Medvedev nominates Putin and he reciprocates. Thunderous applause

On Monday, Russia’s ruling party, United Russia’s convention, made headlines in the world’s leading media after Vladimir Putin suggested that Dmitry Medvedev head United Russia’s list, and after Medvedev endorsed Putin’s presidential candidacy for the next year’s campaign. Experts across the world are pondering this Russian power tandem rotation. According to eyewitness reports, Putin’s answer in affirmative to his third presidency was followed by thunderous applause at the Palace of Sports in Luzhniki, Moscow. Novaya Gazeta says the journalists at the press center also clapped their hands.

Here the similarities are apparent, with Russian and foreign journalists referring to Brezhnev’s rule marked by stagnation, even referring to Stalin’s regime. Echo of Moscow Radio quotes The Times as saying that Putinism is a new kind of Stalinism. Novaya Gazeta has been publishing cartoons of Russia’s current leading political figures, among them Sergei Ivanov, German O. Gref, Valentina Matviyenko, and of course Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev, showing the way they will look in 2024, wizened but with chestfuls of medals.

However, there are more important issues on the [Russian] agenda: another wave of the world financial crisis, dropping oil prices, plummeting Russian ruble (Echo of Moscow reported a couple of days ago that its exchange rate is down by 17 percent), and no hope for any upgrading. Instead, an almost certain preservation of the swamp of Russia’s daily life (e.g., http://www.gazeta.ru/).

In contrast, the participants in the United Russia convention (which party is described by Russia’s liberals as a pack of crooks and thieves) appear to live in a different world. Novaya Gazeta quotes Krasnodar Krai Governor Aleksandr Tkachev as saying in his blog: “I believe that today, during this convention, Dmitry Anatolievich [Medvedev] and Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin] made and announced the right decision… Will soon add my photos and videos pertaining to this historic event. I will describe my own feelings, probably as something like a pleasant shock… As all other delegates, I felt excited before the convention was called to order, for its resolutions would have an impact on the whole country… But once the President and the Prime Minister stepped in, I was relieved to realize the tandem was still there. What happened next was a historical sensation.”

“The president will lead United Russia to the State Duma and Putin will be presidential candidate. Was this something to be expected? When the president made the statement, everyone was stunned (I think the same was true of the political opponents). Now this party has two charismatic figures.”

Another segment of bloggers still to be placed under control by Russian authorities is in what is best described as a packing mood: “Time to get the hell out of here!”

Few if any sober-minded individuals had expected events to take a different course (with many reiterating that Vladimir Putin has been ruling Russia for the past 11 years), yet the incumbent prime minister’s statement that he will run for president left many stunned. Some foreign media have responded that nothing less could have served as proof of the failure of democracy in post-Soviet Russia; that Medvedev’s four-year pre-sidency was just a show staged to mislead the international community and turn the reset policy into a farce, so that now other countries can build their relationships with Russia proceeding from its true visage.

How many authoritarian-Kremlin-architected/engineered-tragedies will it take Europe and the United States to discern this true visage and plan their line of conduct? What is this? Being unable to learn from one’s experience? Political pragmatism? Let’s face it, were there any reasons to believe the Russian regime was liberalizing? Any systemic reforms carried out under President Medvedev? Freedom of speech? De-Stalinization program? Wasn’t this defeat of democracy clearly apparent previously (e.g., Magnitsky case under Medvedev, let alone Khodorkovsky; let alone dispersing opposition rallies)?

Putin’s second decade in power. Boris Akunin, when asked by Echo of Moscow whether anything would change in Russia with Putin back as President (rather than operating as an eminence grise behind the scenes), replied: “I think much has changed. After September 24, 2011, Russia has been destined to turn from an authoritarian regime (which it has been for almost 12 years) into a lasting dictatorship. The most amazing thing is the attitude of the populace to this crucial historical boundary line; they sigh and accept it. Nothing else. Now they will have ample time — years, maybe decades — to think all this over. I’m afraid that this neo-Brezhnev epoch will end up with even more dramatic consequences than back in 1991. My friends, congratulations on the new realities!”

UKRAINE’S EXPECTATIONS

Ukraine should probably be also congratulated on these new realities. What will happen to this country? On the date of United Russia’s convention, President Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine arrived at his Russian counterpart’s suburban residence in Zavidovo, right after lunch. There he was greeted by Russia’s two leaders. Needless to say, Yanukovych’s visit rated second compared to the convention that morning for the media, even though some sensational outcome was expected.

Prior to his visit to Moscow, President Viktor Yanukovych attended the festivities commemorating the millennium of St. Sophia’s Cathedral in Kyiv, reaffirming enlightenment, resistance to the Wild Steppe, nation-state-building, political wisdom, Ukraine’s involvement in the European integration process, and other tenets upheld by the late Dr. Serhii Krymsky (regular contributor to The Day). For regular readers, the importance of St. Sophia’s Cathedral to Ukraine doesn’t have to be reaffirmed. President Yanukovych visited this cathedral and said later: “Under the high vaults of this house of God, facing the Virgin Mary and the images of the Disciples of Jesus Christ, I felt as though a great burden were falling off my heart; I felt rid of daily routine; I could see realities in a different light.”

