Miller’s Visit: Demonstration Of Continuity
The flying visit of Polish Prime Minister Leszek Miller could be appraised from more than one point of view. First, the new Warsaw government is clearly determined to show Kyiv that the new government is continuing its predecessor’s policies toward Ukraine. Warsaw seems to have succeeded in this, reassuring Kyiv it will continue to defend Ukrainian interests in the West. Secondly, Poland wants to find out the latest situation with the restoration of Lviv’s Polish Cwentarz Orlat (Cemetery of the Young Eagles), for the mixed reaction of the official authorities, the public, and the press of the two sides clearly runs counter to our proclaimed strategic partnership. Thirdly, still to be clarified are the questions of pipelines: one to carry gas bypassing Ukraine and the other to carry oil from Odesa to Gdansk. Finally, it is always good to recall that it is difficult to form a partnership without taking some concrete economic steps.
After meeting President Leonid Kuchma and Prime Minister Anatoly Kinakh, Mr. Miller noted that Poland supports Ukraine’s efforts to integrate with Europe, in particular, to gain EU associate member status (Minister of Foreign Affairs Anatoly Zlenko hopes status will be granted in 2004).
The Polish government head pointed out several times that Ukraine is a strong partner not only for Poland but also in time for the European Union to which Poland hopes to be admitted in 2004. In principle, Mr. Miller said nothing new here. Warsaw must have just thought it necessary to put the record straight that a clear warming of relations between Poland and Russia and Polish attempts to speed up EU membership negotiations do not mean rejecting what has been achieved with Ukraine.
Mr. Miller said we must do our best to close the Ukrainian-Polish border to drug traffickers, arms smugglers, and illegal migrants while opening it to people with good intentions. Poland has not yet revealed its policy toward the migration of those seeking jobs. On the other hand, it is already clear that Poland will have to impose visa requirements on Ukrainians, and the Polish press reported after Mr. Miller’s visit that this could happen in the second half of 2003.
As for the bypass gas pipeline, on the one hand, Warsaw promises to make a decision only after Russia’s Gazprom officially announces whether or not this pipeline will be built and only after taking into account the Ukrainian position. Mr. Kinakh promised Mr. Miller that Ukraine would in turn stubbornly defend its interests. But it is obvious that the matter is being decided neither in Kyiv nor in Warsaw. On the other hand, Moscow also seems to have a problem: economically the new gas pipeline can turn out just a flash in the pan, and politically Moscow does not want to lose an instrument of pressure on Kyiv.
Yet, after the US had shown a clear interest in the Ukrainian export route of Caspian oil, Poland also displayed signs of interest. Premier Miller said in Kyiv that the Polish government would welcome the participation of Polish companies in the would be consortium and that this was “an unambiguous signal for the Polish Ministry of the Economy and all enterprises to intensify their activities in this direction if they want to take part in the project.” By all accounts, this will be one of the key items to be discussed by the Ukrainian-Polish Economic Commission in early March in one of the border regions. This could truly become the first step in real partnership provided Kyiv decides by that time what kind of consortium it wants and if the mammoths of international oil business take an interest. The latter, now under US government pressure, should also see some relevant steps from the Ukrainian side.
And, finally, consider the Orlat Cemetery. Judging by Polish press comments, the Poles see it as the most painful problem in our bilateral relations. As was announced during Mr. Miller’s visit, the cemetery is to be inaugurated on February 22 in the presence of both countries’ presidents. But, as Gazeta Wyborcza writes, Warsaw thinks it inadmissible to change tombstone captions, as the Ukrainian side suggests. The newspaper claims that Presidents Kuchma and Kwasniewski will soon discuss this issue by telephone. The Ukrainians and Poles might manage to turn this page without unduly hurting feelings — otherwise there can be no confidence at all, and all the declarations of the heads of states and governments will remain declarations unless confidence is built.
