Merkel provokes aggressor to hugging

Practically several days ago mass media reported that the world leaders call to ignore Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 6 during the festivities dedicated to the 70th anniversary of the landing of the Allied Forces in Normandy. US President Barack Obama and Elizabeth II stated that they don’t want to appear on the same photograph with Putin. Mass media were actively discussing what the language of the festive dinner would be. However, some leaders of EU countries are going to refrain from total ignoring of Putin because of his aggression against Ukraine. At first it was reported that British Prime Minister David Cameron is going to lead negotiations with Putin on the French land. Later the spokesperson of German government Steffen Seibert said that it would not be a problem for Angela Merkel to sit next to Vladimir Putin during the Normandy festivities. And a few days ago the chancellor stated about her intention to hold negotiations with President Vladimir Putin during this event. Dpa reports that the chancellor noted that she would talk to the Russian president “the way she does on the phone.” On the same day, while receiving the Georgian prime minister in Berlin, she stated that the accession of Georgia to NATO would not be on the agenda at the Wales Summit. As is known, at NATO summit in 2008 namely Germany blocked receiving the MAP by Ukraine and Georgia. And today it is apparent that Russia took it as a signal for annexation of 20 percent of Georgian territory, and this year – annexation of the Crimea in Ukraine.

COMMENTARIES

“THE WORLD MAY INTERPRET THIS AS OPENING OF THE DOOR TO THE WESTERN CLUB FOR PUTIN!”

Lilia SHEVTSOVA, leading research fellow at Moscow-based Carnegie Center:

“I have an exclusively negative attitude to the fact that Merkel is ready to sit next to Putin. We know that all leaders that are going to attend the events dedicated to the 70th anniversary of landing of the Allied Forces in Normandy want to get as far from Vladimir Putin as possible, because he has become in the world politics an embodiment of leadership which should be avoided, if not an absolute evil. He is a leader with whom nobody wants to shake hands.

“And in this situation Merkel’s statement that she is ready to sit next to Putin in spite of the alphabet not only saves the situation for Hollande and finds a ‘politically’ correct way out for the French, but it also saves Vladimir Putin’s reputation. Being a leader of the second most powerful country of the Western world which should embody civilized liberal values in its policy, with this symbolic gesture again legitimizes Putin in the world politics and brings him back to the circle of the Western leaders and Western state. As soon as Merkel sits down next to Putin, they will have to follow the rules of diplomatic etiquette. It is not excluded that Putin will bring Merkel to the test of a hug and a kiss – he has already done this. The world may interpret this as opening of the door for bringing Putin back to the Western club! Pseudo-isolation of Russia for its behavior concerning Ukraine will fall to pieces.

“As for the need to talk to Putin, this is actually a justification of the symbolic gesture on bringing Putin back to the world of Western leaders. They don’t need to isolate Putin, this would be dangerous not to talk to him at all, but they can find other, non-symbolical telephone channels of communication where they can discuss whatever they like. And Merkel has actually preserved this contact. In fact, she often discusses various problems with Putin, which probably help the Western world to reach some mutual understanding with the Kremlin.

“But to talk, discuss, and lead a dialog, there is no need to make symbolical gestures, which may be perceived (I underline this!) as a justification, connivance, and forgiving.

“As for the statement Merkel made at the meeting with Georgian prime minister that the question of Georgia’s accession to NATO would not be on the agenda of the Alliance Summit in Wales, there is nothing surprising or unexpected about it. Merkel continues to carry out the policy which she led before 2008 and which was reflected at the meeting in Bucharest, when Germans torpedoed the accession of Georgia and Ukraine to MAP, which actually became a carte blanche for the Kremlin to finish the annexation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. There is nothing else you can expect from Germany. It continues its Ostpolitik, from which the German leaders have not been able to get out yet. It would be fair to note that both Merkel and Steinmeier apparently feel uncomfortable within the framework of the policy which is perceived as connivance regarding the Kremlin, they are looking for a way to strengthen the critical turn in this politics and to stop the excessive aggression of Putin’s policy. But they cannot find it. In the situation when Russia is turning into one of the main architects of authoritarian international entity together with China, Merkel says to Georgia: leave your hopes, this will be a strategic mistake for Western leaders. They cannot find an approach to new rules of game after Putin destroyed the world order which has existed since 1991.

“This world order was based on imitations, hypocrisy, and hope that Russia would become a full-fledged member of the Western world. It has been clear long ago that even Yeltsin’s Russia was not an element of the Western world and, on the whole, it was not integrated in the Western world, because a different system emerged in Russia. Maybe I will say a sacramental phrase, but thank God this world of simulation does not exist anymore. But a new world has emerged which in a sense envisages that some of its members don’t follow the rules of the game. This is the world where the system of international legal obligations is destroyed, and the West cannot find a key for understanding this and decides either to get abstracted from this world, like Obama is doing (and he confirmed this at his speech in West-Point), or tries to preserve a status quo which does not exist, like Merkel is doing. And this means that this generation of Western leaders is not able either to ponder the tenseness of the challenges, or to even try to think about establishing new rules of the game which would prevent the world from slipping down to unpredictability, including the nuclear unpredictability.”

“MERKEL SIMPLY SHOULD HAVE SENT A SIGNAL THAT THE TERM OF NEGOTIATIONS AND DIPLOMATIC DECISIONS IS COMING TO AN END”

Andreas UMLAND, Ph. D. in History, Ph.D. in Politics, assistant professor of the Department of Political Sciences at Kyiv Mohyla Academy:

“I see this statement made by Merkel as a desire to find a decision without undermining all diplomatic ties and use the opportunity of this private, semiofficial meeting to probably come to some agreement.

“As for the efficiency of such meeting after Merkel admitted that Putin lives in a different reality, she probably wants to talk to Putin tete-a-tete about reality. I don’t know what they are going to discuss, but this is apparently a desire to come to certain coordination of positions. Probably they will be discussing sanctions. The thing is when sanctions begin, any diplomacy will become more complicated, and apparently the West wants to lead the dialog with Russia with the help of the threat of using sanctions and not to the last phase.

“Now much depends on how this dialog will be led. If this will be again a discussion of good intentions, it will apparently lead to nothing. On the other hand, maybe Merkel simply should have sent a signal that the term of negotiations and diplomatic decisions is coming to an end.”

Hasn’t Merkel sent a signal to Russia by stating at a meeting with Georgian Prime Minister Iraklii Garibashvili that accession of Georgia to the Alliance would not be on the agenda of NATO summit in Wales? For as a result of Germany’s blocking of giving MAP to Georgia and Ukraine at the Bucharest summit in 2008 Russia annexed 20 percent of Georgian territory in August that year.

“I think it’s a wrong signal, too. I have previously criticized Merkel for her decision in 2008.”