More terrible than tanks

My last article published by The Day on March 17 suddenly acquired an addi­tio­nal sense. It was about the imperial con­stant of the Rus­sian history, which was revealed during any change of government and elites, even during a temporary dis­so­lution of the empire, like it happened twice in the past century.

I will add only one thing to this: whatever happens above there, the po­wer’s only goal is to hold power. And Russia will never have leadership that would be concerned with the life and development of the nation.

Meanwhile, I did not mean the gossip about Putin’s disappearance, which became viral in the social networks by the time the article was published. For several days, all other topics became insignificant for a considerable number of Russian and Ukrainian politicians, public and cultural figures, and intellectuals. If you take a clo­ser look, they had something in common in the interpretation of the social and political structure of Russia. And I want to tell them the following about this common:

Alright, let’s assume you are correct. Correct in thinking that all the evil lies in propaganda, and it would be possible to turn the Russian people’s way of thinking the other way around in two weeks.

As I understand, dear fellow Russian intellectuals, this is how you see the surrounding plebs, whom you want to manipulate, as it is now manipulated by... by whom, actually? By the same intellectuals as you are. And very often, by your college friends, classmates, people from your circles.

So, are you going to feel confident and proud in such a situation? Will your human and civil dignity grow if these people give way to you? Perestroika was being done in the same way 30 year ago, and later – democracy. You see now what has come of it all.

And you, dear Ukrainian intellectuals, do you think that Russians will be turned into peaceful neighbors, who respect the right of other peoples to independent development? That the TV will work for a while in a right direction, brainwash the population in a different way, give the priority to kindness and political correctness, and you will gain peace and confidence next to such a wonderful neighbor? Just like that?

Of course, this is silly. Especially, being surprised by Putin’s words about his being prepared to use nuclear weapons, which were said in a film about the invasion of Crimea. But the Russian people did not shudder at this, they are proud of this statement. And Putin knew they would be proud: three times before him, the nuclear blackmail was mentioned by top managers of the state corporations, two of whom are also journalists. These were Dmitry Kiselev, Mikhail Leontiev, and Andrey Kostin. All three are Russian intellectuals.

The prediction made in The Day at the beginning of the year is coming true: “A new totalitarian empire, which possesses the weapons of mass destruction, is rising in the east of Europe. Now we can talk of Putin’s doctrine not only in the post-Soviet space, but also in global politics. The essence of this doctrine is the conversion (or capitalization) of nuclear weapons. Blatant racket, nuclear blackmail by Russia, which will support the power and wealth of its ruling elite by extortion, awaits the world.”

The week started with bringing the Northern Fleet, the main carrier of nuclear weapons, into full combat readiness, and with mass unscheduled inspections at the Ministry of Defense of Russia.

I think it is no wonder this coincides not only with the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea, but with the Verkhov­na Rada’s appeal to the UN with a request to bring peacemakers into Donbas. The internationalization of the conflict is directly opposite to the Kremlin’s strategy, its vision of the post-Soviet space not just as the sphere of its influence, but as the territory of states with limited legal personality and defective sovereignty.

It is clear that militaristic chatter and direct application of force attract the most attention. But actions directed at the splitting of the Ukrainian society are also part of the hybrid war.

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The Kremlin’s main task in Ukraine is to isolate the nationally active part of the society, and remain tete-a-tete with the ruling elite and philistines, ready to join the totalitarian masses. The simplest way of isolation is to maintain euphoria in the Ukrai­nian society, the hope for the near collapse of the Russian empire and Putin’s regime. And, of course, national narcissism.

This is the strategy. And the main tactical task for today is to make Kyiv take financial care of Donbas. The local small fry have already addressed Hollande and Merkel with such a request. It will be interesting to compare the size of aid to Donbas criminals (virtually, to their Moscow curators) to expenditure on the treatment of injured Ukrainian soldiers and aid to the families of deceased in that horrible war.

But imposing Donbas on Kyiv is a part of the general tactics, directed at the intensification of the social tension in the       Ukrainian society. At the same time, the desire to establish the opinion that the growing social conflicts are not serious can be frequently found in mass media and Ukrainian segment of social networks. The opinion states they are far less dangerous than Russian tanks.

But they are more terrible, than tanks. One of my Ukrainian friends reasonably stated that the nationally responsible part of the society is no less dangerous for the ruling Ukrainian elite than it is for the Kremlin. I will develop this observation further. As this part of the society increasingly demands reforms, the growth of populist sentiments will be deliberately encouraged. And who will guarantee the preservation of the present power wielders’ status?