Mysterious tragedy, real fear

MINSK — The mysterious tragedy in Minsk gives food for rumor. Many in Belarus and abroad are still wondering about the real objective of whoever engineered the metro station explosion. Was it to politicize the po-pulation, enhance the isolation in Europe’s last dictatorship, or distract public attention from the disastrous state of the Belarusian economy?

Below is a report from Minsk and several expert comments.

Panic is mounting in the Belarusian capital. On the morning after the explosion in the subway station the city was awash with rumors about a new act of terrorism, namely that a packed suburban train had been allegedly blown up near the National Library. All Belarusian news websites went down; 10 minutes la-ter I received phone calls from eight people offering differing information about the site and “scale” of the terrorist act. The militia later refuted this information.

Meanwhile the death toll in the aftermath of the blast at the Oktyabrskaya Metro Station is at 12, with 204 wounded, of whom 26 are in critical condition and 58 people are in serious but stable condition.

There are several theories about what happened and they are being discussed by European and international media. In Minsk, however, there is only one whispered theory: what happened was done by those “upstairs.”

The official explanation is that the explosion was engineered by the opposition, but no Belarusian in the street will ever believe it because the opposition’s hopelessly weak status is common knowledge.

President Aliaksandr Lukashenka called an emergency Cabinet meeting and symbolically made all those in power responsible for what had happened: “There is no excuse. We are the only ones to blame because we have failed to make the necessary security arrangements. We must do our utmost lest the people assume we’re earning our official pay for nothing.” Through with the highfalutin part, Lukashenka got down to business and addressed the chiefs of the secret police and law enforcement agencies: “I have warned you that they will never let us live in peace. I don’t want to remind you of their names, but you will please offer a quick response to this issue.”

After the shock of the metro station blast had somewhat worn off, people started comparing it to the one during the Independence Gala Concert in Minsk (July 3, 2008). An explosive charge concealed in a juice box was then detonated in the heat of festivities, injuring 50 people. Luckily, no one was killed. President Lukashenka was seated several hundred meters from the site of the blast and he immediately plunged into midst of the events, to “keep the situation under control.” On April 11, he also visited the blast site in Minsk, precisely two hours later. He got down to the crater at the metro station, holding his six-year-old son Kolia. What about the reaction to this on the part of President Lukashenka’s Secret Service?

A second suspicious coincidence concerns the explosive charge, considering that most victims were wounded by “nuts, bolts, and nails.”

The third one is that, back in 2008 and this time, Lukashenka was quick to promise to take ruthless measures against all those who had organized the act of terrorism.

The punch line is that no organizers of the terror act of 2008 have been found. Instead, all adult male residents of Belarus were fingerprinted, allegedly as part of a nationwide search for terrorists. Simultaneously, the opposition was exposed to official pressure by way of home/office searches, arrests, and loaded official statements on te-levision.

Experts in Belarus and abroad agree that the Minsk metro station explosion on April 11 would never serve the good of any external political forces, in West or East, even assuming that someone somewhere had meant this explosion as a means of overthrowing Belarus’ regime.

The very next morning the capital’s streets saw their usual level of traffic, rather than thousands of protesters demanding the resignation of the Cabinet or head of state. No one has seriously considered the “hand of the Caucasus.” Belarus has never crossed paths with its insurgents. The opposition believes that the April 11 explosion is a horrible experiment made by the current political leadership, that it is an attempt to justify their repressions after the presidential election on December 19. That time, more than 700 individuals were arrested during the mass rallies in Minsk, of whom over 40 are still in KGB prisons, facing criminal prosecution. In fact, some of them have received 3-4 months on charges of “mass public disorder.”

EXPERT COMMENTARIES

Roman YAKOVLEVSKY, political analyst, Minsk:

“Before the tragedy of April 11, the situation in Belarus could hardly be described as peaceful. There have been mounting economic and political tensions. I mean the events in December and court hearings. What happened on

April 11 will only add to these tensions. We still don’t know the names of the terrorists or those who ordered the explosion three years ago, during the festivities. As for the explosion in Minsk, it has become known that there are antiterrorist task forces operating in Minsk, sent from Moscow, London, and Tel Aviv. I would never denigrate the Moscow team’s expertise, but somehow the pre-sence of their colleagues from Britain and Israel makes one feel more secure, that this time the perpetrators, if not those who hired them — will be found.

“It’s hard to say who would benefit from tensions in Belarus, but the preliminary official information about the metro station explosion makes it clear that whoever did it wasn’t a maniac, that it was a planned operation. Belarus doesn’t want tensions. In fact, its current political leadership — and opposition — want all tensions to drop. What happened in Minsk simply doesn’t make sense. I’m not one reading tea leaves, so all I can recommend is: Don’t jump to conclusions, let alone press charges.”

Roman IMELSKI, deputy editor, International Desk, Gazeta Wyborcza (Poland):

“It’s hard to say who would have gained anything from that act of terrorism in Minsk. All I can say is that the Belarusian opposition and Belarusian journalists believe this explosion may have had something to do with Lukashenka’s regime. Belarus is in a very difficult situation. It is internationally isolated, in a state of cold war with the European Union and Russia. The status of its economy is also very complicated. Belarus is going through a profound crisis. I know that many experts are wondering about who detonated that explosive charge and why. No clear-cut answers appear to be forthcoming.

“About the mounting tensions in Belarus. Perhaps this is something Lukashenka finds damaging to his status. All I can say at the moment is that tensions resulted from the controversial outcome of the presidential election last December, and after the police crashed into that opposition rally in Minsk. On the other hand, we watch the Belarusian official channels and hear about the opposition receiving aid from abroad: Poland and Germany; that opposition members are maintaining contacts with Poland and the European Union. How-ever, after that metro station blast, it appears safe to assume that the official channels will blame this act of terrorism on the Belarusian opposition, saying it was done with Polish money.

“I believe that the Belarusian government will increase pressure on the opposition. I believe that Lukashenka and his court will regard this explosion as a challenge to the Belarusian state, and that he will come up with statements to the effect that he is the only one to defend his country. Minsk will move closer to Moscow. Relations between Belarus and Russia are warmer now than several months back, while those between Minsk and the EU, and the whole West, are getting noticeably colder.” 

 Lukashenka: The Minsk subway terror act has been solved

Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka announced yesterday that the act of terror in the Minsk subway was solved. “Today at 5 a.m. the crime was solved. [The criminals] gave their testimony,” Lukashenka said during a meeting on the results of the investigation. He also appealed to “interrogate them, not paying attention to any kind of democracy and the wails and groans of foreign sufferers.” A day earlier Andrii Shved, the Belarusian Deputy Prosecutor General, informed the public about the detention of two suspects in the case of the explosion in the Minsk subway. One of them is allegedly the executor. “The most important thing is that we know who and how they did it. It is unclear yet why they did it, but it will be made clear soon as well,” he added.