Kopacz promises to back Ukraine

Last week the Polish Sejm approved the new government headed by Ewa Kopacz. Let us remind that changes in the Polish government happened due to former Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s appointment to the post of the President of the European Council. But the attention of many experts was drawn to Poland by the fact that the new government did not include Radoslaw Sikorski, who was promoted to Speaker, but used to have influence in the European arena as the Foreign Minister. His post was taken by Grzegorz Schetyna, who does not speak English and constantly avoids commenting the current situation in Ukraine.

Expert on Central Europe at the Northeastern University (Boston, USA) Mitchell Orenstein described this replacement in an interview to the World Politics Review in the following way: “This is a step of a prime minister who is very inexperienced and pays attention mainly to the situation within the country, instead of considering Poland’s position in the world. It’s like replacing Henry Kissinger with Ted Cruz.”

On the other hand, according to Orenstein, the new appointment is not a demotion for Sikorski, but rather an opportunity for him to diversify his record, so he can potentially become a presidential candidate. The expert thinks that Sikorski, who has a sober view of Russia, which is a rare phenomenon in Europe, will consult Tusk on his new post, which will let him influence the EU’s policy towards Russia.

It should be mentioned that Kopacz’s first interview after being appointed to the post on September 22 by President Komorowski, in which she noted that Poland’s new government would carry out a pragmatic policy towards Ukraine, aroused criticism among politicians as well as experts. In particular, when answering a question about Poland’s position towards selling weapons to Ukraine, she said that Poland must act as a sensible woman: “Our security, our country, our home, and our children come first.”

It seems that criticism has somewhat influenced the Polish prime minister. When speaking at the Sejm on the eve of the vote of confidence, Kopacz promised to continue the policy of supporting Ukraine. “We support the pro-European direction in Ukraine’s development. But it is Ukrainians who have the responsibility to change their country,” she said.

The Day addressed analyst Andrzej SZEPTYCKI with a request to omment on the changes in the Polish government and whether they will influence Warsaw’s foreign policy towards Kyiv.

“THERE ARE TWO COMPETENT PERSONS WHO WILL COORDINATE FOREIGN POLICY, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN DIRECTION”

Andrzej SZEPTYCKI, analyst at the Institute of International Relations of the University of Warsaw:

“Ms. Kopacz presented her government’s program, which is better organized in matters of foreign policy, at the parliament. She presented clear priorities of foreign policy. Firstly, it is Poland’s position in the EU, secondly, close cooperation with the US, thirdly, strengthening of the defense potential of the country, and lastly, support of Ukraine.

“I think the first problems we saw were related to the fact that this team did not have a quite clear understanding and did not engage in foreign matters before. I mean Kopacz and in some sense, the new foreign minister. At the same time, it must be pointed out that there are two competent persons who will coordinate foreign policy, especially in the eastern direction. On the one hand, it is former defense minister Tomasz Siemoniak, a member of the previous government, quite a competent person, and he has been appointed as a prime minister now. And this shows that Poland wants to react correspondingly to the complicated situation that we see in South-Eastern Europe now. On the other hand, it is President Komorowski, who had greater influence on the formation of this government than on Tusk’s one. That is why I hope these two persons will in some sense become guarantors of the normal national foreign policy in the presence of this new foreign minister and new prime minister, who are not expert in foreign issues.

“I my view, it is unreasonable to talk about some kind of pro-Russian orientation of the new government in relation to Russia, as some experts do. The first statement made by Kopacz shows she had no clue what to talk about in regard to such issues.”

How exactly can the support of Ukraine, which is planned by the new government, be implemented?

“First of all, we are talking about supporting Ukraine in its integration into the EU. Secondly, it is military cooperation. Recently we created a joint Polish-Ukrainian-Lithuanian battalion. Thirdly, the issue of supplying weapons to Ukraine is still unsettled (it has not been closed). And finally, the help in the implementation of the Association Agreement is also important. I think there are a lot of ways to support Ukraine.”

Will Speaker of the Polish Parliament Radoslaw Sikorski be able to influence Polish foreign policy, and if so, in what way?

“Yes, he has some discreet possibilities on the level of legislation. For example, we can ask when Poland will ratify the Association Agreement with the EU, since some member states have already done that. He can act on this level. He can develop parliamentary diplomacy unofficially, as the head of the parliament, but not as a representative of a country in international law.”

Can Ukraine count on Donald Tusk, who will become President of the European Council on November 1, in matters of settling the crisis in Donbas?

“He has to coordinate the activity of the European Council and be its representative on this post. In this sense he will not be a representative of Poland. And if Tusk was appointed to this post, it was recognized that he is a representative of Poland who finds the Ukrainian issue important. Each person on such post has their own preferences and concepts. But they must be implemented in a way which would not be perceived as open lobbying, which contradicts the authority of such person.

“In other words, Tusk will do it if opportunities allow to do it in a diplomatic and effective way.”

“RUSSIA’S GOAL IS TO TURN UKRAINE INTO A NONFUNCTIONAL BOSNIA-STYLE STATE”

What prospects of settling the crisis in Donbas do you see?

“I do not see any swift settling of the conflict. Bosnia had the same experience: first, second, third, fourth plan on settling the conflict since early 1990s, and now only students learn this, because nobody remembers about it. Obviously, the conflict was somewhat softened in Minsk. But if we look at the situation related to the Donetsk Airport, we can see this plan is not working.”

In relation to the prolongation of the conflict in Donbas, some experts started using the term “Bosnification of Ukraine.” What can you say about it, do you see any similarities?

“Indeed, there is a great risk of such process. But the Donbas conflict is local, the state keeps functioning and in this sense Ukraine is not Bosnia. Therefore, I think that a Bosnian scenario might be implied. And Russia tries to turn Ukraine into Bosnia. And not in a sense that the war there lasted for five years, but to turn Ukraine into such a nonfunctional state which exists in Bosnia now. It has been 19 years since the war was over, but they still failed to create a normal state. There are three parts of the federation that cannot cooperate jointly and form a country. It seems to me that Russia’s goal is to turn Ukraine into a nonfunctional Bosnia-style state.”