Life on the Periphery
Even those who take no interest in politics know that Russian- Georgian relations have worsened and that Vladimir Putin made what television journalists and analysts of the semiofficial televised “Vesti nedeli” described as giving his “last warning” to President Eduard Shevardnadze. Likewise, everybody interested in politics realizes that there will be no military operations in the Pankisi Gorge. Such is the paradox of not only the Russian-Georgian relationship or of the situation in Pakistan, or the war in Chechnya, but also of the Putin epoch. Paralyzed by the war of clans, the Russian leadership has long been unable to make serious and justified decisions. Instead, they have learned to go through the motions of such serious and justified decision-making (true, this make-believe is good only for the domestic audience). The presidential administration, prosecutor’s office, military and security ministries and agencies might as well be laid aside in the presence of television, the press, and political scientists laying themselves out describing the prophetic and innovating activities of the vacationing chief executive.
In fact, this author is prepared to join all those analysts and admit that Vladimir Putin’s statement was indeed an excellent opportunity to learn whether the United States is prepared (on the eve of possible hostilities in Iraq and being supported by far from all its allies) to connive at what is happening and let Russia relive the sweet dream of being master of the post-Soviet space, even if for a short while; of having “consolidated the empire” thanks to the American tragedy – as a Russian newspaper described it, marking the anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attack. Alas, there is no such consolidation in reality. As luck would have it, just as the Americans were making statements in favor of Georgia, which Russia regarded as rash from the standpoint of the Russian national interests, US Undersecretary of State John Bolton visited Moscow. There is no way to pretend there was no response from Washington.
Still, the semiofficial Russian media had no problems assessing the situation and their verdict was: the US does not support Georgia. Why? Simply because President Bush made no statements after meeting with Georgian ambassador and a short conversation with the Georgian foreign minister. A statement was made by the State Department and its reaction, according to Gazeta.ru, only served to support the assumption that there was a Russian-US deal trading Georgia for Iraq. Remarkably, the people shaping Russian public opinion refuse to see that the very fact of the head of state meeting with the ambassador – rather than president – of a small poverty-stricken country in the Caucasus means even more than support, and that, following such a meeting, the State Department did not have to make any statements; but even if it did, any such statements would be a signal not to Russia but to the US allies that they were free to comment on Russian politics, without being afraid to act in unison with Washington. As for any alleged Russian-US deal, this simply does not hold water, not because US politicians are models of unblemished morals, or because the US stand is comprehensible and correct (as Mr. Bolton instructively told Moscow journalists), but because Russia has no way to obstruct US actions. CNN could have played part of Mr. Putin’s angry soliloquy in between air raids, but nobody asked the Russian president where his country would head after quitting the antiterrorist coalition, because this would be a rhetorical question.
After all, the point is not that a Russian military operation is not likely to take place in the Pankisi Gorge, using ground forces, for purely technical reasons or that Eduard Shevardnadze was quick to take advantage of this to strengthen his regime, or even that Russia, like the European Union, cannot find sufficient arguments to prevent the US military from operating in Iraq. The point is that Russia, owing to last year’s fluctuations and its desire to retain key positions within the antiterrorist coalition and maintain its friendship with traditional allies, has found itself on the periphery of world politics even to a greater degree than before September 11, 2001, because it became clear that everything has become possible everywhere, even more so in the post- Soviet space, without Russian participation. However, both the Russian leadership and political elite are sure that the said province is actually the center of the universe. They keep convincing the Russian population that it is really so from television screens, as though continuous propaganda could change anything in the political reality.
