By Viktor ZAMYATIN, The Day
What concrete results the Ukrainian emergency mission headed by Prime Minister
Valery Pustovoitenko achieved in Washington have not been disclosed. What
the United States wants from Ukraine Mr. Pustovoitenko was told by US Secretary
of State Madeleine Albright: all reform efforts made by the government
and people of Ukraine will prove inadequate unless backed up by structural
changes, especially in agriculture and energy.
There have already been reminders this year that Ukraine must immediately
get down to serious structural changes, pursue a transparent privatization
policy in the energy sector (this above all concerns natural gas), put
an end to bureaucratic permissiveness, and adopt a radically new tax code.
Special US Secretary of State advisor Stephen Sestanowich and chairman
of the trade and investment sub-commission at the Kuchma-Gore commission
Jan Kalicki stressed this, as well as the need for a strict control over
credit use, administrative reform and transparency in handling off-budget
funds, during their visits to Kyiv in January. "We want to see real deeds
rather than hear words," said then William Taylor, coordinator of US aid
to the newly independent states.
But even this was not enough for Ukraine to obtain the $195 million
US aid package: now, as the Americans explain, the Ukrainian side has not
yet resolved nine controversial issues with US investors. These must be
finally resolved in favor of the US before February 18, when Ms. Albright
will testify in Congress on Ukraine. Both she and Congress require irrefutable
evidence that things in Ukraine have really changed for the better. Obviously,
only after this will it become possible to say anything about the Kharkiv
initiative and other potential US investments.
The American demands to Ukraine coincide almost completely with those
of the IMF and World Bank with whose representatives the Ukrainian delegation
was bargaining in Washington. Ukraine is unlikely to get new loans unless
it meets the IMF memorandum requirements and ratifies agreements with the
World Bank - and this will not happen, judging by statements made by Verkhovna
Rada Speaker Oleksandr Tkachenko. Accordingly, the budget will not be fulfilled
without resorting to monetary emission and rampant inflation, which is
unlikely to be interpreted overseas as a good sign. Ukraine may not manage
to prove in practice before February 19 that her reforms are making headway
and American investors are held in esteem here, especially knowing that
up to now no kind of investors were in esteem.
Obviously, the IMF will be guided primarily by Washington in deciding
whether or not to continue the EFF program for Ukraine. But, in any case,
they will not be lending us much.






