The Kremlin will work for early ratification of SES agreement
Ukraine has somewhat forgotten about the Single Economic Space (SES). At first the SES theme was upstaged by the Tuzla tussle. Then the process was temporarily slowed down by parliamentary elections in Russia. It was Vladimir Putin who reminded the State Duma last week about post- Soviet integration by moving a draft agreement on establishing the Single Economic Space. Meanwhile, Russian presidential elections are approaching.
What little the Kremlin is short of is Ukraine’s enthusiasm. There is almost no doubt that Kazakhstan and Belarus will follow the Russians in doing the exercise called ratification. Ukraine is different: unless its parliament says yes, the SES will remain more than the subject of further world economic polemics. Many experts have repeatedly said that Kyiv will not choose to put SES agreement ratification on the Verkhovna Rada agenda before the presidential elections. Ukraine has not yet fully recovered after a parliamentary conflict over the political reform. It may well be supposed that Verkhovna Rada will see similar developments when it begins its SES debate.
The Day’s sources say the Russian Duma plans to discuss a package of three Ukrainian-Russian documents — a state border agreement, a treaty on cooperation in managing the Sea of Azov and the Strait of Kerch, and the agreement on establishing the SES. Moreover, Russia hopes the Ukrainian parliament will do the same. Russia perhaps expects Verkhovna Rada to accept the SES in exchange for Russian consent to ratify the state border agreement. However, these are by no means equivalent documents because the steady implementation of the SES documents could eventually erase all borders on the post-Soviet territory.
It looks like the mission of presenting arguments in favor of SES ratification was bestowed on the recently-elected Russian Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov. Knowledgeable diplomatic sources report that persuading Verkhovna Rada deputies to ratify the SES agreement will be one of the main goals of the visit he is supposed pay to Ukraine, according to the parliament’s press service, on February 25. In any case, the tendency is quite clear: the Russians are trying to get the SES agreement ratified before their presidential elections. The latest parliamentary elections in Russia displayed the electorate’s affection for so-called integrationist political forces, be it United Russia, Fatherland, or the Liberal Democratic Party. It is difficult to believe that President Putin, who once called the collapse of the Soviet Union “an enormous nationwide tragedy” will not play up to that electorate. Actually, he is ready to do, not just play, things.
A Verkhovna Rada debate on the SES will be to Ukraine’s disadvantage not only because this could bring about a parliamentary stalemate and, hence, halt the political reform. Ukraine’s foreign policy is a subject of close attention abroad, especially in NATO and the EU. NATO is scheduled to hold a summit in Istanbul in June. It is during this summit that Kyiv will try to embrace the Membership Action Plan, i.e., to raise the level of cooperation with the alliance. Last year The Day published an interview with Bruce Jackson, president of the US Committee on NATO, who noted he would find it difficult to explain Ukraine’s alliance with Aliaksandr Lukashenka or Nursultan Nazarbayev to US Congressmen. Mr. Jackson also called for persuading the Russians not to introduce the SES too fast but instead to try to make a thorough analysis of its foundations and objectives.
In addition, negotiations are still going on between Kyiv and the European Union on drawing up the Action Plan, which Ukrainian diplomats hope will become an intermediary stage in the process of European integration. All Kyiv has so far managed to convince Brussels of is that the document should be valid for not more than two years. In addition, Ukraine wants the plan to include a provision at least about Ukraine’s integration into or, at most, about association with the EU. Can Kyiv count on something of the sort should the parliament approve the SES agreement? The European Commission has made it clear that integration into the European Union will be out of the question if Ukraine forms a common customs space with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. What Brussels agrees to is the formation of a free trade area only. Conversely, Russia would like to see a higher level of integration. What kind of signal will Ukraine send to the EU if it ratifies the SES agreement? On the other hand, the unclear position of EU functionaries on the two fundamental points — Action Plan goals and market- oriented status of the Ukrainian economy — reduces the number of arguments in the hands of the advocates of true European integration in their dispute with those who claim that Brussels does not care about us, and we must march with head held high into the SES.
Please read below the interview Boris Gryzlov granted to The Day on the eve of his visit to Ukraine.
