Marek SIWIEC: Beware of a numerical majority in parliament
Most of the international delegations monitoring the election campaign in Ukraine have few complaints. All this inspires hope that the world community will positively assess the Ukrainian elections. Last weekend Marek Siwiec, head of the Europarliamentary mission of observers, disclosed his impressions of the election race. Several times he stressed that no significant violations have been found in Ukraine. Most of his recommendations concern the post- election processes in Ukraine. From the start this well-known Polish politician (ex-secretary of the Security Bureau of Poland) noted that he was not speaking as an observer. Mr. Siwiec also agreed to give some non-diplomatic answers to The Day’s correspondent.
“Some people are saying that the Ukrainian parliamentary elections will be the most important elections in Europe this year. Why are they considered so crucial?”
“These elections will show what the Ukrainian people are going to do with the achievements of the Orange Revolution. You know all the participants of the current race: there are no absolutely unknown people running for parliamentary seats. You know what the Our Ukraine leadership is. You know how Ms. Tymoshenko worked in her post. You know how Mr. Yanukovych worked in the same post. Of course, they have changed a little over the course of time. But you are facing a very fair game, a proportional-representation election. You are in fact going to conduct a large-scale opinion poll about whom the Ukrainian people trust and what kind of policies they would like to see in the future.
“I agree that this is an historic election, but I do not think it will be a dramatic one. Sometimes people ask me if I think that the Ukrainian elections may result in a catastrophe. I see no catastrophe. The Ukrainians are set to elect politicians who they think must lead the country into the future and shape the essence of this future.”
“Western international organizations are incessantly calling for transparent and democratic elections in Ukraine. One year ago these same institutions sang the Orange Revolution’s praises, calling it the irreversible triumph of democracy. Are there really any grounds today to think that the elections might be unfair? Or do these words concealing something?”
“The last presidential elections were dramatic. Since then there were two changes of government, in which political adversaries occasionally worked. I know that everything has always been possible in Ukraine. So I don’t see even the faintest chance of foreseeing what kind of coalition will be formed after the elections.
“There are two things to which observers pay the most attention: the quality and results of an election. The quality of elections is an indispensable prerequisite for the new authorities to become legitimate players in the political arena. The other factor is results. Free elections are the basic prerequisite for the results to reflect the voters’ preferences. Only then will a coalition be formed, and we will see which politicians will be partners.”
“Maybe NATO and the EU have adopted a wait-and-see attitude, not to make sure that the elections are democratic but to be able to decide later on a proper relationship with Kyiv?”
“As far as I remember, the NATO secretary-general visited Kyiv with an offer of membership, but this offer was turned down for a number of reasons, so let’s not talk about NATO.
“As for the European Union, do not think that Brussels has hidden a gift for Ukraine under the table, a carrot of sorts, to be presented to Ukraine if the election results are good. This carrot does not exist. On the other hand, do not think that the election results will have no bearing on the integration process. Every player, every personality must be recognized as a legitimate player.
“We will study what was said during the election campaign and will be closely watching the new government’s declarations and those who will be making them. There is no carrot. But, naturally, the results will be considered as an important factor in planning the future. Next year the EU is going to review its Neighborhood Policy concerning the countries that border on it and are not its members. So we are now at a stage that determines a new reality and a new content of policies. It is a basket into which you can put very many or very few things. This is the dilemma.”
“The impression is that the world community has adopted a very favorable attitude to the current Ukrainian leadership. So why are so many Ukrainians disappointed with it?”
“Disappointment is typical of any revolution. The flame of revolution has gone out, and you cannot maintain a high temperature all the time. Sooner or later people will abandon the revolutionary squares and study the ‘dossiers’ of new politicians, size up the revolution’s achievements, and see whether life has become worse or better. It is impossible to change the psyche of individuals who, for example, see inflation growing and the economy declining. This state of affairs is unfavorable for the authorities.
“But for which authorities? Whoever assumed responsibility has no right to complain. Humans will be humans: they can be courageous enough to take to the Maidan and stand there for a month, but they expect good governance afterwards. I think the Ukrainian people are still waiting and looking patiently at what is going on. But this is the last attempt for politicians. The government is sure to face serious challenges right after the elections.”
“Which challenge will be the first to be addressed? Do you have any worries about the post- election situation in Ukraine?”
“I see nothing dramatic in what is going on. The quality and results of the elections will ensure the formation of a majority. My only worry is that a majority without a program may be formed. I hope they don’t form a purely numerical majority of 226 deputies without a concrete plan of action. There should be a strong, reform-oriented cabinet. You have already changed a lot in your country. In addition to democracy, you also need changes in the taxation system and the market economy setup. To this end, you should have a coalition based on a majority. My chief worry is whether the parties will be able to reach compromises.”
“In a recent interview you said that Viktor Yushchenko is sort of Ukraine’s trade mark and flag. Will this ‘brand name’ bring dividends?”
“I was very cautious in drawing this parallel. Trade marks as such do not bring dividends. Take a bottle of Coca Cola. You agree that it is a brand name. This raises a different question: is the bottle empty or full? It is not enough just to be a trade mark. It is more important how the owners use this brand name. In this case, Ukrainians themselves are the owners.
“Although Yushchenko supports only one political party, he must be ‘used’ by all kinds of political forces. Different politicians are aware that it will be very difficult to win international trust without Yushchenko. You must be very happy to have a person like Viktor Yushchenko because he and CNN created this trade mark. This is your asset.”
“You said that international trust is possible only thanks to Viktor Yushchenko. Does this mean that if the ‘non-Orange’ forces come to power, the democratic world will turn its back on Ukraine?”
“Imagine Mr. X, who has nothing to do with the Orange Revolution. He forms a cabinet. What will be the first question to him? The first question is: is there any cooperation between the cabinet and the president? If some kind of cooperation exists, there will be no more questions. Please work, and then we will see the results of Mr. X’s performance.
The world community is also likely to ask Mr. X: what is your policy, what would you like to do? We will react afterwards. It is common knowledge that any politician who wants to be effective cannot achieve efficiency without taking the European factor into account. That is the difference between now and last year.
Nobody is saying that Russia is an alternative to the European Union. Nobody admits any alternative to the EU. Some people say there is a Putin Party, but this is a joke. How many votes will they poll?-maybe 10,000 votes in a 48 million-strong country. Various European institutions are feeling good in Ukraine, dealing with all kinds of political parties. I am a member of an admittedly post- communist Polish party. We were a very small political force after the triumph of Solidarity. My party had no misgivings about the European Union. But this question arose before the government of which I was also a member, which eventually led to Poland’s membership in the EU.
So it is important for us to know what Moroz, Yanukovych, Lytvyn, and others are saying. If we speak about real prospects of membership, we should speak in terms of decades, not years. You will have two more elections during this time span. What results will there be in ten years? This is anyone’s guess. But, naturally, we should try to foresee the situation.”
