERT VIEWPOINT
Volodymyr MALYNKOVYCH, political scientist:
If the president chooses the broad coalition option, he will actually declare war on Tymoshenko, in which case he will halve his supporters, at the very least. I guess that in this case more than one-half of his supporters would side with Tymoshenko. Lutsenko is a spineless politician. As for Kyrylenko, Katerynchuk, and other people from this bloc, especially those representing the Ukrainska Pravytsia bloc, they will not form an alliance with Yanukovych. This is absolutely unacceptable to them, just as many Yanukovych supporters find an alliance with Yushchenko unacceptable.
If a broad coalition is formed, this will mean that Tymoshenko will have considerably reinforced her position and will have a minimum of 40 percent rather than 30. How will these ratings increase? With the aid of propresidential bloc members who will cross over to her and even some PR members. As a result, she will crush Yushchenko during the presidential elections. Right after Yushchenko’s broad coalition statement she declared without hesitation that this will never be and that she will go into the opposition. She knows that if she goes into the opposition, this will be the end of Yushchenko. She is acting absolutely decisively because she is confident of her strength.
You know that I am an outspoken opponent of the Orange Revolution, but I believe that this election must be recognized, and Tymoshenko should rule the country because she obtained the majority. I don’t like this situation; I am not among her supporters, but this is a fact. By the way, the Party of Regions should join the opposition in order to become a party rather than a business clan. We don’t need any broad coalition, since this wouldn’t be a coalition but a conspiracy of oligarchs.
