Next to a throne there is always a scaffold
One empress once wrote on a monument to her predecessor: The second to the first. Yulia Tymoshenko, the Prime Minister of Ukraine, deserves the title of the first because she is the first woman in Ukraine to ever head the government. She is also the first one to become the prime minister twice, and there are many other things which she, as a woman, did first. However, if we list these things, we risk being condemned by advocates of gender equity. To put things in a balance, let us remind ourselves that at the beginning of the millennium Tymoshenko was also called the only “man” in Ukraine’s government. This characteristic plus her talent for public relations largely caused her further ascension and success. One journalist called her a woman treading sand, broadly hinting at the resistance she has to constantly overcome, in particular that of men, who have always deemed politics and economy their province. But Tymoshenko does not seem to be giving up.
Tymoshenko’s government summed up the results of the first 100 days of its activity. Concurrently, all sorts of political scientists and millions of citizens who listened to them made their own assessment. What did the premier herself mention? As an experienced politician, she knows all too well that offense is the best form of defense, so she launched an attack with the very first words by declaring that her government and she personally have been threatened. She told about negotiations concerning a new coalition under the slogan of uniting Eastern and Western Ukraine. “These talks are not simply being held. Each day steps are taken to discredit the government and the democratic coalition and to plant certain groups within the democratic coalition with the task of destroying it,” she said. She went on to suggest that “it is better to get rid of these implanted politicians and certain groups than to destroy the things Ukraine has been dreaming of for so many decades.”
Then Tymoshenko went on to criticize the Ukrainian parliament for failing to approve the government’s action plan for so long: “Unfortunately, today some bodies live on intrigue rather than efforts to bring benefit to our society.”
She emphasized that despite the absence of an approved government action plan, the government is already fulfilling her draft plan: “It may happen that we will fulfill it before the Verkhovna Rada gets around to passing it.” The premier even claimed that during these first 100 days the government “not only achieved results but also built the foundation for all democratic transformations.”
Well, hyperbole has always been politicians’ weapon, just like the complete absence of self-criticism has been their drawback since times immemorial. However, very few people expected a sensational declaration that the government will overcome the rising inflation rate and ensure that it remains at the level of a one-digit figure by the end of 2008, as is envisaged in the 2008 State Budget.
“I would like to state once again than within six months our government will put an end to this shameful phenomenon, which is inflation,” said Tymoshenko. Her forecast is as follows: “I think that in the next several months we will make progress in terms of prices for 32 most popular consumption items.” This strong move can in itself help fight inflation but it seems that the prime minister pins her main hopes on the macroeconomic mechanisms and levers operated by the National Bank and administrative methods of limiting business profitability and markups. The question is whether business will be able to tolerate these measures after being put on a meager financial diet.
In general the premier’s main problem today is self-definition. She has to finally clarify for herself who she is: a pure and perpetual politician pursuing nothing else but power or a government official for whom national interests are more important than her own power ambitions. If the right choice is made, no one will be able to stop Tymoshenko. If, however, the political component will be given preference at the cost of economy, urgent reforms, and innovations (as we could see during her first 100 days as the prime minister), then various options are possible, and these will not be limited to resignation. The conditions of Tymoshenko’s resignation are already being discussed by political scientists who are close to another branch of power, but the most dangerous thing is the disillusionment of her electorate. Opposition members implanted into the coalition were not born yesterday and have vivid and intelligent leaders. Tymoshenko should take this into account and stop attaching humiliating labels.
The Day asked its experts to assess the Ukrainian government’s performance during the first 100 days.
COMMENTARY
Yevhen MARCHUK (Prime Minister of Ukraine in 1995-96):
I believe that in the current political and economic situation it is very difficult to achieve any concrete result in 100 days. However, I must admit that Yulia Tymoshenko has shown quite some progress in the political sphere, first of all by winning the early parliamentary elections and once again taking the post of Prime Minister of Ukraine.
As head of Ukraine’s government, Yulia Tymoshenko appears to focus on keeping most of her most popular campaign promises, like refunds of the Soviet Savings Bank deposits, coordination of gas prices with Russia, elimination of intermediaries (a significant move, even if it remains victorious), and having the Verkhovna Rada’s resolution on early elections of the Kyiv Mayor.
Polls show that Yulia Tymoshenko’s ratings are increasing, that they are way above those of Yanukovych. I think that she was offered a strong helping hand by the Presidential Secretariat’s clumsy critique, verbal attacks, and dressing-downs. This was especially evident when the Secretariat remained silent with Yanukovych holding the post of Prime Minister of Ukraine. In my opinion, the Secretariat’s critique was largely objective, but the general public was often led to understand that the Secretariat keeps interfering with the current prime minister’s work. Also, it looked as though the Presidential Secretariat had sided with Russia in opposing the current prime minister (which it never actually did).
One of the key problems that Yulia Tymoshenko addresses, and which will quickly manifest itself, is that the current Ukrainian government is not prepared to face the quick increase in oil prices, although there have been all kinds of forecasts to this effect. Of course, this won’t produce a “price chain,” although it is also true that the current government cannot be blamed for the situation that has developed on the price market. On the one hand, world market trends were involved there. On the other hand, Yulia Tymoshenko inherited the previous cabinet’s 17 percent inflation rate’s inertia. Naturally, this situation with inflation, jumping prices could not have been radically changed in three months. However, it looks as though the current cabinet is doing practically nothing except saying that what is happening now is out of its reach. We don’t know what the inflation measures are that our government has taken or is planning to take. I also believe that our parliament will shortly ratify the WTO membership treaty. Here one must bear in mind all the pluses and minuses. I mean that there will be serious problems for the Ukrainian manufacturers, at least in the first phase. They won’t come tomorrow, but we must resolve these problems ourselves because they will affect our people. It doesn’t take an expert to realize that our market will be flooded with goods that our domestic manufacturers will find hard to compete. Then what? Will the executive branch go about solving this problem like another emergency situation? Anyway, there is no evidence that our government is making any preparations to this end.
From the two aspects I have mentioned above follows the key problem of the current government’s strategy. Political struggle dictates tactical problems that consume nerve energy, time, and simply prevents ranking officials from living a normal life. However, this does not mean that strategic matters can be ignored. Therefore, Tymoshenko’s opponents and rivals may well assume that a cabinet that doesn’t busy itself with strategic tasks doesn’t count on lasting long.
My attitude to Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s foreign policy? It is absolutely positive. I would like to stress that she has made good gestures, sometimes getting ahead of presidential structures. It’s not an expert opinion but a Ukrainian citizen’s view. Another important aspect is Russia. After the presidents had reached an agreement, Yulia Tymoshenko made the gas supply accords the way she had planned. Concerning Brussels, she also deserves every credit. Even though she is not an active Euro-Atlantic champion, she added her signature to the so- called letter of three and the letter signed by two. In many aspects Tymoshenko’s team looks more dynamic than the presidential one, yet this aspect is not important in the public opinion field. I would give Yulia Tymoshenko A+ for her foreign political endeavors. Once again, this isn’t an expert opinion but that of any given citizen.
Considering the 100 days of the Tymoshenko cabinet’s performance, she has got ahead of the president of Ukraine in many ways. She is an effective politician, but she is allowing her political ship to be torpedoed by the lack of attention to strategic issues and belated responses to acute economic problems.