Needless to say, a ranking official has to adopt a publicly favorable stance, just as the above statement must have been composed by the president’s speechwriters. It is also possible that Viktor Yanukovych is starting to see the light, considering the complicated situation with the Ukrainian political leadership these days. He may be getting a deeper insight into what is actually going on in Ukraine.

Below, The Day’s experts comment on the possibility of Russia’s ruling tandem’s change and its consequences for the post-Soviet countries in general, and Ukraine in particular.

BEST SCENARIO FOR RUSSIA?

Lilia SHEVTSOVA, political analyst, senior fellow, Moscow Carnegie Center:

“I believe no analysts in Moscow or abroad have had any doubts about Putin retaining his authority, even after moving from the Kremlin to another residence. As head of government, he wouldn’t have time enough to deal with problems concerning daycare centers and road construction, so his return to the Kremlin in 2012 is inevitable, ditto his two presidential terms. Two reasons: (a) the logic of autocracy has it that the political leader retains his post no matter what, and (b) Putin realizes that he will face serious problems if and when he steps down.

“Putin’s decision to run for president means his formal return to the presidency, and that he will remain head of state for a long time. This also means inevitable stagnation that will get from bad to worse. In fact, the process has begun, with both the political system and society degrading. We are quickening our pace on the road leading to a systemic crisis. Strange as it may seem, Putin’s presidency, Putinism, could be the best scenario for Russia in the absence of positive alternatives. Medvedev’s second term of office would mean preserving illusions and hopes that this [political] system can be changed for the better, that those in power really care about the people. Putin’s coming to power reads: ‘Don’t expect anything [good] from the powers that be!’”

PUTIN’S STABILITY SPELLS STAGNATION

Volker WEICHSEL, editor, journal Osteuropa, Germany:

“It has been clear from the outset of the presidential campaign that there is actually no choice, and the show we recently watched is proof that the Russian elite wants to stay in power, leaving no option for the people. This is further evidence that there is no democracy in Russia, that there is only a simulation of it. The fact that Putin remains popular doesn’t mean that he is the man the people would have elected, had they had a choice. His program is the same he offered when he was president and then prime minister. Nothing has actually changed in Russia over the past 12 years, except that its dependence on oil has increased while he [Putin. — Ed.] and Medvedev declared their intention of building a modern economy. Corruption has been on an upward curve over the past 10 years. It doesn’t matter who is the head of state or government; results are the important thing. Proceeding from them, it is necessary to vote for different people, but this is impossible because the administrative authorities and the president’s party have made all decisions.

“Putin’s coming to power will have an impact on Russia’s politics, to the effect that there will be no changes whatsoever. Russia’s biggest problem is its infrastructure which is getting from bad to worse. There have been no solutions to this problem over the past 12 years, and there will be none. There will be no changes without political changes, without the freedom of discussion, without true reforms, because technical upgrading won’t help. The situation keeps worsening, what with the unstable factor of gas prices that will continue to increase.

“Putin’s presidency won’t affect the relations between Russia and the EU, simply because they are deadlocked. Russia’s WTO membership has been debated for more than five years. No changes there. The so-called four common spaces of freedom and cooperation keep being discussed, to no obvious avail. Russia’s stability, Putin’s major campaign slogan, actually means stagnation. The relations between Russia and the EU won’t change, while increasingly focusing on the energy policy. There won’t be any progress in any other spheres.”

RUSSIA’S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IS DETERMINED BY INTRICATE LOBBY ARRANGEMENTS

Vitalii PORTNIKOV, journalist:

“Putin remains the leader of the ruling party and Prime Minister of Russia while actually playing the key role in the Russian political leadership. From this standpoint, his decision to run for pre-sident is quite logical, considering that he has the constitutional right to do just that. The important thing under the circumstances is not Putin becoming once again president of Russia, but Dmitry Medvedev becoming prime minister, considering the less important political part he has played. There is a tweet by Aleksandr Voloshin, former head of the presidential administration, one of the Kremlin’s eminences grises, that reads: ‘Both will be presidents.’ Becoming head of state or head of government in Russia isn’t something done as decided by someone, be it Putin or Medvedev, but by intricate lobby arrangements, made by a group of persons who have ruled Russia since Boris Yeltsin’s pre-sidency. This group put forth Vladimir Putin as the next president after Yeltsin stepped down on December 31, 1999. This group then decided that Putin wouldn’t run for president for the third time after the end of his second term of office, and finally they decided that it was time to return Putin to the Kremlin and make Medvedev Prime Minister of Russia. Therefore, there is no likelihood of political change because Russia’s is a rigid, immobile clannish system. There have been actually no cadre changes since the late 1990s. I think that all allegations about possible changes in Russia’s politics, due to changes in government, must come from people who are simply unaware of political realities.

“As regards possible changes in the relations between Russia and other post-Soviet countries, Putin has been playing the key role in these relations over the past [12] years. All the ill-disguised maneuvers performed by clumsy politicians (like President Yanukovych of Ukraine and President Lukashenka of Belarus) relied on the alleged differences between Putin and Medvedev, but there were none, simply because both belong to the same group.”