No necktie diplomacy continues
The Ukrainian-Russian summit held last week in Sochi resulted, as Russian President Vladimir Putin put it, in consensus, and the decisions adopted completely satisfy Russia. The arrangements reached is “the combination of two approaches,” which means that Russia undertakes to let pass the full volume of its natural gas through Ukraine and will also supply gas to Ukraine. Perhaps, the most important is that Russia agrees to participate in privatization of the Ukrainian gas transit system. And, as the Presidents said, with the establishment of a Eurasian commonwealth and GUUAM’s formalization, nothing threatens the CIS, although Mr. Putin stressed that nothing would threaten the CIS “in the form it now exists.” It appears that only the meeting between the presidents once more forced the two parties to reach important agreements, though not specific, but agreements on principal things. It also appeared that Putin tried to stress that it was precisely he who insisted that Ukraine would stop “unauthorized siphoning off of gas,” although Leonid Kuchma had given his instructions to this effect two weeks earlier. Finally, privatization of the Ukrainian gas transport system is also not without its ambiguities. Perhaps this is good, provided the issue is really about Ukraine’s linking up with the Russian system supplying natural gas to Western Europe and creating an international consortium on the terms previously discussed in Kyiv. Moreover, Ukraine lacks the funds to maintain the pipelines in proper technical condition. However, negotiations on this subject are still to come, and Russia will obviously put forth its views, which Mr. Putin has so far not made public.
Perhaps it is good that the Presidents agreed, at least in principle, to continue to work on debt diversification: the uncertainty about the ways to solve the problem has only hindered cooperation.
What is remarkable is that Russia, having agreed to let Turkmen gas reach Ukraine, is not going to be an overly patient creditor. “We understand that Ukraine needs more energy than it can produce, and we understand that Ukraine cannot pay for the full volume of required energy with live money,” Pres. Putin said. But the difference between what Ukraine can and should pay “will be registered as the state debt of Ukraine to Russia,” Interfax Ukraine quoted the Russian President.
The Sochi summit has proved that it is possible to negotiate with Russia in amicably, but one has to have arguments. Mr. Kuchma, in particular, arrived with a gas intake prohibition decree, an agreement with Turkmenbashi Niyazov, and moral support from Poland and Slovakia on the issue of constructing a gas pipeline bypassing Ukraine. This is already no longer the gains of the unofficial atmosphere of the so-called no necktie diplomacy, but of simple reasonableness, which will evidently determine the future of bilateral relations. The Sochi summit is striking evidence that there is no more room for “brotherhood” in Ukrainian-Russian relations. And the phrase of the Russian president broadcast by the UNIAN Agency that Russia will not allow Ukraine to compete unequally with other countries on its market only underscores that Ukraine should long ago have been prepared to defend its interests like Russia does — with confidence, reason, firmness, but without hostility. There is no one to complain about. And, in fact, the Sochi meeting is perhaps the first example of how the two countries can come to terms proceeding exclusively from the realities.
COMMENTS
Serhiy PYROZHKOV, Director, Institute of Ukrainian-Russian Relations under the National Security and Defense Council
Russia has once again showed that it can switch to pragmatic approaches. The point is creating a mechanism of bilateral relations that would not depend on the will of an individual. And one needs to respond adequately to this.
I think that Ukraine is prepared for this less than Russia, as the Russians have outlined it in conceptual documents — their security concept, military doctrine, and foreign policy concept. Ukraine at the moment lacks such blueprints or their updated versions.
Currently, this process is being comprehended, and a great deal will depend on how soon adequate measures will be worked out.
On the other hand, concessions have been and will be possible, and their limits are determined by the extent to which they conform to the provisions stated in doctrinal documents.
As far as Russia’s approach is concerned — the creation of the Eurasian Economic Community (which was really not news) and the processes concerning the collective security agreement — it now subordinates foreign policy to domestic policy. This is a normal approach, applied everywhere.
Once we have decided on our independence, there will be of course be conflicts with Russia. The only issue is to try to find mutually acceptable solutions with minimum losses in order to preserve a friendly atmosphere. We should coordinate our interests with Russia’s and seek interaction. I think this possible.
