Missed chances

Ukraine failed to make full use of the opportunities that it had after the proclamation of independence and the positive results of the referendum on Dec. 1, 1991. Nor have lessons been learned from that period or previous setbacks that led to dramatic consequences — the loss of independence. This is the conclusion of the international roundtable “Moving Forward, Looking Back” held in Kyiv to mark the 15th anniversary of Ukrainian independence.

The forum was jointly organized by the embassies of Poland and Canada. These states were the first to recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty the day after independence was proclaimed in 1991. The Canadian side took the opportunity to offer its own recipe for protecting national interests and economic prosperity.

CORRECTING ABNORMALITIES

The fact that Ukraine did not have statehood 15 years ago was an abnormality. This is the opinion of Prof. Orest Subtelny, a well-known historian. “Ukraine had one of the highest levels of education, it was a highly-developed country with rich mineral resources, but it did not have even a single political instrument of its own state. This abnormality would be corrected sooner or later. When independence came to Ukraine, this was a correction that was destined to occur,” the Canadian historian said.

At the same time, Subtelny noted that the concept of independence was tied to economic difficulties. Ukraine’s separation from Russia was extremely painful and difficult. “We must admit that Ukraine succeeded in this because it broke away and established its own identity, while avoiding any major antagonisms. Ukraine had problems with its inherited nuclear weapons; there were also problems with the Crimea and borders. There were possibilities for the emergence of serious consequences, but this did not happen, which does credit to the top leadership of the time,” Subtelny stressed.

In this scholar’s opinion, Ukraine’s next success was the creation of its own elite. In the past few centuries, most ambitious and talented Ukrainians tried to carve out a career outside the country, for example, in Moscow or Saint Petersburg, Vienna or Warsaw. Naturally, all this hindered self-rule. Now the Ukrainian elites are staying in Ukraine, which is of paramount importance for the country’s development.

According to the Canadian historian, the downside is the way the elites, and their views and mentality, are formed. It will be a long time before our elites become functional: this is partly the reason behind the rather slow changes in Ukraine.

But changes can take place faster through globalization, when the business elite sees that doing business in the outside world differs from what is going on inside the country. Subtelny pins hope particularly on young people. They are less isolated and are becoming part of global society. Therefore, changes in Ukraine should occur under external pressure by means of globalization and inside the country, through the impact of a civil society, especially young people, the Canadian scholar concluded.

CHANCES AND DISAPPOINTMENTS

There is great untapped potential in the 15-year-old Polish-Ukrainian partnership. The young Ukrainian democracy has failed to capitalize on all its opportunities, and there could have been greater successes, considering the enormous scope for Ukrainian-Polish relations, Polish Ambassador to Ukraine Jacek Kluczkowski said during the roundtable. He noted that one of the greatest gains of the Ukrainian people is that Ukraine is now an independent and important European country. Poland and Ukraine succeeded in building good-neighborly relations with foreign countries and develop economic and other contacts among regional authorities.

The Polish ambassador also noted that the Ukrainian people’s optimism did not last long after the proclamation of independence. The same thing happened after the Orange Revolution in late 2004. Those events lead to the conclusion that proclaiming independence is not just a big holiday or the end of history. This moment brings along realities and disappointments, which not only the Ukrainians but also the Poles encountered. Nevertheless, according to Kluczkowski, this experience can lay the groundwork for greater optimism and be a practical task for the government, elites, and political parties: they should fulfill their pledges.

LESSONS TO BE LEARNED

In the opinion of Yevhen Marchuk, Ukraine could be more effective, especially in the development of its society, statehood, and foreign policy as well as its integration into worldwide and European institutions. He thinks Ukraine is now feeling the unlearned lessons of the past. “A seemingly simple and rhetorical question — should we learn from our past? — has now emerged because, unfortunately, we must admit that there have been not only many successes in the past 15 years but also errors, miscalculations, and missed opportunities,” he noted.

People who aspire to the offices of the president and the prime minister should learn before they assume these posts and know at least a little of what the law and the state is. The president, as the supreme commander-in-chief, should be politically aware of what the Armed Forces are and have at least minimal knowledge of the laws that govern their application.

