A New Format: How are relations between Ukraine and the EU going to evolve?
The debate on a new relationship between Ukraine and the European Union is ongoing. On January 18, Deutsche Welle quoted the European Commission spokesperson as saying that the Ukraine-EU Action Plan will not be revised “because it still provides many opportunities even without a revision.” As for granting Ukraine market-economy status, the EU emphasizes that everything now depends on Kyiv, which is slated to adopt some more laws to this effect. Commenting on some EU officials’ statements that Ukraine has not yet applied for European Union membership, hoping to have the Action Plan revised, spokesman Markiyan Lubkivsky of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine said his country was ready to do so. Mr. Lubkivsky also announced that the ministry would be working to improve the Action Plan and alter “the philosophy of cooperation with the EU,” which entails a change in the neighborhood policy to that of membership. On his part, ex-foreign minister Borys Tarasiuk, chairman of the Verkhovna Rada’s Committee for European Integration and leader of the Popular Movement of Ukraine (part of the Our Ukraine bloc), thinks that this country can join the EU in the next ten years. “A breakthrough can be achieved as early as this year. For example, Ukraine can be expected to be granted market-economy status. Joining the WTO will clear the way for implementing the idea of a free trade zone with the EU. I am convinced that talks will begin on easing visa regulations for Ukrainian citizens,” Mr. Tarasiuk said in an interview with the Russian newspaper Vremya novostei.
The Day asked some experts to comment on what format of Ukraine-EU relations is realistic in the short run.
Hryhoriy NEMYRIA, director, Center for European and International Studies, Kyiv:
“A realistic format is one that would be acceptable for both sides. In my view, there are three things that could outline a constructive compromise: first, approval of the Ukraine-EU Action Plan, which will determine the prospects for the next 2.5-3 years; second, practical steps toward granting Ukraine market-economy status, selective liberalization of trade relations, joining the WTO, beginning a dialogue on visas; and, third, mutual understanding about opening up European prospects, including the prospect of Ukraine’s eventual EU membership, on condition that the Action Plan is successfully implemented.
“Naturally, from this angle, there should be more clarity in the ‘new reinforced agreement’ mentioned in the preamble of the draft Action Plan. The principles of common values, common properties, and differentiation, which are fundamental to the new European Neighborhood Policy, not only allow but even call for the Ukraine-EU Action Plan to reflect, well before it is finally approved, the spirit and content of the changes that have occurred in Ukraine in the past three months. As the European Constitution Treaty says, ‘The Union shall be open to all European States that respect its values and are committed to promoting them together.’
“The Agreement on Partnership and Cooperation between Ukraine and the EU expires on March 1, 2008. Therefore, in any case, even if there had been no Orange Revolution, one should explore the possibility of updating the existing contractual relations between Ukraine and the European Union. The peaceful revolution essentially changed the context. The EU is now taking a much better view of Ukraine’s membership prospects, of which the European Parliament’s position is also ample proof. Yet, there should be no illusions about an automatic ‘change of heart’ within the European Commission and some influential EU countries. Ukraine must make efforts of its own to ‘help’ the EU update its policies and accept this country’s political ‘Europeanness.’ The time limit is just two years at most. What is complicating the situation is the fact that it is precisely in these years that the EU will be making not only crucial decisions on the Constitution but also quite pragmatic and no less important decisions on financial prospects, the budget for 2007-2013, and admission of the new members, Bulgaria and Romania.
“Ukraine could help itself and the EU by successfully solving at least three problems. Firstly, we must unambiguously state our attitude to certain areas of integration (EU, NATO, SES, CIS, et al.), by showing a strategic preference to integration with the EU and modernized partnership with Russia. Secondly, the institutional innovations that the policy of European integration entails should not be a goal in and of itself. They should be based on an updated vision, strategy, and policy, and involve large-scale staff replacements, which means not only the arrival of new governmental functionaries but also the fact that they should have a European-style background. This primarily applies to a new coordinating body — the Committee for European Integration — that will soon be formed in Ukraine.”
Marius WAHL, Center of European Political Studies (CEPS), Brussels:
“Ukraine-EU relations will apparently go far beyond the European Neighborhood Policy and the Action Plan, heading for an association agreement within five years. It is more likely that Ukraine will face the prospect of full-fledged membership, although this will require that the Yushchenko government carry out far-reaching and consistent reforms. In the nearest future Ukraine may be granted market- economy status and a liberalized regime of trade in steel and textiles. The EU can greatly assist Ukraine in joining the WTO, which will make it possible to start talks on a free trade agreement. Negotiations on a relaxed visa regime can also begin in the nearest future. I think Ukraine will then be invited to join EU programs and initiatives (for example, the Bologna Process in higher education).”
Jerzy Marek NOWAKOWSKI, international affairs editor of the weekly Wprost, Warsaw:
“The most realistic format of cooperation between the European Union and Ukraine would seem to call for launching discussions about Ukraine’s intention to join the European community and modifying the European Neighborhood Policy with a view to preparing Ukraine for EU membership. The European Union should make a list of membership criteria for Kyiv. I mean criteria in both the political and the economic spheres. But these criteria should be clearly spelled out, and I think Ukraine must insist on this. A similar step on the EU’s part would be a clear sign of EU membership prospects. Brussels should disavow the statement of former European Commission president Romano Prodi that Ukraine has no chance of joining the European Union. Instead, the EU ought to state clearly that it is open to your country, provided certain criteria have been satisfied.
“It should be said that Ukraine will find it difficult to meet these criteria. Yet, clearly defining them would greatly benefit Ukraine as a whole, its new President Viktor Yushchenko, as well as the EU itself, in the sense that Ukraine would have a direction to go in and would gradually approach world and EU standards in the political and legal spheres. This kind of clarity concerning requirements is no less important in the economic sphere. Obtaining membership criteria is quite a realistic and justifiable wish on Kyiv’s part, just like the demand to reconsider the current Neighborhood Policy toward Ukraine.
“The European Union is well aware that Ukraine’s political objective is to be granted membership in this organization. This was the common thread in Borys Tarasiuk and Viktor Yushchenko’s speeches. However, you can’t get membership overnight — this is impossible. Instead, Ukraine should make it clear that it has prospects for EU membership. In this case Brussels will say, ‘If Ukraine satisfies the European criteria, we will be open to it.’ This is the least Ukraine can expect to get. Clearly, it will depend on the European Union’s decision about how fast Ukraine will be modernized and what way it will choose at this defining moment. But deadlines are not a good thing in politics. Ukraine may join the EU in 8, 10, or 12 years. The most realistic date seems to be 2017. It would be much better if Ukraine joined the EU as soon as possible, but this is highly unrealistic.”
