“It is very bad, both for us and for Europe”

The presidential election in Austria, which took place on April 24, revealed a few surprises. Firstly, and unexpectedly for all observers, the first place went to candidate of the right-wing populist Freedom Party Norbert Hofer. With all votes counted, the 45-year-old Hofer leads the race with 36.4 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, 72-year-old non-partisan candidate Alexander Van der Bellen, supported by the Green Party, took the second place with 20.4 percent of the vote. This leading duo will participate in the second round of the presidential election in Austria, which will take place on May 22.

Secondly, for the first time in over half a century, no major party candidate reached the second round. Candidates from political parties which make up the ruling coalition, Rudolf Hundstorfer of the Social Democratic Party of Austria and Andreas Khol of the conservative Austrian People’s Party, each gained about 12 percent.

Thirdly, 36 percent of the vote is the best ever result of the right-wing populists in Austrian federal elections.

Characteristically, the candidate of the nationalist Freedom Party Hofer won in all the states of Austria with the exception of Vienna. It should be noted that Hofer belongs to the party which is known as the most supportive of Russia out of all political forces in Austria.

During the campaign, he called for the immediate lifting of sanctions, energy cooperation and the resolution of the Ukrainian-Russian crisis on the basis of “the right of nations to self-determination.”

The results of the first round of the presidential election shocked many Austrians. It was because polls taken before the election predicted that the former leader of the Green Party would take the first place. Therefore, many see this result as a protest vote. Only 12 percent of the Austrians believe that the country is moving in the right direction, while 52 percent adhere to the completely opposite view.

This result means a great victory for the Freedom Party, which had some image issues under presidency of its earlier leader Joerg Haider who died some time ago. Recent polls show that the Freedom Party could easily win the legislative election receiving more than 30 percent of the vote. The party played on the fears of a possible influx of refugees into the country. From the start of the crisis, Austria has taken more refugees per capita than Germany. In this respect, the election results will serve as a reminder to other EU countries, showing the political price of admitting refugees.

Hofer’s success also highlights the power of the anti-European message at a time when Europe is deeply divided as it faces many challenges ranging from economic stagnation to the refugee crisis.

“Hofer’s first round victory shows that a large percentage of the Austrian population prefers authoritarian policies that appeared in Hungary and Poland in recent years and include weakening parliament, undermining the balance of power, opposing the EU’s directives and putting restrictions on press freedom,” a prominent Austrian journalist wrote in a comment for Der Standard.

Before submitting his candidacy for the election, Hofer himself was little known outside the party. An engineer by training, he gained a reputation in the Freedom Party as the “chief ideologist” and the lead author of its platform. Hofer, who was partially paralyzed when paragliding, attracted public attention as a defender of the rights of the disabled.

The success of Hofer and his statements as a possible future president of Austria on the need to lift the sanctions against Russia cannot but worry Ukraine.

“It is very bad, both for us and for Europe. The EU is on the decline. The European idea is going into oblivion, leaving behind a vacuum that is filled with pro-Putin ‘pragmatists.’ Hofer is very bad. He is against the EU and for Russia. Meanwhile, Bellen is just for Russia,” a Ukrainian diplomat commented on the results of the first round for The Day on the condition of anonymity.

“THE EU CANNOT BUT BE DISTURBED BY THE FAR-RIGHT’S GROWING POPULARITY IN AUSTRIA”

Daria HAIDAI, analyst of the Institute of World Policy (IWP), Kyiv:

“The Freedom Party has been steadily ascending in the polls over recent years, so a high result of their presidential candidate was predictable. What was unexpected was the huge lead achieved by Hofer in the race with his nearest rival, the Greens’ leader Van der Bellen, as he has 36 percent against the latter’s 20.

“Austria is going through a critical period, marked by the end of the so-called ‘era of grand coalitions,’ which saw two political parties – the People’s Party and the Social Democratic Party – ruling the country for half a century. The Austrians are looking for an alternative, and the Freedom Party is this alternative at the moment. Having timely identified fears and preferences of the electorate, the Freedom Party with its new leader Heinz-Christian Strache began to appeal to traditional Christian values with the addition of the anti-immigrant and anti-NATO messages as well as harsh criticism of the EU. Amid the migration crisis, the Freedom Party is increasing its presence in local government bodies. Let us recall that the far-right gained more than 30 percent of the vote in Vienna’s municipal elections in October 2015.

“As for their sympathy for Russia, I must admit that no political force in Austria is critical of the Kremlin. The only difference is in rhetoric, but in practice, all of them are in favor of dialog and an early normalization of relations, the search for consensus which would take the interests of Russia into account. The recent scandal with the chief of the General Staff of Austria was quite revealing in this context. In early April, he met and had a friendly conversation with his Russian counterpart (even though Austria is a neutral state, mind you). Russian media published the substance of the conversation, which the Austrians believed to be confidential. The government of Austria was very unhappy with this turn of events, since they would have preferred to keep the conversation secret.

“Perhaps the Freedom Party will be more open in their contacts with Russian representatives, but this does not mean that we will see a fundamental change of policy. Of course, the EU cannot but be disturbed by the far-right’s growing popularity in Austria. We may recall here that the Freedom Party joining the government as a junior coalition partner in 2000 sparked protests both in Austria and abroad, while the EU introduced diplomatic sanctions against a member state for the first time in its history. Of course, today the situation is completely different, because we are seeing growing popularity of right-wing parties in almost all EU countries. This is not an Austrian problem, but a systemic problem of the public’s disappointment with the EU’s policies. EU leaders will have to decide how to respond to this new challenge. At the same time, we should not overdramatize the situation. At the heart of the Austrian foreign policy are economic interests, so critical statements about the EU’s institutions are highly unlikely to translate into any radical steps that might harm the economic position of Austria within the Union. Besides, the position of Germany is important as well, since it is the main economic partner of Austria.

“What should Ukraine do? While working on the Audit of Foreign Policy initiative, the IWP analyzed Ukrainian-Austrian relations in the past 10 years to identify common grounds. Our recommendations’ presentation will be held on Thursday, April 28. The Austrian policy towards Ukraine will be decisively shaped by the internal situation in Ukraine. Political instability, deteriorating economic and social situation would make Ukraine ‘not interesting’ for Austrian investors, and therefore for Austrian decision makers as well.”