But the most viable way to gain some indispensable knowledge is to make a thorough study of the history of one’s people so that you know all the battles and the causes of all the defeats: there were not so many defeats, but they were dramatic and led to the loss of Ukrainian statehood. “Unfortunately, these questions, which are theoretical at first glance, are very pressing today.

The national leadership’s miscalculations and failures to seize opportunities is the direct result of this lack of knowledge,” Marchuk noted.

He also thinks it is very important for Ukraine to reach a national consensus on foreign policy as soon as possible. According to Ukraine’s former prime minister, Security Service chief, and defense minister, leaders of serious states always try to act on behalf of the entire country when they are on a foreign visit. “The recent dispute in Ukraine over Viktor Yushchenko’s directives for Viktor Yanukovych’s US visit showed that it will take the president and the prime minister a long time to learn how to act as Ukraine. This is a difficult path for Ukraine’s future, but it is realistic from the viewpoint of democratic and socioeconomic development. One should not be afraid to learn — from one’s own mistakes and simply from historical experience. We are quick learners, and 15 years of independence have shown that, in spite of all the problems, we are still advancing. We could do it better. Let us all try to do our best,” Marchuk concluded.

CANADIAN RECIPE FOR SUCCESS

Canada and Ukraine have a lot in common. Therefore, the Canadian experience of comprehensive and multifaceted thinking is very useful for defending national interests and can be used for the good and prosperity of the Ukrainian people, said Canada’s Ambassador to Ukraine Abina M. Dann. At one time Dann was the press secretary for both the Minister of International Trade and the Secretary of State for External Affairs, and acted as the official departmental spokesperson when the question of recognizing Ukraine’s was being discussed.

In Dann’s view, Ukraine-Canada relations should be regarded not only as two-dimensional but multidimensional. “By way of comparison, Ukraine is Europe’s largest country and Canada is the world’s largest after Russia. We live next to large, powerful neighbors, and this also means vast sales markets. A small population in the two countries, a high level of public education, and the fact that both countries are developing on the basis of domestic resources are other similarities,” Ms. Dann explained.

During the roundtable Ambassador Dann warned that economic development should be planned judiciously. Had the Canadian government not restructured the economy, Canada might have become a Third World country. It took 7 to 10 years to restructure the economy, and now goods produced from national sources account for 75 percent of the GDP.

“I hope to see Ukraine as a member of the WTO. We have also gone through this, including 7 to 10 years of painful transformations, but now we feel better,” the Canadian ambassador noted. She expressed the hope that Ukraine will be able to become a mighty country like Canada in 15-20 years’ time. To achieve this, we should be flexible and use Canada’s experience, work on creating a multifaceted economy, make adjustments, and build economic and social structures without waiting for the Ukrainian economy to adapt to the world economy. According to Ambassador Dann, Canada can be Ukraine’s global partner and would like Ukraine to join NATO, i.e., to be part of the network that will promote Ukraine’s security.

COMMENTARY

Jacek KLUCZKOWSKI, Ambassador of Poland to Ukraine:

“There are always challenges as well as positive points in the historical process. First of all, it was very important for us that our difficult, shared history did not hinder the establishment of friendly relations between Poland and Ukraine. This is a great success, especially since the communists in Poland did their best to keep our nations in conflict. It is also apparently a success that we opened the border, that we are creating checkpoints and opening new transport routes. At the same time, I am aware of far greater expectations from both the Ukrainian and the Polish sides.

“What I would call a downside is that our societies have little knowledge of one another. We have no joint media projects. We do very little in the field of culture. There is also a project that we have been talking about since 1995 — the construction of a pipeline from Odesa to Gdansk, Poland, via Brody. This is a very difficult problem and a huge investment. But we’ve been talking for 10 years and haven’t started any real cooperation. This must be a sign of certain mistrust. To carry out this project we should resolve a lot of technical problems, but I think our partnership, neighborhood, and cooperation will be incomplete without this energy component.

“Ukraine will never return to the Soviet Union. I do not think it’s possible for a communist dictatorship to be restored in Ukraine. Even the countries that are establishing more authoritarian regimes are not going to return to communism. I see no possibility of authoritarianism being revived in Ukraine: what you have is a normal political debate. And I see that there are different points of view. This should be taken into account and reckoned with.”

