Lukashenko launches election campaign

A time has come that a European country, even if it has an authoritarian ruler, must follow, at least ostensibly, some democratic procedures. In particular, it must hold elections more or less periodically. Belarus is also in for fresh elections, and the head of state is more and more pondering on this.

Moreover, there are things to ponder on. In spite of an ostentatious public optimism, the economy is taking a downturn. The attempts to fill the budget sometimes look a bit exotic. Now the president suggests levying a tax on those who travel abroad to buy goods, then those out of work must pay for being temporarily unemployed.

Yet all this produces diametrically opposite results. By all accounts, the budget is not being filled, whereas panic is on the rise among the populace. Hence is a wish to top up on foreign currency because the government may play any trick at any moment. Currency exchange outlets are running short of dollars and euros, and lines are longer and longer.

Belarusian First Vice-Premier Vladimir Semashko has said the industry will not manage to reach a planned 8.5-percent growth this year. On the contrary, the government is expecting a slump by at least 2 percent.

People respond to the deteriorating economic situation by increasingly migrating, first of all, to Russia. Hence is the attempt to impose a tax on those who do not work – something like a total mobilization of labor resources.

Tellingly, the abovementioned Semashko has complained about what was a sacred cow until recently – the Customs Union. Addressing the Belarusian Parliament, he said: “Owing to an inadequate legislative basis of the Customs Union and the Single Economic Space, where there are a lot of exceptions and withdrawals, we are suffering major losses and often losing whole niches on the CU market.” He cited, as an example, the Russian government’s resolution that had in fact closed the Russian market for Belarusian farming machinery.

Economic problems may turn into political ones. Alexander Lukashenko knows very well that inflammable material is gathering in society at a breath-taking speed, and no administrative resources will work in a tense situation. So it is necessary to urgently find a lighting conductor of sorts that will absorb, at least partially, the negative energy. It is better and simpler to do by following a well-known principle: the tsar is good, but the boyars are bad.

Being instinctively aware of sentiments in the higher echelons, industrial managers and top officials are braced for high-profile dismissals and new criminal cases. President Lukashenko promised to resume personal inspection of the most important businesses in the near future. It is enough to watch Belarusian television to see that there will be inevitable staff relocations and the corresponding decisions.

The country’s topmost boss uses live TV programs to “dress down” industrial manager and top officials. A week ago he promised to “screw off and put under his arms” the heads of government ministers. The president is going to personally visit enterprises and inspect the way his valuable instructions are being fulfilled. All this does not augur well for managers, ministers, and their deputies.

All TV channels showed the president dismissing the Minsk Oblast Governor Boris Batura and Deputy Chief of the Presidential Administration Andrei Tur, when he was visiting a woodworking mill in Borisov. Five officials were told that criminal proceeding might be instituted against them. A few days later Lukashenko inspected Keramin, a ceramic slab factory and ordered it to be “renationalized” because “it was set up at the people’s cost and belongs to the people.” Visiting the transport logistics center Minsk-Beltamozhservis-2, he scathingly criticized the government for failure to fulfill the program of building trade logistics centers. Lukashenko pointed out: “It’s not up to the president to do so, but what else can I do if the government does not work?” Looking at the Belarus leader’s activity, experts predict an upcoming dismissal of the current Cabinet. The president put all the blame on the latter for economic faults.

The question why those who were wise yesterday are inefficient today remains, naturally, unanswered, as does this one: who else is responsible for topmost-level staff placements if not the tsar, pardon me, the president? As they put it: like priest, like people.

But to oust the bad boyars, “appoint” and exemplarily punish the allegedly guilty is an important thing but not the whole problem. The grassroots must know that the president cares day and night about the country’s security.

To this effect, Lukashenko held a meeting at the Baranovichi-based mobile strategic command post of the armed forces about the prospects of modernizing the air defense and combat support systems. It was decided to update and readopt about twenty Su 27 planes recently phased out of the Air Force. Visiting the 61st Air Fighter Base near Baranovichi, Lukashenko said he wanted to see the preparedness of Belarusian pilots and remained satisfied.

The presidential inspection is, of course, a publicity stunt of sorts, but it also has a different side.

In late October, Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a joint session of the two countries’ defense ministries that the two sides had almost completed to draw up an agreement on the deployment of one more squadron of Russian fighter planes on the territory of Belarus. Lukashenko seems to be resisting this and trying to delay the solution of this problem as much as he can. Maybe, he begins to bargain again in order to make Russia just give the aircraft to him.

Another problem is that the Russian military are much better paid than their Belarusian counterparts. Why should the president stir up envy in Belarusian officers? The “father of the nation” needs a loyal army during the presidential elections.

COMMENTARY

Valery KARBALEVICH, political scientist, Minsk:

“There are no elections – in the common meaning of the word – in Belarus. There is a political campaign called ‘presidential elections.’ As part of it, Lukashenko emerges as both participant and arbiter. When you are a player and the referee at the same time, it is very difficult to outplay this team. The likelihood of Lukashenko remaining the president is extremely high.

“Yet Belarusians are tired and want changes, but the existing political system provides for no legal power change mechanisms. This is the problem. Belarusians would like to see changes, but, given the current situation, they are not prepared for a revolution. But the truth is there is no other way to change power in the country.

“There are no revolutions in Belarus due to a series of economic, political, geopolitical, psychological, and other factors. Firstly, the most discontented tend to leave Belarus. Belarusian experts are now arguing about the number of people who have left the country. Some of them say it is about one million. Secondly, it is the enormous Russian subsidies – about 10 billion dollars a year – that allow keeping the country stable. Thirdly, it is an authoritarian repressive regime which harshly foils any protest attempts. It is also absence of public politics in the country and very weak independent media. These factors stand in the way of any serious and radical changes in Belarus.

“Lukashenko conducts a presidential campaign all the time, without a pause. The current campaign is fundamentally different from the previous ones in that the present-day political situation is very complicated. The main linchpins of the presidential campaign are an artificial pay rise and increased repressions. There are never-ending repressions against all the political opponents [of Lukashenko]. As for the pay rise, it is beset with serious problems. The economic situation is very difficult, and there are no resources to raise wages. The government of Belarus has in fact planned to essentially reduce the people’s living standards in the next year. This means increased public utility rates, reduced crediting for housing construction, etc. In other words, it boils down to slashing all the social expenditures and raising taxes. Moreover, the government invents all kinds of ‘exotic’ taxes to fill the budget. As the presidential elections will be held in 2015, there are practically no resources for raising wages in 2014. For this reason, wages will be cut at first and then raised in the year of the presidential elections. This is the particularity of these presidential elections. But this also shows that the economic situation in Belarus is much worse than before.”

Interviewed by Ihor SAMOKYSH, The Day