A minimum task

The incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko has repeatedly declared that Ukrainians constitute a unique nation, even though this uniqueness is paradoxical. On the one hand, this uniqueness is lamentable, considering that we kept lashing out at the trite Tymoshenko-Yanukovych presidential candidate duet while casting our ballots to help them vie in the runoff.

On the other hand, despite the financial crisis, political disillusionment, the cold weather with black ice and snowstorms, the Ukrainian electorate demonstrated a high degree of public responsibility by visiting the polling stations: runoff statistics indicate 69 percent of turnout, compared to 66.7 percent in the first round, although this percentage is smaller than that registered during the previous presidential campaign. Back in 2004, 74.92 percent Ukrainians cast their ballots, compared to 73.80 percent in 1999.

Another aspect about this year’s presidential elections is that the runoff registered a noticeably higher number of voters who showed both candidates the red card. Whereas the Jan. 17, 2009, ballot’s vote-for-none box was checked by 2.20 percent voters, 4.42 percent did so The Day before yesterday. The Day will broach this subject in collaboration with its experts after the campaign passions become history.

Also, there is this interesting statistic concerning the votes that provided reliable support in the first round, but then made the presidential candidates Tihipko, Yatseniuk, and Yushchenko step down. Arsenii Yatseniuk and Viktor Yushchenko repeatedly declared that they would cast I-vote-against-all ballots in the runoff. Suppose we analyze the results of the 2004 presidential campaign before we get down to figuring out the chances of the current campaign’s two leaders. Back in 2004 the leaders were Yanukovych and Yushchenko. The second round showed that Yanukovych was ahead of Yushchenko by 2.85 percent. And then the international community was informed about an election fraud, considering that exit polls indicated Yushchenko’s victory (with about the same margin percentage). The end result was the Orange Revolution and the third round won by Yushchenko (getting ahead of Yanukovych by 7.8 percent).

The current situation is the exact opposite, with all five exit polls pointing to Yanukovych’s victory (he is ahead of Yulia Tymoshenko by 4.5 percent), with the Central Election Commission showing two percent, having processed over 90 percent of the ballots.

The Party of Regions is celebrating its victory, although Ukrainian news agencies came up with headlines like “Yanukovych Jumps the Gun Greeting Ukrainians with Himself” after the PR headquarters launched a commercial with a grinning Yanukovych saying “I congratulate all of you and the entire Ukrainian people on the election victory.”

Tymoshenko’s campaign headquarters watched Yanukovych’s address and joked about making premature decisions, that back in 2004, Vladimir Putin hastened to greet the PR leader, and then the generally known outcome.

Tymoshenko is determined to win, come what may. She thus commented on exit poll results: “The published results are mere sociology, so it would be premature to make any conlusions now, for there is the factor of statistical error. Everything will depend on our team’s local performance. I want everyone who is watching and hearing me to struggle for every ballot, every vote, for every vote may well determine the destiny of our country!”

As for the bona fide status of the electoral process, last night CIS-EMO experts said there were separate minor violations registered during the runoff. They had no effect on the overall election results.

The Central Election Commission will have the final say whereupon we can expect President Yanukovych/Tymoshenko to make the next step. Even at this stage it is safe to assume that neither presidential candidate will collect 50 percent of votes. This means that whoever takes over Yushchenko’s presidency will have to make every effort to become the leader of entire Ukraine, rather than half of it.