Abina M. DANN, Ambassador of Canada to Ukraine:

“Gaining independence is Ukraine’s main achievement, even though the national leaders were taking a risk in 1991. Another major achievement is the determination of the Ukrainian people, who stood their ground in 2004 and refused to veer off the course of democratic progress. Although the Ukrainian people were disappointed after the events of 2004, they still showed that they have no fear and will not put up with certain things. I would not like to speak about negative trends. It is always easy to criticize from the sidelines. I see a young democracy being formed in Ukraine — with major conflicts and tensions between groups that wield power and have different viewpoints. In my opinion, there is an inadequate level of public participation in debates. We should be wary of tendencies that can undermine democratic institutions. It does not take much time to get used to democratic debates. In my view, the Ukrainians cannot imagine how confused and imperfect democracy can be. However, I see more positive trends than negative ones. Ukraine is now rife with a power struggle, but it will end in due course.”

Bohdan HAWRYLYSZYN, economist, former advisor to the president and prime minister of Ukraine:

“Ukraine already exists as a state, although not exactly an independent one. This is the biggest achievement. What I believe is another achievement is the introduction of the Ukrainian language into secondary and higher education. The state must have an official language that was once spoken by the ethnic majority. Three-quarters of the population used to speak the Ukrainian language. Ukraine is well-known in the world. This is both good and bad. That we no longer have excess illusions is also an achievement of sorts.

“As for problems, I would point to the absence of genuine parties in Ukraine — parties that have a program of actions, rather than a program for elections, and which consistently follow this program. If there were true parties, it would be easy to form a coalition of those whose action programs coincide. Another problem is that politics and business are too intertwined in Ukraine. There are too many businessmen in politics. They really find it difficult to be loyal citizens and work for the state’s benefit when their personal interests so easily affect politics.

“Above all, we must thank the Orange Revolution for the fact that Ukraine is well known in the world. We were the focus of global attention. I do not believe that we can revert to a despotic regime. It takes a very long time to restructure a state, and the presence of people of different languages and cultures is not an obstacle. The main thing is for the citizens of this state to feel that they are the real masters of their destiny, as people did during the Orange Revolution, when they believed in changes and the possibility of influencing them. It takes genuine political reforms to establish proper institutions. Switzerland, with three official languages and one regional, is often cited as a showpiece. But the point is that every community or region in that country decides on its own what it should do. So I’d like to emphasize that only wise political institutions can form a true nation.

“I once wrote that the Soviet Union would disintegrate. I was absolutely sure of this at the time. I am equally certain today that Ukraine will be in an entirely different situation in 15 years’ time. Of course, there is a power struggle going on between the president and the prime minister. I cannot say what will happen in Ukraine in a year or two because this depends on specific events, personalities, and situations. But I am convinced about what will happen in 15 years because I am taking into account the fundamental motive forces of society.”

Nestor GAYOWSKY, Canada’s first temporary Charge d’Affaires in Ukraine:

“I do not think there can be any doubts about Ukraine’s achievements in the 15 years of independence. There were psychological difficulties because you did not have a state. The bureaucrats had to learn. The Soviet Union left a very strong imprint, so your country had to overcome very serious difficulties. There are problems in certain fields, such as deliveries of oil, gas, and other energy resources. But I think Ukraine is successfully tackling these problems. This also applies to other spheres. As for the judicial and law-enforcement systems, reforms are seriously lagging behind the required standards. Something should be done to solve the problems in these sectors, and this should be done fairly and openly.

“I believe in transparency. I have been a Canadian civil servant for 36 years and can say that politicians and bureaucrats are afraid of transparency. I would also like to direct attention to the immunity that your members of parliament have. This is clearly a Soviet-era instrument. Ukraine’s parliamentarians only need the immunity that exists in normal political conditions. An MP should not be afraid of being in parliament. Otherwise, he is an ordinary citizen. On the other hand, there is a strange situation in the Ukrainian parliament: it is almost never clear who will vote for what because votes are very easily bought and sold.

“Given my experience of working in Ukraine and Moscow, I must say that Ukrainians and Russians are independent in their views. It is therefore difficult to control anybody here. But people should learn to work together. Now a few words that may seem harsh to the national democrats, many of whom want to be leaders of small parties. I think they should join the large parties. The national democrats should unite, elect one leader, and set themselves, say, five goals to be achieved for this country’s benefit. They should stop talking and, instead, begin to try to achieve the set objectives.”