Moroz neither for nor against

At 3:15 a.m. yesterday Speaker Tkachenko announced to the most steadfast members of the press, who had waited since noon, that the Kaniv Four had decided to support Yevhen Marchuk. This sensation can best be evaluated not through the prism of the permanent SBU and Presidential Administration meetings or their feverish running in both directions at once. In truth, it had been a hard week.

Yevhen Marchuk, who knows how to talk with journalists, at an Internet press conference responded to the question of what had played a role in the decision, replied, “Time was passing. In addition, we studied the options for resisting the great aggression and methods of provocation used by the President in his struggle against his opponents.

“We also set forth from the consideration that the Kaniv Four uniting behind my candidacy would make it possible to embrace a broader political spectrum than would Oleksandr Moroz or Oleksandr Tkachenko as well as the fact that Moroz's constituency is by no means allergic to my candidacy. I have no problem with either the Red belt or with Lviv or Ternopil. But some of my colleagues do have such problems.”

We spent many long hours going over all the versions and all the scenarios to the deepest possible level of argumentation. Taking into account many factors, including the level and dynamics of popularity ratings and the degree to which our supporters can be influenced. In addition, we very deeply analyzed the runoff. In some respects, purely psychologically and organizationally, it could be more difficult than the first round. In the first election we analyzed over 15 different scenarios. One can understand that there were various positions, but in the final analysis we came to the position, a hard one for any politician, that we had to withdraw our candidacies in favor of another. But, on the other hand, I am certain that this is the beginning of a new Ukrainian politics. In general the Kaniv Four, not for the first time I stress, has emerged as a political phenomenon not generally understood. Most political analysts and observers have concentrated on the single question of selecting a candidate. This was important, but it is not the only thing to have very serious influence on and importance for the political situation in Ukraine. The most important thing is that the Kaniv Four have given a strong impulse to our political life.”

Naturally, the press, being aware of the night's many vicissitudes, was moved to directly ask Yevhen Marchuk, “Don't you have any doubts that Oleksandr Moroz will withdraw his candidacy?”

Yevhen Marchuk replied, “There would have been no statement if there had been no agreement on one Kaniv Four candidate. We agreed that this agreement will come into force (at Oleksandr Moroz's suggestion —T.K.) after the withdrawal of all the candidates making this statement. Oleksandr Tkachenko announced this tonight in the name of the Kaniv Four.”

Meanwhile, those present state that Oleksandr Moroz sat together with the others and did not object. Interfax cites the Socialist Party Political Council Secretary Vitaly Shybko to the effect that Moroz was silent and did not state his own views. Mr. Shybko, himself an authoritative member of Moroz's campaign organization, believes that Bankova Street (Presidential Administration —Ed.) has been working inside the Kaniv Four to neutralize its strongest figure, Oleksandr Moroz.” To his mind, one could add to its efforts those of Oleksandr Tkachenko (?) and “work with Marchuk” (!?).

This led The Day to ask, “When was the honorable Oleksandr Moroz of sound mind and good memory, at night when the agreement was announced, or in the morning, when his advisers told him about Bankova Street having its hands all over Marchuk and Tkachenko?”

One can understand both Tkachenko and Oliynyk, who after October 14 reoriented themselves from Moroz toward Marchuk: the issue could be one of a real chance to have emerge from the first round a representative of the Right Center and one of the Left (Symonenko, for example) without Kuchma. It is apparent that this argument made an impact on Moroz, but only for a short time. Those, who supposed that at the decisive moment we would get yet another Speaker saga, with neither cold calculation nor the intuitive feeling of when it was time to stop, can give themselves credit for accurately predicting candidate Moroz's behavior. The issue is not that he is a poor or weak politician but that today is not the time for him to sit silently or change his mind. A firm and friendly decision today is half the battle. It seems the Kaniv Four has been transformed from 3+1 to 4-1, that is minus Moroz. This is sad. In a country where great politicians can be counted on one's fingers, one major figure could diminish in stature.

At his Internet conference Mr. Marchuk was asked, “What is the greatest threat to Ukraine's national security?”

“Dilettantism, an eruption of dilettantism,” he answered.

Sometimes confirmation can come from an absolutely unexpected source.