Moldovan government resigned

Moldovan president Nicolae Timofti accepted resignation of Prime Minister Vlad Filat. The government’s resignation came after the collapse of the Alliance for European Integration (AEI) coalition of three center-right parties. The Communists seized the opportunity and tabled a no-confidence motion in the parliament. The motion succeeded, with 54 MPs voting for it, more than the needed 51 votes.

From the outset, the AEI was predicated on opposing the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova. Meanwhile, internal divisions within the coalition grew stronger by the day and came to a head with the no-confidence vote.

Under the Constitution, the president has three days after the prime minister’s resignation in which to begin consultations with the parliamentary factions on designating a candidate for prime minister. However, neither the Constitution nor the law “On Government” says exactly how long these consultations may last. Theoretically, they can be prolonged indefinitely, even going into the fall months. The 45 days countdown begins only after the president presents the prime minister designate to the parliament. The candidate has to form a government and secure parliamentary support during this period. If the governing coalition and the government are not formed in that timeframe, the president should call early elections. After resignation, the government continues to exercise limited administrative functions until the new one is sworn in.

Actually, they have just two options. The first one is to negotiate and re-form the old coalition. The second one is to go for early elections and try then to form a coalition in a new parliament.

Moldova’s European partners, especially Romania, insist on choosing the first option. The Romanian President Traian Basescu noted that the neighboring country’s European integration prospects are in danger. “I express my heartfelt hope that the Alliance for European Integration will stand its ground, because it is very important for Moldova to come as a healthy partner to the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius and be able to initial the free trade agreement with the European Union.” European organizations have not stayed out of the Moldovan crisis, too. Senior EU officials and foreign ministers of several EU countries visited Chisinau recently, advising the alliance to reunite and avoid early elections.

It seems that these exhortations have not had their desired effect. Moreover, the Communists do not want to even talk to the president whom they consider an illegitimate holder of the office.

It is believed that the second option suits the Communists best. Amid the nation’s difficult economic situation, a number of corruption scandals, investigations in official malfeasance and corresponding growth of discontent, left populism, which is the Moldovan Communists’ strength, will bring them extra votes. That is why the Communists are spoiling for a new electoral fight. They cannot wait for the next elections, scheduled for 2015. However, the campaign’s outcome is far from clear. The voters’ discontent does not necessarily translate into support for the Communists. The overall situation was no better before the last elections, but the Reds ended up losing five percent of the vote.

Political analyst Roman MIHAES: “Head of the government should be a person of good repute, a professional lawyer, economist or diplomat. He or she must be in good standing with the nation’s strategic partners the EU and the US. It is desirable for that person to have no party affiliation.”

The Communists would like to use contrast between pro-European and pro-Russian courses, the EU and the Customs Union, as a basis for the coming campaign. They will point out that Moldova, while not coming any closer to the EU, has become embroiled in quarrels with Russia. Accordingly, they will revive the specter of Moldova’s absorption by Romania and, no doubt, accuse the center-right parties of working for that end. More to that, the coalition parties will get accused once again of unwillingness to settle the Transnistrian conflict.

According to Moldovan experts, the situation is not as clear-cut as it seems. While some of them bet on the Communists, Filat’s Liberal Democratic Party still has real chances to increase its parliamentary representation. The outgoing head of government warned at the last Cabinet meeting before the resignation: “Let those who want to drink champagne and hear loud fanfare not consider themselves winners ahead of time. If someone is drinking champagne already, my advice is to postpone the celebration.”

The prime minister and his party are in possession of certain trump cards. Albeit with limited powers, he continues to head the Cabinet and govern the country. Another trump card is the fight against corruption. Without a doubt, Filat and his party will insist that they began to fight this evil, but were prevented from bringing the fight to a logical end. And the third card will be the European course, similarly presented along the following lines: “We wanted to do it and have made great strides, but Moldova will be unable to sign anything in Vilnius in November 2013, because the Communists and their situational allies interfered with our efforts.” Since the last elections, which were held early, too, by the way, support for the pro-European course has increased, so the Liberal Democrats have a strong base.

The state of affairs is well known to Moldovan politicians, and most of them are in no hurry to go to the polls. Both the Socialist Party and the Renaissance Party oppose early elections. They run a real risk of failing to clear the four percent barrier and losing their parliamentary representation. They would gain somewhat should a coalition be formed under a prime minister from the second tier of the political class.

The political analyst Roman Mihaes listed the requirements for such a candidate in the newspaper Moldavskie Vedomosti: “Head of the government should be a person of good repute, a professional lawyer, economist or diplomat. He or she must be in good standing with the nation’s strategic partners the EU and the US. It is desirable for that person to have no party affiliation.” The expert sees as suitable candidates the head of the National Bank Dorin Dragutan and ambassador to the United States Igor Munteanu. Both are well-regarded abroad and are known as technocrats without a clear political orientation.

The expert on constitutional law Corneliu Gurin considers crystal honesty as one of the most important features of the future head of government. However, it would be hard to find such a person that would suit all political forces in Moldova. Moreover, such a figure would be unlikely to be interested in Moldovan politics, according to the expert.

Whether the crisis will end with the formation of a new coalition or with an early election, Moldova’s European advance has been seriously impeded. Even the hypothetical return of the Communists will change little in the country’s foreign policy. They would bring pro-Russian rhetoric and bias towards the Customs Union, but nothing more decisive. The Communists would mostly focus on domestic policy. The same applies to the relations with Ukraine. We will have lots of talk, but few actions, and the issues we have with Moldova will hardly come closer to a solution. Moldovan politicians will have no time for it, not that their Ukrainian counterparts will do any better.

The political turbulence in Moldova will persist until the next elections. It is possible that they will be held early again.